It's clear that this is a dead even race, nationally, right now. The question that's still out there is - what would possibly make Gallup and CBS/NYT think that there are more self-identified Republicans this year than there were in the last couple elections? This isn't about a belief in who is or isn't a likely voter -- they're drawing their registered voters from the same basic sample. Has there been any piece of data out there to suggest that either self-identified Republicans or self-identified Republicans who are registered voters have increased their numbers in the past 4 years?
It's possible, I suppose, but I haven't seen any evidence of it.
...reader n sends in the full NYT/CBS Poll results. It includes a question asking who the respondent voted for in 2000. Answers:
Gore - 28
Bush - 36
Buchanan - 1
Nader - 1
Voted, won't say - 1
Didn't vote - 32