Sunday, January 11, 2004


It's fair to say that the CNN/Time poll showing Dean within 5 points of Bush was a bit of an outlier. It's also would be equally fair that the CNN/Gallup poll conducted a mere 3 days later, showing Bush WAAAY AHEAD, was also an outlier. The latest Newsweek poll confirms this. But, listening to Bill Schneider hail the second CNN poll as the Obvious Received Truth and trash the previous one was truly a SCLM moment:

WOODRUFF: All right, Bill. Bill, you talked there at the end about a 22-point spread between President Bush and Howard Dean. Both of us know that it was just a few days ago that the CNN-"TIME" Magazine poll showed Bush just five points ahead of Howard Dean. How do you explain the discrepancy?

SCHNEIDER: Well, we were wondering about that. So we looked at the two polls, and here's what happened. Republicans have closed ranks behind President Bush. In the last poll, the Republican vote was about 12 percent for Howard Dean. Now it's virtually disappeared. Just three percent of Republicans say they would imagine supporting Governor Dean in the election. You know, it may be those terrible things that Howard Dean has been saying about President Bush, or here's another possibility. The last poll was taken over the New Year's holiday. It could just be that, at least among the Republicans, the holiday spirit has worn off.

Jesse says this was more lazy than partisan. No, it's AEI fellow Bill Schneider, so it's partisan.