"Predictions Markets"

The easiest signal for "is this person a dumbass" is someone placing faith in these gambling sites, which might only be meaningful if the market is thin enough and someone might have inside information on something.

Maybe Zohran wins an election 2 weeks ago, and maybe Lander or someone would emerge if you had another month to go. Markets have Cuomo back as a 3:1 favorite for now though. pic.twitter.com/1iAJsYE0Hc

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 23, 2025

It is extra funny coming from Mr. Politics Stats Guy - we don't need you Nate, we have the gambling site graph! You keep telling us that!