Sunday, August 08, 2004


There are moments of disconnect, when the reality on the ground diverges sufficiently from the media spin that people start realizing something's up.

The sheer size of the crowds attending Kerry/Edwards rallies are impressive. Something's happening here.

There's something we used to hear a lot -- that incumbents with under 50% approval ratings are in deep deep trouble. We haven't heard it much since Bush dropped below 50.

In national polls, Kerry is almost always ahead. In electoral vote analysis, Kerry has consistently been ahead.

In another year, the press would be (rather unfairly) writing Bush's epitaph and painting him as an inevitable loser. I'm not suggesting that's the appropriate way to cover this (or any) campaign, but they do seem to be doing a pretty good job of not mentioning the obvious -- right now, Kerry's ahead, and that isn't good news for that other guy.