Tuesday, March 07, 2006

How Big a Lead?

Chris Bowers is right. If Democrats are up by 40 points will these stories stop? By 60 points? Should the Dems be running a unified national campaign or should candidates focus on local politics? Is embracing diversity of viewpoints a good thing or a bad thing? Just what does it mean in March of 2006 to "Seize Opportunity."

Political strategists can debate the genuine answers to these questions, but my point is that when journalists write these stories based on nothing they can pick and choose the storyline. "Democrats in disarray" can be replaced with "Democrats blunder by demanding too much partisanship." "Democrats fail to have unified message" can be easily replaced with "Local Candidates Unhappy With National Message." The storyline can be flipped upside down to make the same point "Democrats Are Big Losers" based on... what?

The only real evidence to base these stories on is poll numbers. If generic ballot numbers and other polls showed that the Dems were unlikely to gain any seats there would be a place for these stories. But since that isn't the case... it's just wankery.