Sunday, June 06, 2004

AP Hooey

From the AP:

Despite the ensuing [Iran-Contra] investigations, he left office in 1989 with the highest popularity rating of any retiring president in the history of modern-day public opinion polls. His populist brand of conservative politics still inspires the Republican Party.


Look, this is literally true (though arguably he was roughly tied with Ike, depending on exactly how one would determine this )if it means "retiring president in the history of modern-day public opinion polls up to that point." However, the history of modern-day public opinion polls now includes 2 more retiring presidents, one of whom [Clinton] clearly has him beat.

So, the AP article is technically true, but nonetheless quite misleading.

And, more generally, Reagan only had strong poll numbers between about '84-'86. The rest of the time his poll numbers were low by historical standards, as the chart posted below with the averages confirms. Professor Pollkatz gives the entire picture, which as I've remarked on before is really quite fascinating.


If you look at Pollkatz's graph, the comparison between Clinton and Reagan is interesting. Clinton stumbed out of the gate and had really low poll numbers when he first entered office, but after that his numbers track the path of Reagan's almost precisely, until late in their terms. When Iran-Contra hit, Reagan's numbers plummet and stay low until a bit of generous nostalgia pumped up the very last (but only the very last) numbers. When Lewinsky hit, Clinton's numbers went up and stayed up all the way to the end.