Saturday, May 04, 2002

Tomorrow provides for a moment of truth for France. We'll see if Le Pen gets his expected 22% or so or if he manages to pull in some wider support. Obviously his base on the Right will vote for him - including those who voted the first time around as well as voterss from some of France's other Traditionalist/Nationalist/Righty parties, but there are two other main sources of votes which could up his numbers. First, one would expect him to peel off some of those who voted for Chirac the first time around. The real question, however, is how much of the anti-Semitic Left will jump the fence. I doubt too many, but we shall see.

Eschaton Prediction: 28%.