Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Swing State Blues

Every four years PA is classified as a swing state. Every four years, as the election approaches, there's some media narrative pushed by the Republican campaigns (which, given ad buys, I think they believe) that they're really really going to win PA no really their internal polling tells them that.

PA is a swing state in that the vote is usually fairly close and no Dem campaign can ignore it. Gotta put the work in. But it is never (never say never, things change, but you know what I mean) some sort of wild card state where Republicans can pull off an upset victory. PA will go Republican only if it's a Republican that is having a near landslide night. So, no, there is no "divert resources from Ohio and Florida and North Carolina and Indiana and Virginia and focus on PA" strategy that makes sense. If all of those states tumble, PA could too, but then the Republicans will already have won. The only reason for them to waste money in PA is to draw Dem resources into it, but given that money isn't really a constraint in modern presidential campaigns, there isn't all that much point in doing that either.