Tuesday, January 22, 2008

The Inevitable Financial Apocalypse

Just kidding. A few people are confused about my "not sure there will be a bad recession" assertion combined with my obsession with documenting various indications and predictions of total financial meltdown.

I don't think the apocalypse is a likely event. I think that, going forward, there will be a continuing decline in the labor market over the next few months. The foreclosure crisis will continue, with foreclosure levels increasing somewhat. States and local municipalities are going to have big problems dealing with the costs of this, especially in areas where there was a lot of speculation. There will probably be more homebuilders going belly up.

The Feds will do what they have to do to prevent, say, a major bank from going under, for better or for worse.

...adding that I do think moderate to serious economic pain is coming, and that it won't be quick. It might be a long and drawn out period of little-to-no-growth, and there might be an actual recession in there. Certainly there will be regions which are in recession territory if not the economy as a whole.