Ann Althouse is pretending we haven't seen her stupid movies before.
Hey, here's a good book!
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Victory
The results of tonight's sporting competition confirm and validate all of my opinions about the electorate.
Happy Hour Thread
Apparently there's some sort of sporting competition on this evening. If you are thinking of placing a bet, find out who Peter Beinart thinks will win, and bet on the other team. The "nicest helmet" system usually works too.
I grew up at a very weird time. I don't think there's any way I can explain to the youths today that when this came out, we thought it was pretty cool.
And by we I mean ALL OF AMERICA.
I grew up at a very weird time. I don't think there's any way I can explain to the youths today that when this came out, we thought it was pretty cool.
And by we I mean ALL OF AMERICA.
Deep Thought
Reporters complaining about newsroom cutbacks and blaming bloggers should consider the resources used to cover the Tea Party and the former governor who will never again hold elected office.
People Like Us
This chart provides the explanation for why the unemployment crisis does not get the policy response it requires.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has the guys who destroyed the world, Greenspan and Hank Paulson, a couple of has beens, Ed Gillespie and Dee Dee Myers, and counterterrorism dude John Brennan.
Face the Nation has NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. I do not know why.
This Week has Timmeh.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. I do not know why.
This Week has Timmeh.
Document the atrocities!
Quite Telling
that Kimberly Fletcher, of the Abigail Adams Project strongly recommends that when trying to convince people to vote for the Tea Party candidates, they not discuss specific issues. She says, keep it general, like Scott Brown did. Discuss smaller government, lower taxes or putting Americans to work. I guess if they discuss specific issues like health care reform or admitting they want to do away with Social Security, they lose.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
CRE Option ARMs
I've heard of short term financing (5 yearsish) with balloon payments at the end being a problem, as people expecting to just refinance at the end haven't been able to, but I didn't realize people were taking out interest-only CRE mortgages that were like Option ARMs, with the payment recasting after a set period of time (the letter writer seems to be confused about he terms of the mortgage, so it isn't completely clear).
Securitization
I don't have tremendously deep thoughts on it, but it's clear that the incentives were not aligned appropriately. The mortgage issuers had no incentive to do proper underwriting, the ratings agencies had no incentive to give proper ratings, and securities brokers had incentives to shovel shit onto their clients, and their clients didn't seem to know or care. Now that the crisis has hit, the servicers have an incentive to drag out any foreclosure process to get fees, and owners of the shitpile don't want to write down any loan balances because then we'll know how broke they are.
Whether all that is fixable I have no idea.
Whether all that is fixable I have no idea.
Snow
Yes there is a lot of it. Somehow the foot that was forecast became two. No big deal, don't need to drive anywhere.
Underutilized Percussion Instruments
The metal beer-tray to the head is used to optimal effect here:
Friday, February 05, 2010
Could I Have The Money Now Please?
Republicans are so absurd.
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) has changed his mind and is now requesting his state's share of a popular education grant authorized as part of last year's federal stimulus. Sanford originally declined the money.
Jobs
It's a pretty picture, and I do hope we are on the right path, but only losing 20 thousand jobs is still... losing 20 thousand jobs.
Please Stop Driving
I get that sometimes people have travel needs and sometimes the car is the only way to go, but last time we had a big snowfall here there were just an absurd number of people trying to drive on unplowed streets with 23 inches of snow. Fortunately there wasn't much ice involved, but people were getting stuck everywhere.
Another tip: if a friendly stranger with a shovel offers to dig your car out when you're stuck, please pay them if you accept their offer. They aren't doing it just to be nice.
Another tip: if a friendly stranger with a shovel offers to dig your car out when you're stuck, please pay them if you accept their offer. They aren't doing it just to be nice.
Until A Cop Looks At Them Funny
Conservative hatred of a civilized system of justice is based on their "othering" of criminals. The instant they feel the jack-booted thugs of the state of treated them or someone like them unfairly the squealing is deafening.
Rahm
I don't have as much Rahm hate as some, but I'm not sure I've ever seen him be right about, well, anything.
Plan B
I don't think there's a problem with the "momentum strategy," I think there's a problem with the apparent lack of Plan B.
As with the economy, someone should've said, ok, what if unemployment is 10% 8 months from now? What's the strategy for dealing with that?
Of course maybe I'm wrong and Larry Summers is right and prosperity will come by Spring...or in a Friedman Unit...
Also, girly brains don't work very well.
...adding, they should've realized they needed plan 'B' on health care once it started to drag out and the momentum was lost.
As with the economy, someone should've said, ok, what if unemployment is 10% 8 months from now? What's the strategy for dealing with that?
Of course maybe I'm wrong and Larry Summers is right and prosperity will come by Spring...or in a Friedman Unit...
Also, girly brains don't work very well.
...adding, they should've realized they needed plan 'B' on health care once it started to drag out and the momentum was lost.
Crap
-20K new jobs, but unemployment falls to 9.7%.
I'm not wishing for bad reality, but we could use a little jolt. I could be wrong and everything might really be turning around, or the data (the unemployment rate measurement) could just suck...
I'll have more on this once I look into the numbers a bit, or read other people who are looking into the numbers...
I'm not wishing for bad reality, but we could use a little jolt. I could be wrong and everything might really be turning around, or the data (the unemployment rate measurement) could just suck...
I'll have more on this once I look into the numbers a bit, or read other people who are looking into the numbers...
watertiger
Oh my!
And someone needs to point out to the sanctimonious D.C. remoras like John Boehner, once he’s done fellating the Wall Street fat cat donors for campaign cash, that gluttony is a sin.
I wonder what will happen to the Stock Market today? I'm guessing another down day.
And someone needs to point out to the sanctimonious D.C. remoras like John Boehner, once he’s done fellating the Wall Street fat cat donors for campaign cash, that gluttony is a sin.
I wonder what will happen to the Stock Market today? I'm guessing another down day.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Happy Hour Thread
Go to your local and be happy!
My pal Barry from Washington texted me and told me he was gonna be on the intertubeteeve at 545.
My pal Barry from Washington texted me and told me he was gonna be on the intertubeteeve at 545.
Come Back, Johnny Mac
I appreciate that they're noticing, but how many what the fuck happened to John McCain articles will be written before it sinks in that he's a bitter asshole.
The Way We Live Now
Booming business.
GOODLETTSVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- Discount retailer Dollar General says it will add 5,000 jobs as it opens 600 new stores over the next 12 months.
Not Over
This is from a few weeks ago, but the graph should scare you. Basically, as I've been shouting for some time now, there's still a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up as Option ARMs recast. Interest rates are still low, so the issue isn't resetting rates, the issue is when people can no longer make interest-only or neg-am payments on their mortgages, making them unaffordable.
Austerity
It's always the solution.
ATHENS, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Greek tax officials walked off the job on Thursday, kicking off a series of strikes against an austerity plan meant to pull the country out of a debt crisis that has sent shockwaves across the euro zone.
The plan, which won the European Commission's qualified backing on Wednesday, includes a wage freeze across the public sector and cuts in special allowances that make up a big chunk of civil servants' overall income.
Message: Focused On Jobs
As Meyerson suggests, it's depressing that the Dems can confront this reality, and instead of doing what's necessary to preserve and create jobs they're going to... do not much at all.
There are things they can do.
There are things they can do.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Surprise, it still isn't getting better.
Monthly jobs report comes out tomorrow. I'm hoping for a bad number (not bad reality, bad measurement), because it's probably the last chance for something to spur the powers that be into doing something...
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was above market expectations for 460,000.
Monthly jobs report comes out tomorrow. I'm hoping for a bad number (not bad reality, bad measurement), because it's probably the last chance for something to spur the powers that be into doing something...
Research
So the US is gonna study torture techniques to evaluate their effectiveness.
AFP
Update. Now I am a bad blogger. The article also says
Thanks to RMJ in comments for pulling this out. Personally, I find this untrustworthy. The FBI has already studied this. Effective interrogation techniques have been in place for some time.
An elite US interrogation unit will conduct "scientific research" to find better ways of questioning top suspected terrorists, US intelligence director Dennis Blair said Wednesday.
AFP
Update. Now I am a bad blogger. The article also says
Blair said the HIG charter required it to abide by the US Army Field Manual, which forbids abusive interrogation techniques.
Thanks to RMJ in comments for pulling this out. Personally, I find this untrustworthy. The FBI has already studied this. Effective interrogation techniques have been in place for some time.
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Bidness
I don't think this is really the right interpretation. A lot of businesses really are over regulated, and a lot of people have owned, worked for, or known someone who involved with one of these businesses.
Maybe over regulated is the wrong phrase as I'm not really passing judgment on the soundness of the regulations. It's just that people who run truly small businesses can deal with a lot of headaches with their local municipalities, and because they're genuinely small businesses they don't really have the staff to deal with it.
One of the poll questions explicitly mentions the federal government, but I don't think people distinguish that much.
Maybe over regulated is the wrong phrase as I'm not really passing judgment on the soundness of the regulations. It's just that people who run truly small businesses can deal with a lot of headaches with their local municipalities, and because they're genuinely small businesses they don't really have the staff to deal with it.
One of the poll questions explicitly mentions the federal government, but I don't think people distinguish that much.
We will fuck him. Do you hear me? We will fuck him. We will ruin him. Like no one has ever fucked him!
I gather Rove was on O'Reilly's fainting couch, upset at all the profanity over at the great orange satan's place.
This Post Will Probably Bore You
My local transit authority is making a fairly major change to its regional rail system. Without boring you with all the history, roughly speaking, a few decades ago they connected up the two "sides" of the system. Part of the motivation was so that they could create more suburb-to-suburb routes, with each line going inbound into the city from one outer suburb, and then back out to another outer suburb. Whatever the merits of this idea, in recent years changing train routing needs have meant that a lot of trains aren't actually one seat rides from one outer suburb to another, and the trains change their route designations when they hit the city.
So they're going back to a pure hub and spoke system now. I'm not entirely sure why train routing needs required a lot of trains to change rout designations, but presumably this does provide for some additional flexibility in changing train frequencies. For example, it might make it easier to run relatively more outbound trains at night, or perhaps have more trains which only travel a truncated route, providing greater frequencies over shorter segments.
All very exciting!!
So they're going back to a pure hub and spoke system now. I'm not entirely sure why train routing needs required a lot of trains to change rout designations, but presumably this does provide for some additional flexibility in changing train frequencies. For example, it might make it easier to run relatively more outbound trains at night, or perhaps have more trains which only travel a truncated route, providing greater frequencies over shorter segments.
All very exciting!!
Groceries
This is good policy from the Obama administration. While I'm dubious about many private business subsidies from local governments, I've written many times that I definitely support making efforts to attract food markets to areas that don't have them. They really make the difference between a viable and nonviable neighborhoods, and can be the catalyst to help struggling neighborhoods come back to life.
Those Menacing Bloggers
I guess what happened is someone finally clued Evan Bayh in on the fact that there are people on the internets who say mean things about him, and that, after Joe Lieberman, he's our favorite chew toy these days. Must be getting under his skin if he's using high profile time to complain about liberal blogs to the president.
Senators is weird.
Senators is weird.
Threaded
Let's see if this works..
...thanks to reader r for the tech support. Hopefully this will keep working...
...thanks to reader r for the tech support. Hopefully this will keep working...
Comments
They seem to be busted or barely working... hopefully the geniuses at js-kit fix them.
...don't have time in a moment, but if they don't return within a couple of hours I'll hunt for an alternative...
...don't have time in a moment, but if they don't return within a couple of hours I'll hunt for an alternative...
"The American Dream Slips Away"
That's the CNN chyron regarding Census report saying that the home ownership rate is back down to 2000 levels. That's really stupid. First, 2000 was...all of 9 years ago. Second, one thing we should learn from the housing bubble is that some people really shouldn't own homes. For plenty of people it doesn't make financial sense, relative to renting, and for some people the added responsibility is too much of a burden.
Nothing against people owning homes, but we shouldn't think that a perpetually increasing home ownership rate is a good thing.
Nothing against people owning homes, but we shouldn't think that a perpetually increasing home ownership rate is a good thing.
I Guess It's Up To Left Wing Bloggers
To point out that deficit peacock Evan Bayh voted for Bush's tax cuts and his exciting wars, and his signature concern of late is reducing the tax burden of the children of billionaires.
...Actually, I was wrong. It seems Bayh voted against the Bush tax cuts,even though he doesn't want them to expire now. Not even sure about that last bit, other than the estate tax. I am a bad blogger today.
...Actually, I was wrong. It seems Bayh voted against the Bush tax cuts,
Travel Time Savings
It's good that the DOT has moved away from its sole focus on travel time savings in evaluating transit projects. In practice this basically meant that no predominantly intra-urban project could be funded, because subways are too expensive. That is, anything which wasn't mostly grade separated with significant travel through not very dense areas couldn't get funding.
Can't Pay Won't Pay
This isn't surprising, though I don't have a good handle on what the fallout might be.
Doubt they'll get the AIG treatment.
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Troubled U.S. bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N) has hired Blackstone Group (BX.N) to help it restructure, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Ambac has said in public filings that it is working on a strategy to address liquidity concerns. The company, like its larger rival MBIA Inc (MBI.N), has struggled to write new business since losing its top-notch AAA credit rating in 2008.
Doubt they'll get the AIG treatment.
-22K
Official number comes out Friday, monthly estimate of that number sez it will be -22K.
Reaction to the number will stupidly depend on whether it's positive or negative, but anything under +100K (conservatively) means the labor market is getting worse...
Reaction to the number will stupidly depend on whether it's positive or negative, but anything under +100K (conservatively) means the labor market is getting worse...
WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE
Obviously we need to start the bombings immediately.
We must stop them before their turtles in space program becomes too advanced!
PARIS — In what seemed designed as a display of technological advance, Iran said on Wednesday that it had fired a rocket into space carrying living organisms — a rat, two turtles and worms, according to the official broadcaster Press TV.
We must stop them before their turtles in space program becomes too advanced!
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Run Away
If it makes legal and financial sense, walk away from your home. That's what bidness would do.
Deep Thought
Soon Emperor Obama will march you all into the urban gulag. Then I guess I'll have to move.
Hope The Devil Has A Down Coat
Because Lord Saletan, for once, is making sense on abortion.
I did not click through to read the whole thing as I'm sure there will be something in there to annoy me.
I did not click through to read the whole thing as I'm sure there will be something in there to annoy me.
Looking Out For You
There is no place in the country where $250,000 household income isn't a good chunk of change. Even if you live in Manhattan, it still means you can afford a pretty damn decent lifestyle even if it doesn't make you filthy rich. You can always move to Brooklyn where it's a bit cheaper, or Philly, which is the 16th borough or something.
More importantly than that, the tax increases on the $250,00+ set are marginal tax increases which only apply to...money in excess of $250,000. People making, say, $300,000 aren't going to see their tax bill increase by very much.
More importantly than that, the tax increases on the $250,00+ set are marginal tax increases which only apply to...money in excess of $250,000. People making, say, $300,000 aren't going to see their tax bill increase by very much.
The Village Priorities
The Washington Post does one service by letting us know what occupies their weird minds.
I'll Say It Over And Over And Some People Will Never Hear
I don't object to the fact that lots of people like to live in car-centric neighborhoods in single family detached homes with big yards. I also don't object to the fact that this preference leads to people supporting public policies which cause the building of some kinds of public infrastructure to support this desired way of living. What I object to is the fact that alternative kinds of development are basically illegal in most places. I've written over and over again that it would be illegal to build my block today, in fact it would be illegal to build almost all of the residential portions of the broader center city Philadelphia area. It's even illegal to build my neighborhood in my neighorhood! The primary issue is the parking requirement, with any project with 5 or more units requiring private off street parking, and in practice even smaller projects are forced to add parking due to demands of neighborhood groups. Market forces operate within a world with regulations, infrastructure, and financing subsidies. They aren't independent of them.
Impact
Just adding to the post below, at some point it became clear that the consensus of official Washington, including many Democrats, the scribblers at Kaplan Test Prep Daily, the Great Minds at Very Serious Think Tanks, and guests at Sally Quinn's table dancing parties, is that torture is awesome, the rule of law only applies to Al Gore, Bill Clinton's penis, and all people who don't have important DC jobs, and all it takes to nullify the constitution is to call someone a terraist. I don't know how to change this, and electing the Hopey Changey guy didn't help much. I think they're playing Calvinbill a bit more fairly, but they're still playing it.
Also
Cash for clunkers, home buyer's tax credit, and massive spending on roads and highways.
None of these things benefited suburbs exclusively, of course, but on balance, on a per capita basis...
None of these things benefited suburbs exclusively, of course, but on balance, on a per capita basis...
All Of this Was Predictable
A mortgage broker told me a couple of years ago that as soon as the subprime problems hit, all the action just moved to the FHA...
Despite all evidence to the contrary, our elites have moved beyond the foreclosure crisis. It isn't over, nor are its consequences.
The share of borrowers who are falling seriously behind on loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration jumped by more than a third in the past year, foreshadowing a crush of foreclosures that could further buffet an agency vital to the housing market's recovery.
About 9.1 percent of FHA borrowers had missed at least three payments as of December, up from 6.5 percent a year ago, the agency's figures show.
Despite all evidence to the contrary, our elites have moved beyond the foreclosure crisis. It isn't over, nor are its consequences.
The Golden Girls Turned an Entire Generation of Young Men Gay
I've been assured that this is not satire
But come on. The Golden Girls? WTF?
(Link goes to ChristWire)
Update: It's Satire.
But come on. The Golden Girls? WTF?
(Link goes to ChristWire)
Update: It's Satire.
Monday, February 01, 2010
Bad News
My biggest hope is that they got burned with their overly optimistic projections from last year and are now making overly pessimistic ones so they can later claim "victory."
HOPE
HOPE
Union Deal Hurt Too
It wasn't just Nelson's little goody, it was also the deal for unions on excise tax.
The one thing Dems need to understand is that while people want their goodies, they're very very quick to get angry if they think that perceived Dem constituencies (unions, people with dark complexions) are getting more goodies than they are. "Nebraska" doesn't fit cleanly into this model, but "Democratic senator" does.
More generally, it's the problem with small-bore incremental liberalism, as opposed to programs that are now universal like Social Security and Medicare. Without universality, it's always easy to make it seem like someone else (someone less deserving, of course) is getting the goodies making good programs unpopular.
The one thing Dems need to understand is that while people want their goodies, they're very very quick to get angry if they think that perceived Dem constituencies (unions, people with dark complexions) are getting more goodies than they are. "Nebraska" doesn't fit cleanly into this model, but "Democratic senator" does.
More generally, it's the problem with small-bore incremental liberalism, as opposed to programs that are now universal like Social Security and Medicare. Without universality, it's always easy to make it seem like someone else (someone less deserving, of course) is getting the goodies making good programs unpopular.
That's Really Horrible
Chuck Toddler twitters:
If that's what they believe, Jeebus. When they passed the stimulus a year ago they projected that without the stimulus unemployment would drop below 6% by the end of 2012.
This is bad.
Obama admin lays down unemployment rate markers: by end '10, will be below 10%, by end of '11, below 9% and by end of '12, just below 8%
If that's what they believe, Jeebus. When they passed the stimulus a year ago they projected that without the stimulus unemployment would drop below 6% by the end of 2012.
This is bad.
Ladies And Gentleman, This Is A Bank
Hopefully the next version includes lessons on shoe tying for the masters of the universe.
Paradise Found
In Colorado Springs.
I thought streets paid for themselves?
More than a third of the streetlights in Colorado Springs will go dark Monday. The police helicopters are for sale on the Internet. The city is dumping firefighting jobs, a vice team, burglary investigators, beat cops — dozens of police and fire positions will go unfilled.
The parks department removed trash cans last week, replacing them with signs urging users to pack out their own litter.
Neighbors are encouraged to bring their own lawn mowers to local green spaces, because parks workers will mow them only once every two weeks. If that.
Water cutbacks mean most parks will be dead, brown turf by July; the flower and fertilizer budget is zero.
City recreation centers, indoor and outdoor pools, and a handful of museums will close for good March 31 unless they find private funding to stay open. Buses no longer run on evenings and weekends. The city won't pay for any street paving, relying instead on a regional authority that can meet only about 10 percent of the need.
I thought streets paid for themselves?
Doing It Wrong
My recent travels were in a Third Worldish country, and my big conclusion about the lack of development in the parts that did lack it, information the World Bank should pay me millions to provide, was that there was an appalling lack of rather easily produced public infrastructure. One can't just wave a magic wand and make it appear, but it should be a priority in ways that it didn't seem to be.
In this country with 10% unemployment and some places with massive public infrastructure needs, the solution is also obvious.
In this country with 10% unemployment and some places with massive public infrastructure needs, the solution is also obvious.
The War On Suburbia
I, for one, intend to enlist to join in this holy crusade by Emperor Obama.
This is completely idiotic for mostly obvious reasons, including the hundreds of billions devoted to propping up single family home prices. It isn't necessarily a wise policy, but it's hardly a war on the suburbs.
This is completely idiotic for mostly obvious reasons, including the hundreds of billions devoted to propping up single family home prices. It isn't necessarily a wise policy, but it's hardly a war on the suburbs.
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD — A female suicide bomber walking among Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad detonated an explosives belt Monday, killing at least 41 people and wounding more than 100, officials said.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)