Tuesday, March 09, 2004

Worth a thousand Words

Krugman goes for the picture in his column today



And, the closing shot:

Economic forecasting isn't an exact science, but wishful thinking on this scale is unprecedented. Nor can the administration use its all-purpose excuse: all of these forecasts date from after 9/11. What you see in this chart is the signature of a corrupted policy process, in which political propaganda takes the place of professional analysis.


While Max chimes in with:

I was reminded by this report that the Administration projects an unemployment rate of 5.6 for this year. The current rate is 5.6 as well, so if we take this number seriously, the White House foresees no further reduction in the unemployment rate this year. Don't ask me how that is consistent with their other predictions. To answer that I would need some good drugs.


To be fair, it's quite possible that the insane levels of job creation needed to meet their jobs projections would be accompanied by a stampede back into the labor force, similar to what happened towards the end of the Bush I administration.