Wednesday, August 16, 2006


Perhaps the housing bubble is indeed over. Odds of a soft landing are lower than usual, given that it's happening right as ARMs and no interest loans are about to rest in massive numbers.

Philadelphia, oddly, never seems to track with national trends that much. It isn't so much countercyclical here but noncyclical. Things just float along without many ups and downs. Sure there's been housing price appreciation and probably a localized bubble in center city, but I don't predict any big disaster locally.