Friday, February 23, 2018

Leaving New York City

OK, I never lived in New York City, but at some point real estate prices hit a point (and my tastes changed) such that I realized I didn't want to live in New York City anymore. In your 20s you can live in flop houses with several roommates, etc..., but most of us don't imagine living that way for the rest of our lives. So, put your time in living like a student with the idea that eventually your income will go up enough that you'll be able to set yourself up long term. Obviously in NYC that doesn't mean the 3000 sq. ft detached home, but it does mean finding a place you can imagine living "the rest of your life."

I don't know what the overall long term trend in the Bay Area is, but prices have certainly hit the point where even if you can afford to go live a few years, unless you're getting techbro VC money, at the moment it's impossible to envision being able to stick around longterm. And it isn't just SF, it's the entire very large area.
Rent a moving truck from Las Vegas to San Jose and you'll pay about $100. In the opposite direction, the same truck will cost you 16 times that, or nearly $2,000.

What accounts for the difference? The simple laws of supply and demand, says economist Mark J. Perry. With so many people leaving the Bay Area, there are not enough rental trucks to go around. Perry, a University of Michigan professor, published his findings in a new study with public policy think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

CBS News reported recently that operators of a San Jose U-Haul business have trouble getting their rental vans back "because so many are on a one-way ticket out of town." The revelation inspired Perry to compare the costs of U-Haul rentals for trucks leaving San Jose versus those heading into the city.

Comparing moving truck rates isn't a new methodology, and these kinds of points always have a "nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded" element to them, but while supply and demand logic might work for some things - if there aren't enough people around to be supermarket cashiers, eventually they gotta raise the wages if they want to hire anyone - it doesn't work as well for jobs like teaching which have less flexibility.