I guess we'll never really know if the Romney people and the entire Republican Political/Media Industrial complex believed their own bullshit - we're gonna win! - or not.
Obviously people rooting for a certain team are going to have a tendency to bet with their hearts. There's nothing insane about campaign people operating with a bit of wishful thinking. But that's very different from "all the polls are wrong and we're going to win" which seems to be where they were.