Saturday, December 04, 2010
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH
Deadbeats
Why don't people just pay their damn mortgages.
No one should buy a house as long as the banksters are free to steal your homes.
No one should buy a house as long as the banksters are free to steal your homes.
It's All Silly To Me
And I honestly don't mean that with any disrespect, just that to an atheist/agnostic/whatever not raised in any faith tradition it's always a bit amusing when purported followers of mainstream Western religions giggle at the supposed silliness of other religions, even to the point of chortling about a mere reference to (not embrace of) them.
Wanker of the Day
Charles Blow.
Really it isn't THE LEFT who is obsessed with Sarah Palin. Most of us keep trying to suggest that perhaps her strategy of uttering inane things on the twitter machine probably shouldn't usually get front page coverage in the Washington Post.
Really it isn't THE LEFT who is obsessed with Sarah Palin. Most of us keep trying to suggest that perhaps her strategy of uttering inane things on the twitter machine probably shouldn't usually get front page coverage in the Washington Post.
Negative Multipliers
As spending extra dollars on unemployment benefits, food stamps, cop and teacher salaries, etc... has positive multiplier effects (output increases by more than the simple outlay), spending fewer dollars has a contractionary impact greater than the reduction in government spending.
With the Recovery Act coming to an end and state and local budgets a mess, I am not optimistic.
With the Recovery Act coming to an end and state and local budgets a mess, I am not optimistic.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Cat Song Video Fight!
This Corner, the Weakerthans, "Plea from a Cat Named Virtue"
That Corner, Old 97s, "Murder or a Heart Attack."
That Corner, Old 97s, "Murder or a Heart Attack."
That Wasn't What It Was Actually About
Because I guess our rulers have forgotten, the 2005 Social Security fight wasn't a fight about partial privatization of Social Security, it was a fight about a reduction in future guaranteed benefits. Not saying I would be a huge fan of giving the banksters opportunity to steal the money, but that would have been a different debate.
The Catfood 13
Bayh's already gone, so I guess it's down to 13 people we can make life annoying for.
Dirty Dancing
It is true that it was a shockingly subversive for the times movie, and even more shocking was how either no one noticed or everyone pretended to not to. Parents didn't blink when their teen girls watched this female sexuality positive movie with a nonjudgmental portrayal of abortion over and over and over and over.
Emp-Pop
Matching its record low in recent (3 decade) history.
The good news is that this means Larry Summers can't try to tell me that rising unemployment is actually good news because it means that more workers are re-entering the labor market due to all the exciting job prospects.
The good news is that this means Larry Summers can't try to tell me that rising unemployment is actually good news because it means that more workers are re-entering the labor market due to all the exciting job prospects.
Rates
I'm guessing that "the Treasury could be directed to keep the current rates while negotiations continue" doesn't mean that Treasury can set the tax rates, but instead means that they can set the mandatory withholding rules and that they could be held constant.
I Wish They Had Some Self-Preservation Instincts
Digby:
I think the least-commented on but important bit of information about this election was that the only semi-real policy issue that was on the table (lots of ad time) was Medicare, with Republicans telling everybody that Obama had cut Medicare. It was truthy not true, but they ran on it nonetheless. Any politician that votes to cut these things is telling voters, "please vote me out office," and, yes the Republicans will have no troubles styling themselves as the defenders of Social Security.
I know that sounds hyperbolic, but it's vitally, vitally important that the president understand that if he goes after Social Security, the Republicans will turn the argument on him just as they did with "death panels" and "pulling the plug on Grandma" and end up solidifying the senior vote for the foreseeable future and further alienate the Party from the liberal base. I know it makes no sense that Republicans would be able to cast themselves as the protectors of the elderly, but in case you haven't been paying attention lately, politics doesn't operate in a linear, rational fashion at the moment. After all, the Republicans just won an election almost entirely on the basis of saving Medicare.
I think the least-commented on but important bit of information about this election was that the only semi-real policy issue that was on the table (lots of ad time) was Medicare, with Republicans telling everybody that Obama had cut Medicare. It was truthy not true, but they ran on it nonetheless. Any politician that votes to cut these things is telling voters, "please vote me out office," and, yes the Republicans will have no troubles styling themselves as the defenders of Social Security.
Probably Best To Knock It Down
The whole Xanadu thing sounds like a really really horrible idea, which is why Christie will prop it up with state money.
SUPERTRAIN
302mph. Not bad.
Though as I've said before, while I certainly would get behind spending obscene amounts of money building such things anywhere it made sense, it's also the case that given limited resources I'd do other things. First I think improving intra-city transit systems, where possible, would be be a priority. And second, while crazy high top speed numbers are impressive, what's really important is average speed. More than that, an average speed of just 90 MPH would be more than good enough, if not awesome, in plenty of places, as long as service is fairly frequent and reliable. 90MPH means 360 miles in 4 hours, making it preferable to both flying and driving in many cases.
Though as I've said before, while I certainly would get behind spending obscene amounts of money building such things anywhere it made sense, it's also the case that given limited resources I'd do other things. First I think improving intra-city transit systems, where possible, would be be a priority. And second, while crazy high top speed numbers are impressive, what's really important is average speed. More than that, an average speed of just 90 MPH would be more than good enough, if not awesome, in plenty of places, as long as service is fairly frequent and reliable. 90MPH means 360 miles in 4 hours, making it preferable to both flying and driving in many cases.
Christie's Priorities
More free money for rich people.
He's "conservative of the year" for one reason only. He's done a pretty good job of pissing off liberals and ultimately that's all that matters to them.
He's "conservative of the year" for one reason only. He's done a pretty good job of pissing off liberals and ultimately that's all that matters to them.
Crazy Ideas
Perhaps politicians should be talking about policies to increase jobs now instead of ones to cut them in order to wage a futile war against imaginary problems 10 years from now.
Predictable
Christie's going to waste state taxpayer money to hire very expensive lawyers to try to steal money from the Feds.
The Economy Of My Friends
Great timing Alan:
There's something to this, just not nearly as much as our Galtian overlords believe. It probably is the primary way QEII can work, but therefore the reason it is unlikely to do well.
They should have given us all shares in the syndicate.
Current monetary policy has worked because it has helped lift stock prices which in turn have fueled the economic recovery, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday.
...
"There's a real upward momentum here," he said. "I think we are underestimating and continuing to underestimate how important asset prices, very specifically equity prices, are not only to shareholders but the economy as a whole."
There's something to this, just not nearly as much as our Galtian overlords believe. It probably is the primary way QEII can work, but therefore the reason it is unlikely to do well.
They should have given us all shares in the syndicate.
Morning and Shit
There will be some votes in the Senate today. I wonder if they'll actually mean anything. It's getting kind of hard to keep track.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
What We Already Know
A Wikileaks of bank documents could be very revealing.
On the other hand, what we already know is bad enough.
"Screw the Shareholders!"
On the other hand, what we already know is bad enough.
"Screw the Shareholders!"
The Jane Hamshers Of The Left
One thing that's been true since I've been paying attention is that everything The Left does is wrong. By The Left I mean everyone to the left of the basic governing power. Third Parties are bad, sitting out elections are bad, putting pressure on elected reps is bad, protesting is bad, primary campaigns are bad, media criticism might hurt their feefees and is bad, saying mean things about Rush Limbaugh is bad, actually discussing your views honestly is bad, etc. Obviously the failure of The Left to take control and run the country does suggest that it is doing something wrong, but no one ever really offers much constructive advice other than...please STFU.
Let's Fret About Deficit Then Trade Your Tax Cuts For My Tax Cuts
Getting from Tapper and Ambinder through the twitter machine that the scoop is the White House is going to trade extending Bush tax cuts for extending some of the tax cuts that were in the stimulus bill and unemployment insurance fund extension. Now obviously I think most of those tax cuts were reasonable and don't mind extending them, but I'm sick of this insane ritual of talking about the deficit as if it's the greatest problem we face for the past 10 months and then... cutting taxes. No wonder voters are confused.
About That Deficit
To make a point made by a million others several billion times, the Villagers see no contradiction between fretting about the deficit and wanting to cut taxes on millionaires.
Jobs
Monthly report comes out tomorrow. Consensus forecast (one of them anyway) is +130K. I'll take the under bet. As usual I'll hope not for a bad reality but for a bad as possible measurement of that reality in hopes that maybe somebody does something.
Irish Trio
I guess we can find some small comfort in the fact that another country is doing it even more wrong.
Tic Tac Toe
I've never been bothered by the wide range of lefty views of the Obama administration, either on the malevolent/benevolent scale or the competent/incompetent scale. People have different views about stuff which is largely unknowable and I've never understood why that disagreement angers people on the internets sometimes. As I think a lot of things are unknowable, I don't have strong confidence in the rightness of my assessment on any particular day, though I don't fault people for coming to their own stronger conclusions.
Still it's interesting that even those more inclined to defend the administration are, at least, on the competent/incompetent scale, starting to lose a bit of faith.
Still it's interesting that even those more inclined to defend the administration are, at least, on the competent/incompetent scale, starting to lose a bit of faith.
Tax Cuts For Wall Street
Senators babble a lot, and occasionally a bit of truth slips out. The big question is just why Lamar! wants to cut taxes for rich residents of New York instead of the people from his own state.
BUT TEH STIGMA
The Fed said its free money for rich people program needed to be kept secret because there was tremendous stigma attached to being smart enough to opening your hands to catch all the free money that was being dropped on you. Whatever.
Unseen
Plucking from Assange's writing, this analyst notes that the goal is not the leaks themselves, but the disruption of the permanent, invisible government that persists despite electoral results, and is deeply dependent on secrecy. Citing Theodore Roosevelt:
via @jayrosen_nyu
Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people....To destroy this invisible government, to befoul this unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of statesmanship.
via @jayrosen_nyu
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Zombies Aren't Merely Corpses
They feed on brains.
BRAIIIIIINZ
So Paul Krugman's prediction of zombie banks creating a drag on the economy has not come true. The reality is, in fact, much worse. Krugman foresaw zombie banks that didn't lend due to capital concerns, preventing the recovery from getting off the ground. We're seeing plenty of that, but we're also seeing zombie banks actively prey on the economy through the foreclosure process in an effort to repair their balance sheets. The zombie banks aren't just failing to boost the economy, they're actively sabotaging it.
I need to eat.
BRAIIIIIINZ
Wasn't My Job to Do My Job
This just came through email (don't think it has aired yet) and I haven't gone through the whole thing yet, but I was struck by this:
I suppose this is the bluster of a failed fool, but the purpose of the commission, however misguided, wasn't to release an unpopular report entitled "How Alan Simpson Wants to Destroy America," it was to...come up with something that could attract broad support.
BLITZER: Well, why -- why didn't you insist? You've been working on this for a year -- and I'll let Senator Simpson respond. Why didn't you insist that you were going to work until you could get 14 members on board and have that in the -- in the bag?
SIMPSON: Wolf, I guess you don't understand. We didn't care if we got two votes.
I suppose this is the bluster of a failed fool, but the purpose of the commission, however misguided, wasn't to release an unpopular report entitled "How Alan Simpson Wants to Destroy America," it was to...come up with something that could attract broad support.
Helicopter Drop
The big problem with using the banking system as the conduit for monetary policy is that we have a failed banking system which lost all their money in the great casino which is run by people who only know how to make money at the great casino. It's no longer a lending channel, it's a gambling channel.
Free Money
Obviously all of those irresponsible homeowners need to be put out on the street, because we need the masters of the universe.
Once crisis goes nova in Sept. 2008, two Merrill Lynch facilities start borrowing everything they can from the Fed. They're called "Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc." and "Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc. -- London"
So far as I can tell, the distinction between London and the U.S. is just an excuse for Merrill to take double advantage of the Fed's bailout facilities. Both borrow every single day once the crisis sets in, and both pledge loads of junk bonds as collateral.
Not Up To The Task
Barring a miracle or just some bad data, Friday's jobs report will tell us we've had 19 straight months of 9.4%+ unemployment.
Diminished Expectations
ADP estimate of private sector job growth is +93K. They don't count them, but it's likely that the public sector shrank. In any case, +93K is SUPERAWESOMENEWS except for the fact that it's still reflects a deteriorating employment situation. Which, when you think about it, isn't so awesome.
Foreign Aid
I used to think this sort of polling was meaningful, but then I realized that people probably, rightly or wrongly (a bit of both), see much of our international military presence as "foreign aid" even if it isn't classified that way.
Indeed
As Digby says, the fact that right before an election the Professional Left had to spend their time worrying about defending Social Security given that we had a Democratic president and huge Dem majorities in the House was a complete travesty.
People can take the "they're incompetent" or the "actually they do want to gut Social Security" positions, but you don't actually have to choose between them.
People can take the "they're incompetent" or the "actually they do want to gut Social Security" positions, but you don't actually have to choose between them.
The System Is Still Broken
Not watching the actual Senate hearing on foreclosure fraud, but scanning the twitter feed of those who are it's quite clear that the financial system is still a complete mess and the powers that be still have not come to terms with that fact. We're still playing the same game we were 3 years ago, it's just musical chairs with no one willing to turn off the music in the last few rounds of the game. Several million homeowners already lost their seats, and now the big boys are going round and round and round and round.
Also, too, Evan Bayh is an ignorant asshole plutocrat, and such.
Also, too, Evan Bayh is an ignorant asshole plutocrat, and such.
So Much Love For GOP Daddies
One thing you can always count in is for our press to develop serious crushes on any GOP Daddy who comes along. It doesn't matter how corrupt or incompetent they are.
Let Them Expire
Of course it won't happen, but Dems should just call their bluff and let all the damn tax cuts expire. Then instead of having this political malpractice having a conversation about "extending the Bush tax cuts" Obama can create his own shiny new tax cut plan. Like he should have done 6 months ago.
Does anybody know what they're doing?
Does anybody know what they're doing?
It's Their Right
So the Republicans are going to filibuster everything unless they get everything they want. One can imagine the press response if Dems in the minority had done something similar, but that's because it's the right of Republicans to do what they want.
It's a miracle they didn't get away with Social Security privatization. AbsentSpeaker then-Leader Pelosi and crazy bloggers on the internets they would have.
It's a miracle they didn't get away with Social Security privatization. Absent
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Evening Thread
So important news of the day is that Steve King thinks Obama is blacketyblackblackblackblackBLACKBLACKcountBlacketyblackula.
Executive Order Shmorder
Now:
Then:
President Obama's deficit commission is likely to delay a vote, originally set for Wednesday, on a plan to rein in the soaring national debt, according to congressional sources.
As commission chairmen Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson huddle one-on-one with other members in hopes of assembling a respectable majority, sources said Tuesday that a vote later in the week is looking more likely.
Then:
Furthermore, 14 out of 18 votes needed to report recommendations, and recommendations must be reported to Congress by December 1, 2010.
Preznit Giv Me Slurpee
Oh boy.
...on the twitter chucktoddler sez:
Washington (CNN) -- President Barack Obama told GOP leaders behind closed doors Tuesday that he had failed to reach across party lines enough during his first two years in office, a senior administration official told CNN.
...on the twitter chucktoddler sez:
Gibbs confirms Cantor statement that POTUS admitted he could have reached out more but Gibbs said GOPers did not offer any similar retort
#Fail
They're moving the goalposts of course, but lets cheer on the likely failure of the catfood commission. We should remind the worst person in the world, Maya MacGuineas, that the point wasn't to come up with ideas. Ideas are easy. The point was to come up with a plan that was broadly acceptable, with enough to placate both sides.
SOTU It Is?
I guess I had some small hope that post-election Obama would come out swinging on the economy and try to ram through something that might actually help. Oh well. Maybe state of the union?
The People's Business
I suppose there isn't much point in the House actually trying to do something useful only for it to go die in the Senate, but a schedule like that doesn't exactly convey the message that they comprehend that there are a few wee problems at the moment.
Neither does a slurpee summit.
Neither does a slurpee summit.
Let's Pretend
Nobody cares about the deficit, least of all Republicans in Congress, yet everyone pretends otherwise.
What Fresh Hell
Having that feeling I used to get during those periods before major congressional recesses, just hoping they'd hurry up and go the hell home before they did more damage.
Obviously there are some good things they could do, too, so in the spirit of bipartisanship I will cut off my hand.
Obviously there are some good things they could do, too, so in the spirit of bipartisanship I will cut off my hand.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Parental Backup
A post like this always gets some pushback with people giving their "I lived in DC on under 30 grand with student debt and no parental support" stories which is why I conceded that it's possible to do, but I think 20somethings at the time and in their memories often underestimate the degree of parental support they actually receive. At one end you have people whose parents just give them large and direct cash subsidies, at the other you have people with no living family members or anyone else to help them, but there's a whole range in the middle who get parental support in various ways. You know, a generous cash gift at Christmas. A bit of help with needed car repairs. Paying for plane flights home for the holidays. Parental support also comes in the form of just providing an insurance policy in that if you choose a lower real wage "important" job as a congressional staffer over a higher wage one elsewhere and your career is truncated prematurely when your boss loses re-election, someone is there to smooth the transition to your next endeavor. Moving is expensive too. Some people have a bit of a parental social safety net and some people don't.
Stepping On Own Message
The administration has long been very bad at consistently articulating their "need more spending now, need to cut deficit later" two track message, but as Scarecrow suggests it's not clear they're going to bother to try anymore.
V-Chip Wasn't So Bad
Even though nobody uses it, but the pointless gimmick era of the presidency is apparently here.
Class Self-Selection
Obviously congressional staffers are only a small part of the federal workforce, but the dirty little secret of Washington is that the country is run by poorly paid 25 year olds. Washington is an expensive city. Low level staff jobs really don't pay enough* unless you have some sort of parental support and backup, and of course such jobs are stepping stones to other careers in various corridors of power. In other words, only people of a certain class will tend to take such jobs and move into positions of real power.
*They might pay enough that you can afford the austere life in the several roommate flophouse, if you don't have tens of thousands of student loans to repay, but these just aren't high paying jobs given DC rents.
*They might pay enough that you can afford the austere life in the several roommate flophouse, if you don't have tens of thousands of student loans to repay, but these just aren't high paying jobs given DC rents.
But Will He Pay?
Anyone predict Christie will demonstrate his awesomeness by not paying his bill to the Feds?
Also, Bad Santa
With several thousand municipalities trying to deal with legitimate church/state separation issues and the reality of multiculturalism, it's inevitable that some will do something stupid when trying to deal with quasi-religious holidays like Christmas. But, if they don't, just make stuff up!
It's The Economy Stupid
I don't quite believe as much as some that elections are entirely won or lost on the state of the economy, but cutting federal pay in real terms is anti-stimulus at a moment when no other stimulus is likely to pass. Also, too, unionized public workers are part of your base, and such.
We'll Be The Bad Guys So They Don't Have To Be
So awesome.
Well as long as we preemptively do what they are planning to do then we won't have to negotiate...
WASHINGTON -- President Obama plans to announce a two-year pay freeze for civilian federal workers later Monday morning, according to an administration official, the latest White House move intended to demonstrate concern over sky-high deficit spending.
...
While a pay freeze will make only a small dent in the federal deficit, it represents a symbolic gesture toward public anger over unemployment, the anemic economic recovery and rising national debt. By announcing it on Monday, the president effectively will preempt Republicans who have been talking about making such a move once they take over the House and assume more seats in the Senate in January.
Well as long as we preemptively do what they are planning to do then we won't have to negotiate...
Modern Capitalism
Haven't bothered to look up the details, but in a BBC report on the Ireland bailout I was informed (rough quote) "there is a plan for private investors to be responsible for losses due to financial crises starting in 2013."
Sunday, November 28, 2010
So What Was It
So what was that policy? Saying there was general agreement within the economics team is not the same thing as saying that they had united around some policy proposal that the communications team could reasonably sell.
The Great Game
My 5 second takeaway from the latest wikileaks is that we spend an enormous amount of resources doing mostly pointless but still somewhat offensive stuff just so we can keep up the whole spy vs. spy nonsense, then cover it up.
The Jobs Are Too Damn Few
And the people whose job it is to think about how to solve such problems have basically punted.
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has 4 rich white people.
Face the Nation has Huffington, Woodward, Edmund Morris, and Ron Chernow.
Meet the Press has Durbin and Kyl.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has Huffington, Woodward, Edmund Morris, and Ron Chernow.
Meet the Press has Durbin and Kyl.
Document the atrocities!
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