Monday, July 20, 2009


Nobody could've predicted...
By any measure, the Fed is in the hole with all three SPVs. Its own estimates are that the amount by which the fair value of the net portfolio assets of each vehicle falls short of the outstanding balance of the loans extended to each of these vehicles (including accrued interest) is US$ 3.77 billion for Maiden Lane I, US$ 1.97 billion for Maiden Lane II and US$ 2.82 billion for Maiden Lane III. This is likely to be an underestimate of the true loss, because the reported fair value of the assets in the Maiden Lane vehicles is likely to overstate the present value of their held-to-maturity net cash flows. Much of the assets is illiquid, especially those in the AIG-related SPVs, Maiden Lane II and III. In an earlier post on this subject I wrote “The Bear Stearns-related assets are likely to be rubbish. Maiden Lane II and III I know less about.” Thanks to the Monthly Report on Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet I now know that I may have overstated the degree of awfulness of the Bear Stearns legacy assets. I almost surely also overestimated the quality of the AIG legacy assets.