Friday, March 12, 2004

On China

This is just an idle though which occurred to me after a bottle of cava last night, but I don't think I've read it anywhere else. One of the real economists (cough Brad, Max) out there could perhaps set me straight. But, here we go...

Conventional wisdom says that a falling dollar, while raising the price of imports (And tourism), lowers the cost of our export costs and should therefore be good for our exporting industries. On the other hand, when it comes to these things the US is "unique" for a variety of reasons - one of which is the fact that China pegs its currency to the dollar.

I assume that the value of the dollar is largely determined by things other than demand for our exports/our demand for imports - mostly current and future rates of return in our financial markets.

However, a falling dollar also makes Chinese exports cheaper. Therefore, it's quite possible that a falling dollar has little impact on demand for our exports - or even a perversely negative one - as countries import relatively more goods from China...