Saturday, March 05, 2005
Speaking of Casey
I think it's a big mistake for the Democrats to try to clear the field for Casey to run against Specter Santorum. This is more about Rendell not wanting the primary to drain away attention and fundraising dollars from his race than anything else. I don't believe Casey is necessarily the best candidate for this race (by "best candidate" I mean "most likely to beat Santorum" and not any other considerations).
Let's take a look at the 2000 election results for Santorum. He ran against an anti-choice Democrat, Ron Klink, who despite being a fairly bad candidate and having no money only lost 53-46. But, where did he lose?
The 4 suburban philadelphia counties are critical in PA politics - Bucks, Chester, Montgomery, Delaware. In these counties, Gore won 51-46.
Santorum got 565083 votes in these counties. Klink got 419439. Leaving off the small party votes because I'm too lazy, that makes it about a 57-43 race for Santorum in these counties.
Basically these counties have a lot of middle of the road pro-choice voters. And, in an midterm election you're going to be asking them to hold their noses and actually go vote for an anti-choice candidate.
If Casey can't win and inspire large turnout in these counties he really can't win the election. A contested primary would give him the opportunity to figure out how to appeal to these voters.
Every true believing conservative resident of Pennsyltucky will get out and vote for Santorum. Can Casey inspire voters?
Generally, I think the uncontested primary idea is a really bad one for Democrats, though they still cling to it. So, I'm glad that Pennacchio at least is still in the race, even though the press is trying to pretend he doesn't exist.
Let's take a look at the 2000 election results for Santorum. He ran against an anti-choice Democrat, Ron Klink, who despite being a fairly bad candidate and having no money only lost 53-46. But, where did he lose?
The 4 suburban philadelphia counties are critical in PA politics - Bucks, Chester, Montgomery, Delaware. In these counties, Gore won 51-46.
Santorum got 565083 votes in these counties. Klink got 419439. Leaving off the small party votes because I'm too lazy, that makes it about a 57-43 race for Santorum in these counties.
Basically these counties have a lot of middle of the road pro-choice voters. And, in an midterm election you're going to be asking them to hold their noses and actually go vote for an anti-choice candidate.
If Casey can't win and inspire large turnout in these counties he really can't win the election. A contested primary would give him the opportunity to figure out how to appeal to these voters.
Every true believing conservative resident of Pennsyltucky will get out and vote for Santorum. Can Casey inspire voters?
Generally, I think the uncontested primary idea is a really bad one for Democrats, though they still cling to it. So, I'm glad that Pennacchio at least is still in the race, even though the press is trying to pretend he doesn't exist.
Wanker of the Day
Peter Beinart:
The people who still "mention the fact" are Republican hacks who like to perpetuate the myth that liberals are "illiberal and non-democratic." Casey wasn't denied the opportunity to speak because he was anti-choice, he was denied the opportunity to speak because he refused to endorse the Clinton/Gore ticket.
(via Light of Reason)
BEINART. I think one of the great problems in the debates about abortion and gay rights is the perception that liberals are illiberal and nondemocratic. It's remarkable to me how many people still mention the fact that [the anti-abortion Pennsylvania governor] Bob Casey was denied the right to speak at the 1992 Democratic convention. That was an illiberal thing the party did. And there is an important debate for liberals to have about the role of the courts in pushing social change. Finally, I don't think you can separate these questions from people's larger concerns about the culture. Liberals should believe in free speech, of course, but there is no reason that liberals need to believe that everything that comes out of an unregulated free market is good culturally.
The people who still "mention the fact" are Republican hacks who like to perpetuate the myth that liberals are "illiberal and non-democratic." Casey wasn't denied the opportunity to speak because he was anti-choice, he was denied the opportunity to speak because he refused to endorse the Clinton/Gore ticket.
(via Light of Reason)
Friday, March 04, 2005
Tragedy
I think it's a mistake to draw any conclusions from the tragic shooting of the recently freed Italian journalist and the Italian secret service agent who was accompanying her, other than the obvious fact that in Iraq today you run the risk of getting killed by US soldiers. It's quite possible the soldiers behaved appropriately in that if, as claimed, the car was speeding towards a checkpoint then their actions are perfectly understandable. Or, even if their actions weren't really justified, it's still the kind of shitty mistake which is to be expected to happen more frequently than we'd like. It's a war zone.
And, what can be said about the final act of Nicola Calipari, who by accounts died while acting as a human shield for Giuliana Sgrena.
And, what can be said about the final act of Nicola Calipari, who by accounts died while acting as a human shield for Giuliana Sgrena.
Dreaming of the Ads
Ah, this Social Security thing is going to be the gift that keeps on giving. There's little chance of it passing, and almost every single Democratic challenger is going to be able to run ads saying "Congressman X voted to cut your Social Security benefits..."
Truth Tour
Just got back from seeing a pack of Senators and Reps. do their Social Security road show. It was good. They're feisty and confident. They're not going to back down.
Off the List
I think for now Lieberman has to be taken down from the Wall of Shame, given that he's a signatory to this letter.
The Jobs Over/Under
Barry Ritholtz has something worth reading for econ-geeks about how for quite some taking the "under" position relative to the consensus forecast by economists has been a very good bet.
Today the jobs number was quite good, and the over bet would have been the right one. However, apparently the currency traders were heavily betting not on the over position, but on the WAY over position.
Today the jobs number was quite good, and the over bet would have been the right one. However, apparently the currency traders were heavily betting not on the over position, but on the WAY over position.
Thursday, March 03, 2005
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)