This WaPo article is, as they say, a "must read." Short version: Even without cuts in guaranteed benefits, with the "clawback" in the Bush Social Security program, 32% of workers who divert their payroll taxes would do worse than those who don't, using the unrealisitically high rates of return assumed by the SSA actuaries.
Under rates of return which sensible people believe in, and which are compatible with assumptions about the economy made by the SSA actuaries, 71% of workers would be worse off.
Kevin, and Max have more.
