Saturday Evening

Enjoy

This Is A Great Victory, Sir, The Greatest

A most excellent outcome.

“However, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on other conditions, including the United States compensating for its violations of the Islamabad Memorandum,” Mr. Araghchi was quoted as saying, referring to the cease-fire agreement that Iran and the United States signed in June.

The June agreement — a “memorandum of understanding” brokered by Pakistani mediators in Islamabad — called for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. Yet the deal’s language was vague, and the United States and Iran had differing interpretations of what it meant.

The "differing interpretations" were just that Trump had no idea what he had agreed to, and then decided he didn't like it.

The first draft of history sucks ass.

One For Troop Respecter Tapper

I suppose I should go check to see if he is ON IT.

Morale is plummeting on an American aircraft carrier that's running short of food and other supplies as its exhausted crew wages President Donald Trump's war against Iran, worried family members say.

Sailors and Marines serving on the USS Abraham Lincoln have told relatives about being served a half-cup of rice and two tortillas for a meal, and said the ship's store often lacks soap, deodorant and toothpaste, MS NOW reported Wednesday.

Scurvy AND protein deficiency.

I forget what they changed, but it used to be very easy to search CNN transcripts and now it's less easy, at least as far as I can figure out. 

I didn't go through them all, but none of the segment titles of Tapper's show Wed-Fri refer to it.

Tapper made Troop Respecter his brand but he is pretty inconsistent!

"Privately"

That source's name? Can Daine. 

Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achieve President Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.

Morning

Slacker Saturday.

Friday Evening

Enjoy

The Fourth Way

One failing I will admit to is being a bit too ready to take the bait of newspaper articles touting Third Way as representing a force within the Democratic tent. I don't think you can dismiss them entirely, and they do speak for forces greater than their dumb organization, but the main power of that organization is finding journalists in our premier publications who are willing to type up anything they say.

That's an indictment of political journalism, and worth observing, but it isn't, mostly, an indictment of The Democrats.

Fear of Consequences

Institutions and individuals are not as fearful as I would like them to be that there will be consequences for their complicity when President Democrat, or even just Senate Majority Leader Democrat, is in charge.

We can debate why, precisely, that is.

Ah, Well, Too Late

Likely the Supremos will swat it down with some version of that:

The Trump administration has been ordered to stop construction on President Donald Trump's $400m (£297m) ballroom at the White House.

But it is never too late.

A group of property developers have been ordered to rebuild a Grade II-listed pub that they demolished without permission.

The historic Punch Bowl Inn at Hurst Green, Lancashire, needs to be rebuilt brick by brick within a year, a judge has ruled.

Sure Elon

One depressing thing has been feeling like it was necessary - starting with HYPERLOOP specifically - to swat away Elon's fantasies because they should be understood to be ridiculous without refutation.

You might think about rockets as powerful vehicles that blast astronaut crews and robotic missions off into space. But what if they could be used to send cargo from one side of the Earth to the other, in a fraction of the time it would take a plane? The company SpaceX recently announced a project that aims to use its rockets to do just that.

Most goods, at scale, don't be be need to shipped across the globe quickly. Things spoil. Some time-sensitive specialty production inputs. That's about it. Those that do have plenty of plane-based freight options that can get from airport to airport in under 24 hours.

We have a large number of airports in close proximity to population.  We are unlikely to have a large number of launchpads. Even as a niche product, even if it works it doesn't actually work unless your time sensitive goods can get to and from the departure/arrival points quickly.

Space cargo transport likely will not replace conventional transportation methods, such as sea shipping or air freight. Instead, it offers a new option: ultrafast emergency transport. This type of transport could deliver critical medical products, deploy emergency disaster relief, or supply urgent defense support within a few hours.

The only way to have broad launch coverage is if it operates at scale. If you don't have a launchpad near you, it isn't fast.

Sure we might have 25th century technology eventually, but rockets as we currently have them are not going to provide useful freight transport.

[oops typos fixed]

They Are Begging Me, With Tears In Their Eyes, "Please, Sir, Show Mercy"

I am wondering if there are ever conversations in newsrooms with journalists considering whether they should tone down criticism of Trump (and increase the praise) in order to encourage him to do the right thing.

WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump ​on Thursday told reporters that he believed ‌the war with Iran would be over soon and said the armed forces were experiencing issues ​with supplies of some weapons.

"I think ​it's going to end pretty soon. I ⁠don't think they can go much ​longer," Trump said in the Oval Office ​in a reference to Iran.

I'm not saying this is happening, but it is the case that the probability of ending the war is more likely the more we all pretend Iran has surrendered unconditionally and Trump has managed to get the best deal in human history.

Extra points for "Barack Obama started the war, which President Trump ended."

Gotta have full team effort to create the pretend world for the president.

Jobs

I'm sure others will have more detailed analysis, but the headline number for the monthly jobs report is -23,000.

Morning

Firkin Friday.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Growing Up Trump

I regularly ponder what it must like to grow be be an older child/teen with President Trump. Your sense of what authority figures are supposed to be like must get a bit warped.

Fees

Funny to remember that when Trump briefly declared that the US would run the Hormuz toll both, he came up with 20%.

According to the senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.

Funding Secured

Amazing:

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday investors looking at Elon Musk’s SpaceX should stop thinking in quarters and start thinking in decades.

“SpaceX could be a 100-year piece of paper,” the “Mad Money” host said, arguing that SpaceX should be viewed much like the century-long railroad bonds that ultimately rewarded patient investors. “Maybe you put some away for the next generation or even the one after that.”

...

Cramer acknowledged the stock could face additional near-term pressure with roughly 911 million previously locked-up shares becoming eligible for trading Thursday.

Could be! Or not!

“One day this stock could be a huge winner,” he said. “I just don’t know when that day will come.”

Happy share unlocking (first round) day! 

Treasonous Statements

A mildly amusing thing is that aside from the ridiculousness of all of this, any decent judge (I know many are not decent) would determine that no one could possibly get a fair trial after being called treasonous by the president.

Running On Empty

I've long been mildly curious about just how well our military is actually capable of defending the country. We do have a global military empire, of sorts, but do we actually have plans to stop the Canadian invasion and occupation of Buffalo?

I get that we have many tools for punishing anybody who would do such a thing, or at least we did until recently, but do we have a mobilization plan?

President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Iran war boiled over at Camp David last week, where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on why he had apparently been misled on extreme munitions shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran, two people familiar with the exchange told The Washington Post.

...

Back at Camp David, as he was confronted by Trump over the bare weapons stockpile, Hegseth defended himself and blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for the shortages and for not ensuring Trump was fully apprised of the issue, both persons familiar said. The exchange underscored Trump’s increasing frustration with his defense secretary, who was one of the biggest early advocates for taking military action against Iran, convincing Trump it would be a quick and relatively easy win, according to multiple officials.

But he came from central casting!

I always thought that last bit was funny. I mean I get that Pete was Trump's friend in the television set, and he always loves those people, but he's more "central casting for very low budget military action movie hero" not "central casting for Secretary of Defense."

The latter is more Gene Hackman than Temu Steven Seagal.

Feinberg is a billionaire so I suspect he will have his revenge one day.

Morning

Theremin Thursday