Monday, December 14, 2015

This Will Probably Doom Trump's Campaign

Something seems to do so every week or so.
Donald Trump has crossed the 40 percent threshold in a new national poll, giving the Republican presidential candidate the largest lead he’s held in any survey so far.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday found Trump taking 41 percent support and opening up a 27-point lead over the next closest contender ahead of Tuesday night’s Republican presidential debate in Las Vegas.

I don't think I did/would have predicted Trump's level of current success, but once he started getting high poll numbers all of the "TRUMP IS DOOMED THIS TIME" stories from the people who are paid lots of money to explain this stuff to us were hilarious. The only good information about a primary like this is poll numbers. They certainly can change, and they do, but pundits think their guts know truths that polls cannot reflect. The rich people who gchat with them know special things.

2012 was similarly hilarious with all of the savvy pundits hating Nate Silver. Silver was no wizard. He basically averaged polls and managed to make that actually interesting by forming an extended narrative about them. THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG! NATE SILVER IS A FALSE PROPHET they all cried. It's true that all of the polls could have been wrong. That's possible! But without the polls, you have little more than the voices in your head.