Saturday, March 26, 2005


Stephen Roach has what seems to be a comprehensive sober realist view of the current economic situtation of the U.S.

Let me just add that the montery and fiscal policies under the Bush administration have encouraged asset accumulation and physical investment rather than job creation. And, now we're in a position where, as Roach argues, appropriate Fed policy is a fast increase of interest rates. But, due to the crappy post-recession jobs recovery, asset bubble led inflation means that Greenspan will have to hike interest rates in the middle of a fairly weak labor market.

perfect storm? Let's hope not.