Indeed, the weird way the press treats Obama as somehow losing because he's not
winning by enough in national polls is quite annoying. Barring a career-destroying scandal, it's hard to come up with a scenario (aside from very popular third party candidate) such that either major party candidate drops much more than a point or 2 below 40% in the general election. In those landslide Republican wins, Carter got 41%, Mondale got 40.6%, and Dukakis got 45.6%.