Since the time this was posted earlier, Kim Tinkham died. I, and many others, believe that Oprah has a responsibility to be more careful than she has been regarding what and whom she promotes. It would be nice if she considered such criticisms and exerted a more positive influence with her media power.
Background at the link.
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Automatic Stabilizers
I'm not sure what they teach the kids these days, but when I learned/taught economics one thing that was covered was the fact that we had super awesome automatic stabilizers (UI, food stamps) that kicked in for both regional and national recessions. It's obviously they case that they aren't large enough, and especially don't last long enough, so, yes, we should make them as awesome as promised.
Meh
I guess that's my reaction to the budget Deal Or No Deal. The economy does need more stimulus and it does provide more of that than expected (recognize expectations game). But if the economy needed more stimulus, why haven't they been making it the case? I understand that stimulus has become a dirty word because, well, I have no idea why, but they could have called it Magic Ponies or whatever.
Is Our Journalists Learning
Is there any chance journalists will realize that 99% of "deficit hawks" in Congress do not care at all about the deficit?
The Medium Run Is Always A Few Years Away
A big problem this administration has is the conflict between the realities of the current economy and their desire to be "fiscally responsible," whatever the hell that means. You can't tie the hands of future members of Congress. Yes given the various veto points in our legislative system you can, potentially, pass things which are hard to overturn, but ultimately as we see it's pretty easy for Republicans to ram through more free money for rich people.
Do the right thing for now, leave future worries to future administrations and Congresses.
Do the right thing for now, leave future worries to future administrations and Congresses.
Re-Reporting
It is a mystery why it's okay in journalism world to copy each other's stories as long as you do it in the least efficient way possible.
Banksters
There are good reasons for having a somewhat complicated clunky title process. And even if we believe all of the banks are acting with pure and noble intentions, if you make the system vulnerable to fraud... there will be fraud. Because, you know, some people are corrupt.
Morning
...general revenue will cover the lost revenue to the Social Security Trust Fund.
Maybe the first year or two, but I think this is just a way to hasten the Social Security shortfall. No one was buying that Social Security was in dire straights 20-30 years down the road. Saying it is going to have a shortfall in 10 years might get people's attention and their willingness to "save" Social Security.
Monday, December 06, 2010
They Know Even Less Than What They Say
On the twitter machine Tim Fernholz wrote:
I suppose there's a small chance this reporter was being sneaky and trying to elicit an answer along the lines of, "The Blue Dogs don't give a shit about the deficit, all they care about are tax cuts for corporations and rich people along with subsidies for favorite campaign donors." But it's more likely that the reporter does not actually know that the Blue Dogs don't give a shit about the deficit, all they care about are tax cuts for corporations and rich people along with subsidies for favorite campaign donors, and instead believes they truly care about the deficit. Which they don't.
A reporter just asked how the WH would convince Blue Dogs to vote for budget-busting tax cuts. LOL.
I suppose there's a small chance this reporter was being sneaky and trying to elicit an answer along the lines of, "The Blue Dogs don't give a shit about the deficit, all they care about are tax cuts for corporations and rich people along with subsidies for favorite campaign donors." But it's more likely that the reporter does not actually know that the Blue Dogs don't give a shit about the deficit, all they care about are tax cuts for corporations and rich people along with subsidies for favorite campaign donors, and instead believes they truly care about the deficit. Which they don't.
Conference Call Blogging
On phone with senior administration officials. That's what their names are.
...deal is much stronger for jobs than anyone expected.
...13 month unemployment benefits extension. 2 percentage point payroll tax cut.
...typical $75,000 earning family will get about $3500 between tax cuts extension and payroll tax holiday.
...making effort to assert and reassert president is not happy with all parts.
...general revenue will cover the lost revenue to the Social Security Trust Fund.
...deal is much stronger for jobs than anyone expected.
...13 month unemployment benefits extension. 2 percentage point payroll tax cut.
...typical $75,000 earning family will get about $3500 between tax cuts extension and payroll tax holiday.
...making effort to assert and reassert president is not happy with all parts.
...general revenue will cover the lost revenue to the Social Security Trust Fund.
The '81 Recession Was Short And Not As Deep
The unemployment rate went higher, but job losses were half in percentage terms and jobs recovered to pre-recession peak in 28 months. We are currently 35 months away from the employment peak and nowhere near close to returning to those job levels. So this time I don't think doing a bit better is going to do it.
Extending Tax Cuts
The great thing about doing it as that even as our press tends to ignore the tax cute/deficit relationship right now, as soon as it passes Obama will own the massively increased deficit, while the GOP will take credit for the tax cuts. They're the Bush tax cuts after all.
Genius.
Genius.
SUPERTRAINS
I know little of Dallas or the nature of its rail system and the neighborhoods it travels through, but it is the case in most American cities that such systems should be built in order to change car-centric development patterns (if you're going to build them). Even in my urban hellhole the extensive commuter rail system is underutilized (though at post-1980 record levels) because in many areas zoning and land use decisions have prevented transit-oriented development around stations.
It's Not About How Conservative He Is
The teabaggers will go after anyone who works with Democrats or is perceived as being friendly to them. It's why Orrin Hatch might be in trouble. While there isn't a lot of bipartisanshippyness going on, Hatch and Lugar are people who have worked with Democrats in the past either on somewhat peripheral issues or to find actual compromise. And that just won't do.
I've Got This
I think I've said before (seems true about everything these days) that to me DADT repeal is a big test of the Obama approach to politics. Obviously he doesn't have superpowers and can't use his mind control on the Maine twins or the beefcake from Massachusetts, but it's something that the administration and members of Congress have constantly reassured the Professional Left about, that there was a strategy in place and that it would happen.
Obama's Popularity Is Perpetually Declining
Or, not. As I've said before, the real story is just how popular he is given how horrible the economy is.
A Victory For The Insidious Park Lobby
Planning for more parks in the urban hellhole.
Joking aside, I'm not actually anti-park, it's just that too often "build a park" is just code for "block development." And some development is good! More than that, often parks aren't really built for use by humans and poorly maintained parks aren't really an improvement over vacant lots. They basically are vacant lots.
So, build parks! But build them for people and maintain them.
Joking aside, I'm not actually anti-park, it's just that too often "build a park" is just code for "block development." And some development is good! More than that, often parks aren't really built for use by humans and poorly maintained parks aren't really an improvement over vacant lots. They basically are vacant lots.
So, build parks! But build them for people and maintain them.
Symbols
Oops.
A significant production problem with new high-tech $100 bills has caused government printers to shut down production of the new notes and to quarantine more than one billion of the bills in huge vaults in Fort Worth, Texas and Washington, DC, CNBC has learned.
...
The redesigned bills are the first $100 bills to feature Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s signature. But to stave off a cash crunch as existing $100 bills deteriorate and can’t be replaced, the Federal Reserve has ordered renewed production of the current-design $100 bills, which feature Bush Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's signature and do not have the new security features.
Sunday, December 05, 2010
Actual liberal media
Marcy Wheeler & Stuart Zechman on Virtually Speaking Sundays
5pm pacific, 8pm eastern, on BlogTalkRadio.
Signed,
Not Atrios
5pm pacific, 8pm eastern, on BlogTalkRadio.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Massive Hangover In The Morning
The thing is, even if unemployment falls to some "awesome" level like 7.5% by the election, there's still going to be a long nasty hangover. This has been a very very long recession and people are being economically destroyed by it. It's going to take a long time before people feel any kind of economic security again. It might be morning in America again, but people will still feel like shit.
Reality Bites
I'm someone who pays attention to politics 16 hours per day and I still can't tell you, aside from a few tax cuts and unemployment benefits extensions, what the Democratic economic agenda is. Isn't this a problem?
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation has Kyl and Durbin
All I will tell you about This Week is that they have Bob Maginnis, a "national security analyst with the Family Research Council."
Meet the Press has McConnell and Kerry.
Document the atrocities!
All I will tell you about This Week is that they have Bob Maginnis, a "national security analyst with the Family Research Council."
Meet the Press has McConnell and Kerry.
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, December 04, 2010
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH
Deadbeats
Why don't people just pay their damn mortgages.
No one should buy a house as long as the banksters are free to steal your homes.
No one should buy a house as long as the banksters are free to steal your homes.
It's All Silly To Me
And I honestly don't mean that with any disrespect, just that to an atheist/agnostic/whatever not raised in any faith tradition it's always a bit amusing when purported followers of mainstream Western religions giggle at the supposed silliness of other religions, even to the point of chortling about a mere reference to (not embrace of) them.
Wanker of the Day
Charles Blow.
Really it isn't THE LEFT who is obsessed with Sarah Palin. Most of us keep trying to suggest that perhaps her strategy of uttering inane things on the twitter machine probably shouldn't usually get front page coverage in the Washington Post.
Really it isn't THE LEFT who is obsessed with Sarah Palin. Most of us keep trying to suggest that perhaps her strategy of uttering inane things on the twitter machine probably shouldn't usually get front page coverage in the Washington Post.
Negative Multipliers
As spending extra dollars on unemployment benefits, food stamps, cop and teacher salaries, etc... has positive multiplier effects (output increases by more than the simple outlay), spending fewer dollars has a contractionary impact greater than the reduction in government spending.
With the Recovery Act coming to an end and state and local budgets a mess, I am not optimistic.
With the Recovery Act coming to an end and state and local budgets a mess, I am not optimistic.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Cat Song Video Fight!
This Corner, the Weakerthans, "Plea from a Cat Named Virtue"
That Corner, Old 97s, "Murder or a Heart Attack."
That Corner, Old 97s, "Murder or a Heart Attack."
That Wasn't What It Was Actually About
Because I guess our rulers have forgotten, the 2005 Social Security fight wasn't a fight about partial privatization of Social Security, it was a fight about a reduction in future guaranteed benefits. Not saying I would be a huge fan of giving the banksters opportunity to steal the money, but that would have been a different debate.
The Catfood 13
Bayh's already gone, so I guess it's down to 13 people we can make life annoying for.
Dirty Dancing
It is true that it was a shockingly subversive for the times movie, and even more shocking was how either no one noticed or everyone pretended to not to. Parents didn't blink when their teen girls watched this female sexuality positive movie with a nonjudgmental portrayal of abortion over and over and over and over.
Emp-Pop
Matching its record low in recent (3 decade) history.
The good news is that this means Larry Summers can't try to tell me that rising unemployment is actually good news because it means that more workers are re-entering the labor market due to all the exciting job prospects.
The good news is that this means Larry Summers can't try to tell me that rising unemployment is actually good news because it means that more workers are re-entering the labor market due to all the exciting job prospects.
Rates
I'm guessing that "the Treasury could be directed to keep the current rates while negotiations continue" doesn't mean that Treasury can set the tax rates, but instead means that they can set the mandatory withholding rules and that they could be held constant.
I Wish They Had Some Self-Preservation Instincts
Digby:
I think the least-commented on but important bit of information about this election was that the only semi-real policy issue that was on the table (lots of ad time) was Medicare, with Republicans telling everybody that Obama had cut Medicare. It was truthy not true, but they ran on it nonetheless. Any politician that votes to cut these things is telling voters, "please vote me out office," and, yes the Republicans will have no troubles styling themselves as the defenders of Social Security.
I know that sounds hyperbolic, but it's vitally, vitally important that the president understand that if he goes after Social Security, the Republicans will turn the argument on him just as they did with "death panels" and "pulling the plug on Grandma" and end up solidifying the senior vote for the foreseeable future and further alienate the Party from the liberal base. I know it makes no sense that Republicans would be able to cast themselves as the protectors of the elderly, but in case you haven't been paying attention lately, politics doesn't operate in a linear, rational fashion at the moment. After all, the Republicans just won an election almost entirely on the basis of saving Medicare.
I think the least-commented on but important bit of information about this election was that the only semi-real policy issue that was on the table (lots of ad time) was Medicare, with Republicans telling everybody that Obama had cut Medicare. It was truthy not true, but they ran on it nonetheless. Any politician that votes to cut these things is telling voters, "please vote me out office," and, yes the Republicans will have no troubles styling themselves as the defenders of Social Security.
Probably Best To Knock It Down
The whole Xanadu thing sounds like a really really horrible idea, which is why Christie will prop it up with state money.
SUPERTRAIN
302mph. Not bad.
Though as I've said before, while I certainly would get behind spending obscene amounts of money building such things anywhere it made sense, it's also the case that given limited resources I'd do other things. First I think improving intra-city transit systems, where possible, would be be a priority. And second, while crazy high top speed numbers are impressive, what's really important is average speed. More than that, an average speed of just 90 MPH would be more than good enough, if not awesome, in plenty of places, as long as service is fairly frequent and reliable. 90MPH means 360 miles in 4 hours, making it preferable to both flying and driving in many cases.
Though as I've said before, while I certainly would get behind spending obscene amounts of money building such things anywhere it made sense, it's also the case that given limited resources I'd do other things. First I think improving intra-city transit systems, where possible, would be be a priority. And second, while crazy high top speed numbers are impressive, what's really important is average speed. More than that, an average speed of just 90 MPH would be more than good enough, if not awesome, in plenty of places, as long as service is fairly frequent and reliable. 90MPH means 360 miles in 4 hours, making it preferable to both flying and driving in many cases.
Christie's Priorities
More free money for rich people.
He's "conservative of the year" for one reason only. He's done a pretty good job of pissing off liberals and ultimately that's all that matters to them.
He's "conservative of the year" for one reason only. He's done a pretty good job of pissing off liberals and ultimately that's all that matters to them.
Crazy Ideas
Perhaps politicians should be talking about policies to increase jobs now instead of ones to cut them in order to wage a futile war against imaginary problems 10 years from now.
Predictable
Christie's going to waste state taxpayer money to hire very expensive lawyers to try to steal money from the Feds.
The Economy Of My Friends
Great timing Alan:
There's something to this, just not nearly as much as our Galtian overlords believe. It probably is the primary way QEII can work, but therefore the reason it is unlikely to do well.
They should have given us all shares in the syndicate.
Current monetary policy has worked because it has helped lift stock prices which in turn have fueled the economic recovery, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday.
...
"There's a real upward momentum here," he said. "I think we are underestimating and continuing to underestimate how important asset prices, very specifically equity prices, are not only to shareholders but the economy as a whole."
There's something to this, just not nearly as much as our Galtian overlords believe. It probably is the primary way QEII can work, but therefore the reason it is unlikely to do well.
They should have given us all shares in the syndicate.
Morning and Shit
There will be some votes in the Senate today. I wonder if they'll actually mean anything. It's getting kind of hard to keep track.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
What We Already Know
A Wikileaks of bank documents could be very revealing.
On the other hand, what we already know is bad enough.
"Screw the Shareholders!"
On the other hand, what we already know is bad enough.
"Screw the Shareholders!"
The Jane Hamshers Of The Left
One thing that's been true since I've been paying attention is that everything The Left does is wrong. By The Left I mean everyone to the left of the basic governing power. Third Parties are bad, sitting out elections are bad, putting pressure on elected reps is bad, protesting is bad, primary campaigns are bad, media criticism might hurt their feefees and is bad, saying mean things about Rush Limbaugh is bad, actually discussing your views honestly is bad, etc. Obviously the failure of The Left to take control and run the country does suggest that it is doing something wrong, but no one ever really offers much constructive advice other than...please STFU.
Let's Fret About Deficit Then Trade Your Tax Cuts For My Tax Cuts
Getting from Tapper and Ambinder through the twitter machine that the scoop is the White House is going to trade extending Bush tax cuts for extending some of the tax cuts that were in the stimulus bill and unemployment insurance fund extension. Now obviously I think most of those tax cuts were reasonable and don't mind extending them, but I'm sick of this insane ritual of talking about the deficit as if it's the greatest problem we face for the past 10 months and then... cutting taxes. No wonder voters are confused.
About That Deficit
To make a point made by a million others several billion times, the Villagers see no contradiction between fretting about the deficit and wanting to cut taxes on millionaires.
Jobs
Monthly report comes out tomorrow. Consensus forecast (one of them anyway) is +130K. I'll take the under bet. As usual I'll hope not for a bad reality but for a bad as possible measurement of that reality in hopes that maybe somebody does something.
Irish Trio
I guess we can find some small comfort in the fact that another country is doing it even more wrong.
Tic Tac Toe
I've never been bothered by the wide range of lefty views of the Obama administration, either on the malevolent/benevolent scale or the competent/incompetent scale. People have different views about stuff which is largely unknowable and I've never understood why that disagreement angers people on the internets sometimes. As I think a lot of things are unknowable, I don't have strong confidence in the rightness of my assessment on any particular day, though I don't fault people for coming to their own stronger conclusions.
Still it's interesting that even those more inclined to defend the administration are, at least, on the competent/incompetent scale, starting to lose a bit of faith.
Still it's interesting that even those more inclined to defend the administration are, at least, on the competent/incompetent scale, starting to lose a bit of faith.
Tax Cuts For Wall Street
Senators babble a lot, and occasionally a bit of truth slips out. The big question is just why Lamar! wants to cut taxes for rich residents of New York instead of the people from his own state.
BUT TEH STIGMA
The Fed said its free money for rich people program needed to be kept secret because there was tremendous stigma attached to being smart enough to opening your hands to catch all the free money that was being dropped on you. Whatever.
Unseen
Plucking from Assange's writing, this analyst notes that the goal is not the leaks themselves, but the disruption of the permanent, invisible government that persists despite electoral results, and is deeply dependent on secrecy. Citing Theodore Roosevelt:
via @jayrosen_nyu
Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people....To destroy this invisible government, to befoul this unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of statesmanship.
via @jayrosen_nyu
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Zombies Aren't Merely Corpses
They feed on brains.
BRAIIIIIINZ
So Paul Krugman's prediction of zombie banks creating a drag on the economy has not come true. The reality is, in fact, much worse. Krugman foresaw zombie banks that didn't lend due to capital concerns, preventing the recovery from getting off the ground. We're seeing plenty of that, but we're also seeing zombie banks actively prey on the economy through the foreclosure process in an effort to repair their balance sheets. The zombie banks aren't just failing to boost the economy, they're actively sabotaging it.
I need to eat.
BRAIIIIIINZ
Wasn't My Job to Do My Job
This just came through email (don't think it has aired yet) and I haven't gone through the whole thing yet, but I was struck by this:
I suppose this is the bluster of a failed fool, but the purpose of the commission, however misguided, wasn't to release an unpopular report entitled "How Alan Simpson Wants to Destroy America," it was to...come up with something that could attract broad support.
BLITZER: Well, why -- why didn't you insist? You've been working on this for a year -- and I'll let Senator Simpson respond. Why didn't you insist that you were going to work until you could get 14 members on board and have that in the -- in the bag?
SIMPSON: Wolf, I guess you don't understand. We didn't care if we got two votes.
I suppose this is the bluster of a failed fool, but the purpose of the commission, however misguided, wasn't to release an unpopular report entitled "How Alan Simpson Wants to Destroy America," it was to...come up with something that could attract broad support.
Helicopter Drop
The big problem with using the banking system as the conduit for monetary policy is that we have a failed banking system which lost all their money in the great casino which is run by people who only know how to make money at the great casino. It's no longer a lending channel, it's a gambling channel.
Free Money
Obviously all of those irresponsible homeowners need to be put out on the street, because we need the masters of the universe.
Once crisis goes nova in Sept. 2008, two Merrill Lynch facilities start borrowing everything they can from the Fed. They're called "Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc." and "Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc. -- London"
So far as I can tell, the distinction between London and the U.S. is just an excuse for Merrill to take double advantage of the Fed's bailout facilities. Both borrow every single day once the crisis sets in, and both pledge loads of junk bonds as collateral.
Not Up To The Task
Barring a miracle or just some bad data, Friday's jobs report will tell us we've had 19 straight months of 9.4%+ unemployment.
Diminished Expectations
ADP estimate of private sector job growth is +93K. They don't count them, but it's likely that the public sector shrank. In any case, +93K is SUPERAWESOMENEWS except for the fact that it's still reflects a deteriorating employment situation. Which, when you think about it, isn't so awesome.
Foreign Aid
I used to think this sort of polling was meaningful, but then I realized that people probably, rightly or wrongly (a bit of both), see much of our international military presence as "foreign aid" even if it isn't classified that way.
Indeed
As Digby says, the fact that right before an election the Professional Left had to spend their time worrying about defending Social Security given that we had a Democratic president and huge Dem majorities in the House was a complete travesty.
People can take the "they're incompetent" or the "actually they do want to gut Social Security" positions, but you don't actually have to choose between them.
People can take the "they're incompetent" or the "actually they do want to gut Social Security" positions, but you don't actually have to choose between them.
The System Is Still Broken
Not watching the actual Senate hearing on foreclosure fraud, but scanning the twitter feed of those who are it's quite clear that the financial system is still a complete mess and the powers that be still have not come to terms with that fact. We're still playing the same game we were 3 years ago, it's just musical chairs with no one willing to turn off the music in the last few rounds of the game. Several million homeowners already lost their seats, and now the big boys are going round and round and round and round.
Also, too, Evan Bayh is an ignorant asshole plutocrat, and such.
Also, too, Evan Bayh is an ignorant asshole plutocrat, and such.
So Much Love For GOP Daddies
One thing you can always count in is for our press to develop serious crushes on any GOP Daddy who comes along. It doesn't matter how corrupt or incompetent they are.
Let Them Expire
Of course it won't happen, but Dems should just call their bluff and let all the damn tax cuts expire. Then instead of having this political malpractice having a conversation about "extending the Bush tax cuts" Obama can create his own shiny new tax cut plan. Like he should have done 6 months ago.
Does anybody know what they're doing?
Does anybody know what they're doing?
It's Their Right
So the Republicans are going to filibuster everything unless they get everything they want. One can imagine the press response if Dems in the minority had done something similar, but that's because it's the right of Republicans to do what they want.
It's a miracle they didn't get away with Social Security privatization. AbsentSpeaker then-Leader Pelosi and crazy bloggers on the internets they would have.
It's a miracle they didn't get away with Social Security privatization. Absent
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