To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well. pic.twitter.com/NtJcOdA98R
— CEA (@WhiteHouseCEA) May 5, 2020
Monday, July 06, 2020
Monday Evening
This was two months ago.
The Best Testing
Can't even try to keep a school safe if you can't test people in a timely fashion.
Quest Diagnostics says demand for #COVID19 testing particularly in the South, Southwest and West regions of the U.S. has stretched turnaround time for results to an avg of 4-6 days for non-priority 1 patients (priority 1 = hospitalized patients & symptomatic healthcare workers) pic.twitter.com/gTvBLHhJsy
— Meg Tirrell (@megtirrell) July 6, 2020
500 Deaths Per Day
I suppose if they were roughly evenly distributed across the country by population, and didn't grow, a "new normal" might be palatable to people somehow, especially if the LAMESTREAM MEDIA talked about all the good things that were happening under the glorious rule of My President. 15 deaths per day in NYC. A blip locally most places. But that's not how it works...
(also ignoring the long term health issues of survivors, of course)
(also ignoring the long term health issues of survivors, of course)
Sorry, Parents
Now we know they can't open.
SCHOOLS MUST OPEN IN THE FALL!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 6, 2020
The New Normal
America is now truly great.
(CNN)As parents nationwide wonder if it's safe to send kids back to day care, Texas is grappling with a surge of Covid-19 cases from child care centers.Only fix is to do all the things "we" should have done back in March, but, welp...
At least 1,335 people have tested positive from child care facilities in Texas, the state's Department of Health and Human Services reported Monday, citing figures from Friday.
We All Lose The Plot Eventually
Best to just fade away...
People have wondered why Katzenberg and Whitman, in their late and early 60s, respectively, and not very active on social media, would believe they have uniquely penetrating insight into the unacknowledged desires of young people. When I ask Whitman what TV shows she watches, she responds, “I’m not sure I’d classify myself as an entertainment enthusiast.” But any particular shows she likes? “Grant,” she offered. “On the History Channel. It’s about President Grant.”
Katzenberg is on his phone all the time, but he is also among the moguls of his generation who have their emails printed out (and vertically folded, for some reason) by an assistant. In enthusing about what a show could mean for Quibi, Katzenberg would repeatedly invoke the same handful of musty touchstones — America’s Funniest Home Videos, Siskel and Ebert, and Jane Fonda’s exercise tapes. When Gal Gadot came to the offices and delivered an impassioned speech about wanting to elevate the voices of girls and women, Katzenberg wondered aloud whether she might become the new Jane Fonda and do a workout series for Quibi. (“Apparently, her face fell,” says a person briefed on the meeting.)
Even The MLB
There isn't a good reason that the MLB should have better access to testing than the masses, but of course they do and if that better access is not good...
UPDATE: @Nationals GM Mike Rizzo says player COVID-19 tests from Fri still not back this am. Team canceled morning workout. Rizzo: “Summer Camp and the 2020 season are at risk” if MLB can’t guarantee timely testing. @fox5dc pic.twitter.com/j2eJ5PqArm
— Evan Lambert (@EvanLambertTV) July 6, 2020
Therefore
Here we are.
White House officials also hope Americans will grow numb to the escalating death toll and learn to accept tens of thousands of new cases a day, according to three people familiar with the White House’s thinking, who requested anonymity to reveal internal deliberations. Americans will “live with the virus being a threat,” in the words of one of those people, a senior administration official.Take the low end. That's one million every 20 days. 6 million by election day. And it doesn't magically fade on election day, no matter what happens.
“They’re of the belief that people will get over it or if we stop highlighting it, the base will move on and the public will learn to accept 50,000 to 100,000 new cases a day,” said a former administration official in touch with the campaign.
There Is A Tragic Flaw In Our Precious Constitution
I wouldn't want to be president. I wouldn't even want to work in the White House or, frankly, be in any kind of high level "responsible for the whole damn country" position. Couldn't bear that much of the weight of the world on my shoulders. To manage it, you have to either not know or not care.
Lags
As far as I can tell from reading county health sites, test turnaround time in Florida is in the neighborhood of 5 days.
Sunday, July 05, 2020
And Those Would Be
I think this whole thing from top to bottom is funny, but this jumped out.
Students and potentially their parents will be asked to sign a behavioral expectation form, with potential penalties for noncompliance."Penalties for noncompliance." Such as?
"We are hoping to have a series of escalations for dealing with misbehavior," Pollack said. "Look, people are going to make mistakes. Someone's going to forget their mask and we're going to tell them to put their mask back on, but we will be escalating if the misbehavior gets too serious."
Florida Man
Another 10,000+ new cases today. 200,000 cases total. Easy math on how quickly we get to 400,000 cases if that daily rate holds. Maybe it won't!
...Texas numbers aren't out yet today, but 1/4 testing positive in Houston with not enough tests sounds kinda bad!
...Texas numbers aren't out yet today, but 1/4 testing positive in Houston with not enough tests sounds kinda bad!
Houston Mayor @SylvesterTurner says that about 650 people can be tested per day at the city locations partnered with @FEMA. He says they reach capacity at about noon. 1 in 4 people are testing positive for #COVID19 . https://t.co/fWVP6hbHam
— margaret brennan (@margbrennan) July 5, 2020
What's The Plan For Shutting Down Schools
Or, specifically, what's the trigger? How many sick people in a classroom/dorm/school/university before they pull the plug?
All the "opening up" plans I've seen, whatever their merits, all are about enforcing social distancing measures. I'm not sure how realistic any of that is at any level (Pre-K,K, elementary, high school, residential college), as expecting either 9-year-olds or 19-year-olds not to get near each other is a bit nuts, if for different reasons. But if people start getting positive tests, then what?
It's horrible, but wishing for normalcy doesn't make it possible. Yes I am dumb and maybe people smarter than me have this stuff figured out, but I haven't seen anything that is much better than "the plan is... hope."
All the "opening up" plans I've seen, whatever their merits, all are about enforcing social distancing measures. I'm not sure how realistic any of that is at any level (Pre-K,K, elementary, high school, residential college), as expecting either 9-year-olds or 19-year-olds not to get near each other is a bit nuts, if for different reasons. But if people start getting positive tests, then what?
It's horrible, but wishing for normalcy doesn't make it possible. Yes I am dumb and maybe people smarter than me have this stuff figured out, but I haven't seen anything that is much better than "the plan is... hope."
But The MAGAs We Will Always Have With Us
Just damaged people.
While the city combats the ongoing pandemic, Health Freedom Idaho led a group of approximately 100 protesters at Boise City Hall. The protesters are against the city-wide mask mandate and burned masks to demonstrate their disapproval of the mayor's order.
And Then You Forgot
There isn't some magic moment when all the MAGAs become liberals, but there is a moment when they wake up from their bender and refuse to admit that they ever were fans.
The extreme adulation of George Bush was similar, just noticed by fewer people because in the post-9/11 haze, especially, that extreme adulation was shared fully by the keepers of our glorious national discourse. We fret about the normalization of Donald Trump, but at least there's some public dispute about whether or not he is the Greatest President In History. Until about halfway through Bush's second term only online weirdos (I think they called them "bluggers") and maybe Paul Krugman suggested otherwise.
This is a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit. Journalists didn't notice how insane Fox News was because the coverage wasn't really any different elsewhere. Matt Drudge ruled all of their worlds, and they proudly admitted it.
But the deification of Bush ended, and even though "we" forget that now, too, because he paints dogs and hands out candy, his approval rate went into the mid-20s. Though we barely noticed at the time, too, because the press was a bit behind the public and kept writing "comeback kid" stories when there was no evidence of a comeback.
My point is not that it is over, wrecked, done, for Trump. I have no idea. My point is that when he is done he will be forgotten quickly by his biggest fans.
The extreme adulation of George Bush was similar, just noticed by fewer people because in the post-9/11 haze, especially, that extreme adulation was shared fully by the keepers of our glorious national discourse. We fret about the normalization of Donald Trump, but at least there's some public dispute about whether or not he is the Greatest President In History. Until about halfway through Bush's second term only online weirdos (I think they called them "bluggers") and maybe Paul Krugman suggested otherwise.
This is a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit. Journalists didn't notice how insane Fox News was because the coverage wasn't really any different elsewhere. Matt Drudge ruled all of their worlds, and they proudly admitted it.
But the deification of Bush ended, and even though "we" forget that now, too, because he paints dogs and hands out candy, his approval rate went into the mid-20s. Though we barely noticed at the time, too, because the press was a bit behind the public and kept writing "comeback kid" stories when there was no evidence of a comeback.
My point is not that it is over, wrecked, done, for Trump. I have no idea. My point is that when he is done he will be forgotten quickly by his biggest fans.
Saturday, July 04, 2020
Everything's Big In Texas
I know you all know this, dear readers, because you are the smartest and most learned readers on the internet, but the problem with big numbers in this context isn't simply that they're big, it's that they are likely to keep getting bigger. A week ago, "we" were starting to freak out because Texas had around 6,000 daily new cases.
Another Texas record day of new cases at 8,258. At that rate, next week it'll be eleven thousand reported on Saturday, and then fifteen thousand, and then twenty thousand...And that's daily.
Another Texas record day of new cases at 8,258. At that rate, next week it'll be eleven thousand reported on Saturday, and then fifteen thousand, and then twenty thousand...And that's daily.
National Garden Of American Heroes
I don't think Trump is some sort of SUPERGENIUS but you don't have to be to get the racism is popular and conservatives love to own the libs. So I'm surprised he's going with the statue garden. Conservatives don't give a shit about statues, and to the extent that libs give a shit about monuments to racism, well, fine, go stick them in the Trump Garden of Racism, just don't put them out in front of City Hall.
Own the libs! Bayonet them if necessary! That's what the conservatives want. Not some dumb statue garden, and especially not one which has some statues of black people.
Own the libs! Bayonet them if necessary! That's what the conservatives want. Not some dumb statue garden, and especially not one which has some statues of black people.
Seems Bad
11,458 new Florida cases.
I don't think even most "pessimists" (including me!) really have a handle on what it means for this to just keep going, perhaps continuing to get worse, for another 3 months, and another 3 months... From the start there was a kind of "well, by the Fall, we will surely have this under control, even with that orange dipshit in charge." And it's July now.
I don't think even most "pessimists" (including me!) really have a handle on what it means for this to just keep going, perhaps continuing to get worse, for another 3 months, and another 3 months... From the start there was a kind of "well, by the Fall, we will surely have this under control, even with that orange dipshit in charge." And it's July now.
Nobody Ever Accused Don Jr Of Being The Smart One
Rich people, man.
A Hamptons insider was stunned to arrive at a house in Bridgehampton on Saturday night to find a packed party that looked “as if COVID had never happened” — with Donald Trump Jr. and girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle among the revelers.That was last weekend.
Our spy estimated there were about 100 partiers, who our source says were maskless, at the bash at the 51 Sandpiper Lane mansion, hosted by famed Hamptons builder Joe Farrell, who owns the pricey pile and is selling one down the road for $15 million. The event — which comes days after Long Island entered Phase Three of reopening and while COVID cases surge in some parts of the country — had a caterer and uniformed bartenders.
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