Iran is almost 4 times the size of California, is very mountainous, and has 90 million people. Even in the best possible "and then the people rose up!" fantasy, violent civil war follows (that would be fine with Pipes, probably, but that's not what he conveys here).
I think my general of theory of "American suburban brain has eroded any concept of place and distance" contributes to this. There could be a major riot half a mile from my house in Philadelphia and I likely would have no idea. If the people rise up and take Lancaster (80 miles away) it would mean nothing to me.