Friday, April 08, 2005

Bias Against the Bears

Barry notes that economists who just recently said that $50 oil would trigger a recession are now saying that current oil prices won't do so, and it would take significantly higher prices to actually cause one.

If you predict doom and gloom, and you're wrong, you get blamed both for being wrong and for being a spoilsport. If you predict wonderful things, and you're wrong, you're given credit for being an optimist. No one wants to be on record predicting a recession or circumstances which would cause one.

Strange, really.