Monday, May 19, 2008

Weekend Update

Democrats pick up some ground.

poblano does interesting stuff, and he's got a great sense for graphical design of electoral projections. Tufte would be proud.

He estimates a regression model using polling data, and then runs a Monte Carlo simulation using that model to get a distribution of electoral results.

Better method of analyzing the head-to-heads than deciding the answer you want, and looking for data points to support it.