Current Status

As I keep writing, I know nothing about how delicate the various supply chains are. Some people seem to think things are going to be pretty fucked up soon!

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely empty of merchant ships, with only a few Tehran-linked vessels moving through the waterway, following a tense week that saw Iranian gunboat attacks and tanker interceptions by the US Navy.

As of Saturday morning, observable traffic was down to only two very small fuel carriers and one tiny coastal cargo ship, all with ties to Tehran, leaving the Persian Gulf through the crucial waterway, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. No ships were observed on their way in.

FIELD TRIP CANCELLED

Steve and Jared's trip to Pakistan was canceled. I suspect it was always fake - that all of this is just delaying to make time for putting things in place for major military action. But who knows...

Moral Clarity

This isn't important, but I haven't seen that war-on-terror era phrase used much recently.

I have never actually understood what the intended meaning of it is, if any, beyond "killing people I hate is moral, akshually, and you are immoral if you disagree."

Happy White House Correspondents' Dinner Day

I stopped getting annoyed by such things because I stopped imagining the White House Press were supposed to be anything other than what they were. I actually used to think this from Colbert at the 2006 WHCD was maybe a bit harsh, but it's only a bit harsh if you imagine it's about all journalists on the politics beat.

But, listen, let's review the rules. Here's how it works: the president makes decisions. He's the Decider. The press secretary announces those decisions, and you people of the press type those decisions down. Make, announce, type. Just put 'em through a spell check and go home. Get to know your family again. Make love to your wife. Write that novel you got kicking around in your head. You know, the one about the intrepid Washington reporter with the courage to stand up to the administration. You know - fiction!

The good ones are mostly the ones whose names you don't know, the ones whose work goes mostly ignored by their own colleagues who have the access journalism jobs that makes them famous. The investigative stuff, the genuine scoops from lower level whistleblowers, the actual reportng about corruption and similar - that isn't their job! It is sill to expect it from them.

That doesn't mean you have to respect what they do, of course, just understand that they are doing their jobs! Jake Tapper made some defiant pocket squares. He's very proud of them.

Morning

Slacker Saturday

Happy Hour

get happy

Well That Will Fix Everything

Witkoff and Kushner are supposedly heading to Pakistan for Iran talks. I am sure a great deal will be achieved! Vance is sitting at the kiddie table.

Leavitt: "The vice president is on standby and will be willing to dispatch to Pakistan if we feel it's a necessary use of his time"

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 24, 2026 at 6:21 PM

Gambling On War

One hopes this will dissuade others, but I doubt it.

A US special forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested and charged for allegedly betting on that operation, netting him $400,000 in profits.

Event Horizon

I suppose anything is possible, but I suspect that with a guy like Trump, once people sour on him they are not going to suddenly decide they like him again. 

Are we being treated to endless thinkpieces about What Donald (or Republicans) Needs To Do To Reclaim The Center? Weirdly, no!

Our pundits and political journalists are no longer able to fathom a situation in which "moving left" is good advice to anyone.

How Abusers Thrive

Don't do anything to upset him!

The former U.S. ambassador to NATO is urging British and European politicians not to alienate Donald Trump by criticizing his administration’s handling of the Iran war and its fallout.

"Seemed Questionable"

One problem we have now is not being able to tell if Trump is lying because he is lying, if he's delusional because his brain is broken, or if he believes crazy stuff in part because the people around him feed him nonsense all day long.

Donald Trump has again said that the US has “total control over the strait of Hormuz”, adding that Iran’s leadership was so hobbled by infighting that it was unclear who was in charge.

But the US president’s claim seemed questionable in the face of the seizure of two container ships by Iranian commandos and a US report warning it could take six months to clear the strait of mines.

The answer is "all of them" but in which proportions, when?

Morning

Feisty Friday

Happy Hour

Raise a glass to our president!

TMZ Era

I suppose having journalists who report what they see instead of covering it up would be good.

I think a lot of people in D.C. are very circumspect about the fact that the Senate is full of people who are way too old to be there, including Mitch McConnell,” said one reporter. “He has people guiding him around, he can’t really answer questions — it’s really striking, and I feel like a lot of people are very hands off with that. TMZ is not going to be hands off.”

My first visit to the Capitol was about 3 days before 9/11. A friend was a Senate staffer. Had the full tour. Bumped into Strom and Jesse and their entourages. Those guys were already dead.

Stonks

I suppose it won't be too long before we see who is right.

The evidence that investors are overlooking the implications of the current situation is piling up. The war’s end is no longer the point at which things will return to something approaching normal. U.S. inflation was at 3.3 percent last month and is expected to rise further, and the second-order effects on goods that are derived from fossil fuels or rely on energy—in the latter case, all of them—haven’t even hit yet. Diesel and jet fuel, the heavy transportation fuels, are rising faster than gasoline. There are trucking costs and fertilizer costs and plastic and aluminum packaging costs, all of which will spark more core inflation, which hasn’t budged much relative to more volatile benchmarks like energy.

Then there’s the impact on capital flows coming from the Persian Gulf. The major Gulf states are in no position right now to invest, which had hitherto propped up projects and asset managers globally. Losing Gulf state capital might be a bigger deal than losing their oil. The fact that the U.S. is considering a bailout of the United Arab Emirates is a terrible sign.

Redistricting

There was a very high profile cunning Republican plan to do mid-decade redistrcting, supported by America's Greatest President, Donald Trump. Conservative media figures were all behind it! Do we think Fox News viewers and similar are actually buying this shit?

Oh No They Fired Brownie

Guy wasn't qualified anyway.

Navy Secretary John Phelan will leave the Trump administration “effective immediately,” the Pentagon announced Wednesday, marking the latest departure of a top defense official this year.

Just sounds like basic office politics stuff, with Hegseth hating him.

It probably doesn't matter much that he was fired, but it does matter that it doesn't matter, if that makes sense. The guy in charge of the Navy shouldn't be so easily dispsensable at this particular moment.

Elder Care

David Scott had been, diplomatically, not fully able to do his job for years and was running for another term.

US Democratic Rep. David Scott, who represented Georgia’s 13th Congressional District, has died at 80 years old.

They don't want to retire because even the very rich ones can't really purchase the kind of "care" that their staffers will provide for them, at least not if they didn't already have longtime personal staffers.

There used to be regular mini scandals about staffers doing personal duties for their bosses. I'm sure there is an enforced omerta now as so many offices are like this.

Morning

Once again.

Happy Hour

You only get one hour.