Tuesday, October 21, 2008


The idea that the McCain campaign is going to make a real effort to beat Obama in this state now is amusing. Or, to put it another way, if McCain does win Pennsylvania than all the polling in this election is completely wrong for whatever reason and McCain's going to win a bunch of other Kerry states too. Pennsylvania was close in '04. Very close. 51-49. But the polls before the election were also close. Very close.

The Pennsylvania polls
are now not close at all. Many months ago I thought PA would be hard for Obama. But it turns out I was wrong, probably because I underestimated the number of moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs who will actually vote for a Democrat and overestimated the number of conservatives and old people (this is a very old state) in the 'T' who won't vote for Obama.