Once upon a time Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins were both senators from Maine. I'm not going to give Snowe much credit, either, but she was occasionally the moderate that Collins has long pretended to be, while Collins has only ever been a moderate when she was sure her vote wouldn't matter.
Collins has always benefitted from compliant journalists portraying her as she wishes to be portrayed. I am not going to place any bets against her tomorrow, but her losing would be satisfying!