Monday, May 03, 2021

Ah, Well, Nevertheless

Chase everybody who wants one. Not the people in the Ohio Diner set in the NYT building.
As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

"Herd immunity" was generally oversold and misunderstood, and similarly this piece conveys the impression the "not herd immunity" is necessarily super bad, but... get those vaccines in arms!!!

I am not a public health expert and I don't play one on this blog, but I do think that because the US never had anything resembling a uniform "lockdown," there still isn't an appreciation of just how much locking down mattered (and because the US didn't do it, how Covid cases are still really high!).

Other countries haven't had the greatest track records, either, but the pattern is much easier to see: lock down and cases fall, remove lockdown and cases rise, wait too long and the curve shoots up fast.  

When "everyone" but not everyone is vaccinated, there will be zero public restrictions or social restraints.  And people will still be getting sick and dying. Probably more than a few.  Maybe just "bad flu season" but... that's not so good!  

People point to the UK's fast first dose vaccination, but there hasn't been indoor dining in most of the country since November, and in none of it since around Xmas (even now).