It just occurred to me that the last two downturns - Great and Covid - were quite acute and sudden. The former had a slow recovery time - thanks, Obama - and the latter a quick one, but in both cases the onsets were quick.
I think "we" sort of expect them to be like that, now, but neither of them were "normal."
I'm not predicting one. I'm just saying that it generally takes awhile for things like tariff increases to percolate through the economy.