Paging Dr. Krugman

DeLong says:

The real side counterpart of "financial adjustment" is that eight million American workers have to move from working in construction and consumer services to working in import-competing and export manufactures and services. If this takes place over five years, few will notice--and those who notice will be pleased as they will be pulled out of their current jobs into ones that are likely to be high paying in industries that are already rapidly expanding. If this takes place over one year, it becomes a big problem: you can fire eight million people in construction and consumer services in an instant, but creating and expanding the organizations to employ eight million more people in a particular slice of industries takes a long time.

I'm a wee bit rusty on my international econ, but DeLong hits on one of the things I've been mulling over lately. The basic idea is that the dollar drop is both necessary/inevitable in that it will put our long out of whack current account back into balance, and at least partially "good" in that it increases demand for exports. But there's a bit of a potential problem with that last bit.

Our manufacturing sector has been in relative decline for a long time. A big chunk of our economy now involves the production of non-tradeable (aside from tourism) goods. It isn't a matter of reopening some recently shuttered factories or boosting capacity. Sure, a declining dollar might sell a few more cars on the margin, but a big boost in exports would require not simply an uptick in employment in existing sectors, but the expansion of the economy into mostly non-existent ones. We economists all love our instantaneous adjustment models, but that isn't how the real world works.

Another thing to ponder is how all of this is affected by the vertical disintegration of the production chain which has really been the primary consequence of "modern globalization." Intermediate inputs are purchased from abroad, even when final production stages take place here. A falling dollar therefore equals not just higher prices on imported consumption goods, but increasing intermediate input costs for many industries.


This post is meandering, but there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the consequences of a falling dollar. If the structural changes in the economy are very slow, then one can imagine a downward spiral taking place.

Radical Cleric Falwell Hosting Crossfire

How low can we go...

Values

Pat Robertson says that gays and lesbians are "self-absorbed hedonists" for wanting to get married.

Lamar on a Milk Carton?

Just a random thought, but has Lamar Alexander made a public appearance since he won his senate seat in 2002?

I'm sure he has, but he's been oddly under the radar...

Occasional Reminders

This blog does not exist for the purpose of writing about whatever you think I should be writing about.

If I don't write about things that doesn't necessarily mean I don't think they're important - I may just have nothing to say, or it may just not interest me at that moment.

Surprisingly, the world manages to learn about, say, front page New York Times stories even if I don't link to them.

Other blogs exist even if I don't link to them. Linking to a blog is not necessarily an endorsement. Failing to link to a blog is not a non-endorsement. I assume this to be true of other bloggers as well.

The opinions expressed by guest bloggers are their opinions. I choose them for a bit of variety, not because I expect them to be just like me. Expectations that I clone myself or do this 365 days per year/18 hours per day are somewhat unreasonable.

Particularly strident emails criticizing me for these reasons tend to increase the scope of my spam filter.


...and, no, the above should not be construed to mean any of the following:

Criticism of what is written here by me or by a guest blogger is not allowed.

Reader tips and suggestions are discouraged.

Eschaton - love it or leave it!

etc...

Galloway

I never followed the Galloway story much, but it is true that a lot of people owe him an apology...

Morning Thread

Chat away.

Some Records Shouldn't Be Broken

Oy.

Big Gay Anderson

It's not exactly a huge secret that Anderson Cooper is gay. He was rather out in his pre-CNN incarnation, and then went more in. I've been told CNN requires no discussion of his personal life in interviews, though I can't verify that. One wonders if this policy (if true) extends to all their talent. An incorrect transcript of a recent show made it seem as if he'd outed himself, but apparently that didn't happen.

But, for all you anti-outers -- which of you complained when Daryn Kagan was widely "outed" as being Rusty Limbaugh's new honeybunny? As long as personal lives are fair game... they're fair game.

...just to add, in case there's any misunderstanding, in calling something "fair game" I didn't mean "fair game for attack" -I meant "fair game for discussion." I don't think calling someone "gay" is an attack. The Limbaugh reference was about how Kagan's personal life isn't off-limits. There's no reason to attack Cooper or anyone else simply for being gay. However, there's a problem with what appears to be CNN's desire to keep him in the closet.

He Explained That You Are Gay!

So, kid says his mother's gay. Explains what gay is to another kid. The teacher reprimands him and makes him fill out the following form:



Now the teacher is going to sue the mother for defamation.

Your Tax Dollars At Work

WaPo:

Many American youngsters participating in federally funded abstinence-only programs have been taught over the past three years that abortion can lead to sterility and suicide, that half the gay male teenagers in the United States have tested positive for the AIDS virus, and that touching a person's genitals "can result in pregnancy," a congressional staff analysis has found.

Those and other assertions are examples of the "false, misleading, or distorted information" in the programs' teaching materials, said the analysis, released yesterday, which reviewed the curricula of more than a dozen projects aimed at preventing teenage pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease.

...

Among the misconceptions cited by Waxman's investigators:

• A 43-day-old fetus is a "thinking person."

• HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, can be spread via sweat and tears.

• Condoms fail to prevent HIV transmission as often as 31 percent of the time in heterosexual intercourse.

One curriculum, called "Me, My World, My Future," teaches that women who have an abortion "are more prone to suicide" and that as many as 10 percent of them become sterile. This contradicts the 2001 edition of a standard obstetrics textbook that says fertility is not affected by elective abortion, the Waxman report said.

...

Some course materials cited in Waxman's report present as scientific fact notions about a man's need for "admiration" and "sexual fulfillment" compared with a woman's need for "financial support." One book in the "Choosing Best" series tells the story of a knight who married a village maiden instead of the princess because the princess offered so many tips on slaying the local dragon. "Moral of the story," notes the popular text: "Occasional suggestions and assistance may be alright, but too much of it will lessen a man's confidence or even turn him away from his princess."

Not an Advocacy Ad

Looking at the various follow-ups (Josh Marshall and my own colleagues at Media Matters) on CBS's refusal to run the UCC ad, I see they're mostly focused on CBS's advocacy ad policy.

But, this isn't an issue advocacy ad - it's an ad for a church/denomination. Does CBS regularly turn away other religious advertising?

Silly George Will

Will says:

In 2003, after many years of stoutly defending the filibuster, this columnist, his reason unhinged by the unconscionable filibuster against Miguel Estrada's confirmation to an appellate court, endorsed changing Senate rules to prevent such things.

Ah, yes, I remember that column well...

Back

Long flight. blah. Thanks to all who helped out while I was away...

two thumbs up!

Dubya the Movie


(via Defective Yeti)

Insurgents Control the Roads

How about a little cross-posting?

Earlier today I mentioned that the British Embassy in Iraq has ordered its staff not to travel on the main highway connecting Baghdad with the Baghdad International Airport (as well as banning embassy staff from taking any commercial flight out of Iraq).

Now we find in this account by a reporter who has driven the hair-raising airport highway that it is actually the safest route out of the country.

The main highways west to Jordan and Syria are even more dangerous - especially for foreigners - because of armed insurgents around Ramadi and Fallujah who have kidnapped and beheaded both Iraqi and foreign hostages.

The road south toward Karbala and Najaf passes through a string of insurgent-controlled towns and cities dubbed "the triangle of death" because of the large number of foreigners and Iraqi Shiite Muslims waylaid over the last year.

Another road to the southwest through Kut and on to Basra is considered safer - but only relatively. As the route approaches Amarah it passes through an area notorious for carjackings.

The highway north toward Mosul, known to the U.S. military as Highway One, passes through such insurgency-plagued cities as Samarra, Tikrit and Beiji. And the U.S. military describes the situation in Mosul as "tenuous."

That leaves the airport as the "safest" way out of Baghdad.

If you read the entire article you will learn that Iraq Survey Group leader Charles Duelfer nearly took a dirt nap on "RPG Alley" on November 8, surviving an attack that claimed the lives of two of his body guards.

You don't have to be friggin' Erwin Rommel to understand that the U. S. military situation in Iraq is, how do they say, "tenuous".

Drive it like you stole it!

Well, lunch is over, and the boss is still not back. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

So I'll blatantly purloin Holden's gaggle obssession (through his link at First Draft) to give us something new to talk about:

Q Can I ask you, the number of U.S. casualties spiked last month to, I think, 134. Should Americans brace for this level of violence through the Iraqi elections? Or is this because of the Fallujah offensive?

MR. McCLELLAN: There were tremendous sacrifices for the efforts to bring stability to the Fallujah area, both Iraqi forces, as well as American forces. We're all working together to bring about stability throughout Iraq, so that we can move forward on elections at the end of January. And the Iraqi election commission has set the date for January 30th, and we are all committed to helping the Iraqis move forward to hold these elections. But we've always said that as we move closer to elections and move forward on building a democratic Iraq, that the terrorists and the Saddam holdouts would become more desperate and seek to derail that transition.

What we are seeing is that they are being defeated, but we cannot forget the sacrifices of our men and women in the military who are partnering with the Iraqi people to prevail in this central front in the war on terrorism.

Q Sounds like you're bracing Americans to hold tight, it could be this bad for a couple more months.

MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I think the President has talked -- the President has regularly spoken about what we are working to achieve in Iraq, what we are working with the international community to achieve in Iraq. And coalition forces are there, partnering closely with the Iraqi forces to build a brighter future for the Iraqi people. And certainly that is critical -- a free and peaceful Iraq is critical to making the world a safer and better place.

Q Does the President --

MR. McCLELLAN: And we always remember the sacrifices of our men and women in the military are helping to make the world a better place.

Q Does the President think there should be a new election in Ukraine to end the suspicions of a rigged election?

MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I mean, there are a number of ideas that have been discussed. But what the President has said is that our position is that there should be a democratic outcome that reflects the will of the people in Ukraine. And you heard him say yesterday how he had spoken with President Kwasniewski, and President Kwasniewski and some other European leaders are traveling to Ukraine today to help move forward on a resolution that achieves that result in a peaceful way. So we look forward to hearing more about those discussions after they take place. We continue to urge the process to move forward in a peaceful way and achieve that democratic solution, and as it reflects the will of the people.

Anything else? Thanks.

Iraq and rigged elections. And you thought I was going to suggest an afternoon nap.....

Ham and Swiss on Rye

Lunch time chat thread. Atrios back soon.

On second thought, you'd better have the salmon.

The NYT reports that:


The Bush administration on Tuesday ruled out the possibility of removing federal dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers to protect 11 endangered species of salmon and steelhead, even as a last resort.

In an opinion issued by the fisheries division of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the government declared that the eight large dams on the lower stretch of the two rivers are an immutable part of the salmon's environment.
Endangered fish, the opinion said, can be protected by a variety of measures, including carrying fish around dams and building weirs - a new type of weir that works like a water slide - to ease young fishes' journey through dams as they swim downstream to the ocean. The total cost of the 10-year effort was projected at $6 billion. Assuming annual expenditures of $600 million, this represents a slight increase over existing spending for this purpose.

"It is clear that each of the dams already exists, and their existence is beyond the present discretion" of federal agencies to reverse, the opinion said.
The decision is a departure from the Clinton administration's approach to salmon protection. In 2000, it adopted a policy that allowed for dam removal, although only if all other measures had failed.

The Bush administration opinion, first released in draft form in September, provoked immediate outrage on the part of environmentalists and some tribal groups, who see it as another in a series of federal actions weakening protection for the salmon that are an integral part of the regional identity of the Northwest, and whose numbers have been sharply reduced over the decades by overfishing, dam construction, industrial pollution and suburban sprawl.

Earlier this year the fisheries division proposed including fish bred in hatcheries along with their wild cousins when calculating whether a salmon species is still endangered.

Environmentalists say the administration is retreating from the goal of recovering salmon to robust populations, settling for the status quo.
A spokesman for the fisheries division disagreed, saying the actions the agencies were taking or planned to take would be sufficient to protect the salmon. In a conference call Tuesday afternoon, officials of the fisheries service and the other agencies involved pointed out that they had drafted a letter addressed to the citizens of the Northwest with the assurance that "this approach does not represent a reduction in our commitment to salmon recovery."

****

bebe rebozo and Konopelli can have their salmon with Dole pineapple, if desired. Get it while it lasts.

Airport Road a No-Go Zone for Brits

I can't bear to see this blog go silent, so let's see if I still know how to use Blogger.

The British Embassy in Iraq has ordered its staff not to use the road linking Baghdad to the Baghdad International Airport and has banned all use of commercial airplanes flying out of Baghdad as well:

The warning is in sharp contrast to more optimistic statements from US military commanders after the capture of Fallujah in which they have spoken of "breaking the back of the insurgency".

The embassy says that the road between Baghdad and the international airport, perhaps the most important highway in the country, is now too dangerous to use. The advice says starkly: "With effect from 28 November, the British embassy ceased all movements on the Baghdad International airport road."

And if you are wondering what happened to all those high explosives looted from al Qaqaa, wonder no more.

A suicide bomb killed seven Iraqi soldiers and police and wounded nine in an attack in the town of Baghdadi, 120 miles north-west of the capital. Two US soldiers were killed and three wounded by a roadside bomb in north-west Baghdad. Hitherto, roadside bombs have consisted of several artillery shells detonated by a command wire or by remote control. But the US military say the insurgents have started using shaped charges which direct the blast towards a target.

That Liberal Media

This is pretty stunning. The networks won't run an ad by the UCC which says "like Jesus -- the United Church of Christ seeks to welcome all people, regardless of ability, age, race, economic circumstance or sexual orientation."

And their justification?

the Executive Branch has recently proposed a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman, this spot is unacceptable for broadcast on the [CBS and UPN] networks

So, because Bush doesn't want federal or state recognition of marriage, a church can't even advertise that they welcome anyone in their doors?

This is so fucked up.