A "Long-time market watcher" revises previous estimate of the median home price in Orange County, CA reaching $1.4 million by 2014...to median home price reaching $1.4 million by 2016.
Current media home price is $570,000. Assuming he means in nominal terms, in real terms he's predicting it jumps (given a guess at inflation rates) to bit over a million.
His prior prediction:
"And that's conservative," he says of his forecast.
This isn't some local broker rallying his industry. This opinion comes from somebody who played a major role in top real-estate consultancies for more than two decades.
How does Hahn explain his brash forecast?
It's light years from the "Bubble or not?" risk debate. It's a sharp contrast with, say, that of Wells Fargo Bank's chief economist, who sees flat prices the next decade or so.
Hahn makes it simple: "A basic reason: the economy."
And: "There is no housing bubble. It just doesn't exist."
Hahn's betting that too many new jobs in this technology hub will chase too few homes for sale. He thinks builders won't provide much help because the region lacks enough vacant land for new homes.
It's a gaudy formula. One that makes me gulp.
"My homebuilder clients don't gulp," Hahn says.
One client who buys Hahn's theory is Miami builder Lennar. Hahn was one of many advisers on its winning billion-dollar bid made earlier this year for land at the old El Toro military air base.
Oh boy.