Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Stunning Consumer Confidence Fall

I really do wonder what's behind this:

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October, suggesting growing voter discontent with the economy a week before President George W. Bush seeks re-election.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 92.8, the lowest since March, from a revised 96.7 in September, down from the previous estimate. Americans' assessments of the current economy and their outlook for the next six months fell.

The survey is the Conference Board's last before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 2. Since the index began in 1967, every incumbent president has lost his re-election bid when the consumer confidence index was below 99 on Election Day.

``It's not good news for Bush. He can still win, but this is not a good omen,'' said Delos Smith, a Conference Board economist. ``People are nervous about their jobs and incomes.''


As someone who has been less than optimistic about the economy under Bush, I'm still not sure what has changed in the past few months to lower expectations so much, relative to where we were before. Maybe it's just happy talk fatigue.