Thursday, November 09, 2006


Well, the magic power of market predictions is not so magic.

Price for Republican Party 2006 Mid Term Election Control at

The magic market was heavily predicting Senate control would remain with the Republicans. Oops.

And, hey, so was I. But the idea that there's something magical about market aggregated preferences seems to have infected the minds of too many people. They provide a cute distillation of conventional wisdom, but that's all.