Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Nobody Can Move

Economists have dumb models in their heads about largely frictionless economies. Things like "moving costs" don't factor in to their mental models of how things work (no economist on teevee pontificating has a model in a supercomputer, it's all vibes).

"People can just move where the jobs are" is one. A bad assumption in normal times, but certainly a bad assumption when mortgage rates are high. Home prices are also high because no one wants to sell when mortgage rates are so high because, among other reasons, they'd be trading their 3% mortgage in for a 7% one in the new location. Things are not yet going to hell, but...