Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Obama and Clinton

I guess I should explain a bit more. The dynamics of this presidential race, barring something weird happening, is going to be about Hillary and the contest to be NotHillary. There are two ways to try to be NotHillary - you can nuke everybody else in the race or you can set yourself up to be the AntiHillary and try to nuke her. I assume someone will by the designated Clinton nuker, whether successful or not, but it's pretty damn hard to see Obama being that guy. Instead, he'll join in this little dance which Grover Norquist got exactly right:

I passed out a piece on 2008 and I’ll summarize it. My assumption is that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. I believe the debates will be Hillary Clinton and seven guys sitting around a table, her chair will be four inches taller than everybody else’s, and Biden will say things like, “I was thinking today how clever and brilliant and witty Hillary was, which reminded me that Evan Bayh is an idiot.” And so, they’ll kick each other under the table while praising Hillary, and then one of them gets to be vice president. So that’s my operating assumption on the Democratic Party.

I think Clinton is beatable, but someone has to take the battle to her, someone with widespread popularity. Obama probably could to it, but I don't see him wanting to. I see him kicking the other guys under the table while singing her praises, winning the Veepstakes.