To comment a bit more on the Glassman+Hassett article -- they're emphasizing the "stock market good investment in long run" and "by and hold" aspects of their book. However, despite the spin they're putting on it now, their big point was that stocks were undervalued, and:
Stocks are now, we believe, in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground -- to the neighborhood of 36,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After they complete this historic ascent, owning them will still be profitable but the returns will decline. You won't be able to make as much money from them each year. We believe that in the meantime, however, astounding profits will be made.
In other words, we were previously stupid about the riskiness of a balanced stock portfolio, and now we are in the midst of waking up.
I'm not going to bother rehashing all the various complaints people had with their book -- I just think they're being very disingenuous about what they were claiming. Now they say "we warned that 'it is impossible to predict how long it will take.'"
Well, I predict barring planetary catastrophe the Dow will hit 36,000 one day too, but that's a far cry from claiming that we are "in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground."
On that prediction they were obviously wrong. Fess up, guys.
Tresy adds:
I don't know if others remember this, but Mr. Glassman, when not touting the arrival of Equities Nirvana, was equally outspoken about the bottomless criminality of the Clintons. Not only does this make him 0-for-about-200 in matters punditocratic, it also identifies him as a member of that subspecies mendax pathologicus, whose survivial mechanism, when confronted with evidence of past lying, is to reflexively spray new lies.
No surprises here, in other words.
UPDATE: Brad DeLong says basically the same thing only much better.
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