Sunday, March 07, 2010
Sunday Evening Thread
My bold predictions for the week: Jonah Goldberg will say something stupid, there will be many debates on cable news between the right and the center right, and Fred Hiatt will find another writer to endorse torture and perpetual war. This person will, of course, be a liberal.
CRE Hell
This article is about Cleveland, but other cities are experiencing similar. I'm not actually sure how the CRE issue will play out, but it's something to watch.
Was common to hand out interest only 5 year loans with balloon payments at end, which borrowers were fine with because they could always refinance. Until they can't.
This corridor is the local face of a national problem -- one that is troubling in Cleveland but more severe in overbuilt markets like Las Vegas and Miami and battered cities such as Detroit. Across the country, a wave of office buildings, shopping centers, hotels, apartment properties and industrial facilities could be returned to lenders or foreclosed upon during the next few years.
Some of these buildings are obsolete. Others are losing tenants as companies remake themselves to emerge from the recession. Some properties are carrying heavy debt loads from more freewheeling days. Others never succumbed to excess, but their owners can't refinance loans or find new money in a more conservative lending environment.
Was common to hand out interest only 5 year loans with balloon payments at end, which borrowers were fine with because they could always refinance. Until they can't.
My Neighborhood
Yay, a comments section filled with haters in an article about my neighborhood.
I've been glad to see that real estate agents and businesses have been using the name again, instead of trying to pretend it's just part of neighboring Bella Vista.
I've been glad to see that real estate agents and businesses have been using the name again, instead of trying to pretend it's just part of neighboring Bella Vista.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation has Senate Majority Leader Evan Bayh and Attorney General Lindsey Graham.
Meet the Press has Speaker of the House Tom DeLay, Brian Baird, and Chris Van Hollen
This Week has Sebelius and Mitch McConnell
Document the atrocities!
Meet the Press has Speaker of the House Tom DeLay, Brian Baird, and Chris Van Hollen
This Week has Sebelius and Mitch McConnell
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, March 06, 2010
They're All Dreamy
Is there a single male Republican politician who isn't talked about by the press as a likely and strong candidate in 2012?
Your Liberal Media
CNN's education guy is on my teevee telling me that students should be mad at teachers and professors for their giant salaries, not administrators and the governator.
Friday, March 05, 2010
Busy Day Already
Bank of Illinois, Normal, IL and Waterfield Bank, Germantown, MD.
Neither are too big, but the FDIC really ate the second one... no buyer.
Neither are too big, but the FDIC really ate the second one... no buyer.
Catastrophic Climate Change
The interesting question to me has always been whether climate change will be relatively slow and steady, forcing some major change to how and where we, colllectively, live, or whether one of these catastrophic feedback scenarios (there are a few) happen and things get pretty bad pretty fast.
Deep Thought
Why didn't he just call it John King, Captain America, or maybe, John King, America, FUCK YEAH.
Hoovers
New Jersey Transit is raising fares and cutting staff and service.
I'm sure there are very low ridership routes for which service cuts wouldn't be that big a deal, except of course to the few people who use them, but this is sounding more like an across the board share the pain cut. If so, not so smart.
I'm sure there are very low ridership routes for which service cuts wouldn't be that big a deal, except of course to the few people who use them, but this is sounding more like an across the board share the pain cut. If so, not so smart.
Such As?
Christina Romer:
I pay attention to this stuff, and I don't know what "additional responsible measures" the White House actually wants Congress to pass. The $15 billion "jobs" bill is pretty much a joke, so... what else?
Of course, an unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is unacceptably high and we need to achieve robust employment growth in order to recover from the terrible job losses that began over two years ago. That is why it is essential that Congress pass additional responsible measures to promote job creation.
I pay attention to this stuff, and I don't know what "additional responsible measures" the White House actually wants Congress to pass. The $15 billion "jobs" bill is pretty much a joke, so... what else?
Are There Al Qaeda Loving Traitors In The Justice Department?
It really was quite the display on CNN yesterday, with suspected pedophile Wolf Blitzer going full McCarthy on some Justice Department lawyers. After all these years, the same cast of right wing lunatics can type something up in the morning and have it on CNN in the afternoon.
People Gotta Go (cont'd.)
Lower Manhattan has lots of restaurants with facilities, but only for customers. Fair enough if you're there for the eats. Finally had to resort to getting coffee at a MacDonald's as two coffee shops said they didn't have a loo for customers. Uhm, people gotta go.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
People Gotta Go
I have no idea if this is representative sample of Arizona opinion, but I love how people are pissed off at the closing of highway rest stops while also seeing the closings as a sinister plot to raise their taxes.
People gotta go, and stuff costs money.
People gotta go, and stuff costs money.
Urban Crime
I don't think popular perception has caught up with the fact that urban crime in many many cities has gone way down. And if you limit "crime" to "crimes that are likely to happen to someone like me," where someone like me is someone who doesn't live in one of the worst neighborhoods and isn't personally involved in dubious endeavors, it's fallen even further.. My urban hellhole still has a lot of murders, though down from the peak, but I personally don't worry about being murdered.
I also feel quite a bit safer than I used to when I first moved here, despite moving to a "worse" neighborhood, and safer in many more parts of the city. I don't know how much of that is just a change in my perception, and how much of that is due to an apparent drop in muggings, etc..., but I really just don't worry at all.
I also feel quite a bit safer than I used to when I first moved here, despite moving to a "worse" neighborhood, and safer in many more parts of the city. I don't know how much of that is just a change in my perception, and how much of that is due to an apparent drop in muggings, etc..., but I really just don't worry at all.
Before The Car Was King
It wasn't just small and medium sized cities that had streetcars, but small towns also. Montgomery County, PA trolley map. Lines closed down at various times, except the black one which is still running, and they seem to have peaked in the 1910s.
Random Thought
I'm really not sure how we got from we don't torture, to that torture stuff we do isn't torture, to anyone who opposes torture hates America. Apparently that's where we are.
Stuck
Labor mobility has long been one of the things which was supposed to ease the impact of recessions, as people could move to areas where there were jobs. The housing crisis, however, has strongly reduced mobility.
A Very Obvious Thing I Still Need To Say
Assuming allegations are basically true, I really don't get why Paterson hasn't resigned. Abuse of power in the way alleged is bad generally, and abuse of power for the purpose of covering up domestic violence allegations is super extra bad.
Death By Stupak
If you are inclined to do so, give Bart Stupak's office a call and politely ask them why he's doing his best to make sure more poor women die from stupak, the sepsis women can experience when they have unsafe abortions.
202-225-4735
202-225-4735
Cultural Disconnect
I stopped teaching about the time I was losing touch with what I could reasonably expect my students to know and not know with respect to relatively recent history and popular culture. I have a sense that things are actually a bit different now than when I was an undergrad, in that there is a somewhat sharper break from the past for students of that age. I'm not talking about them being less educated, I'm talking about the basic culture that they become aware of through fairly automatic processes.
But, yes, it is a challenege for teachers.
But, yes, it is a challenege for teachers.
Politicians Lie
What's interesting is that sometimes the press cares and sometimes they don't. I don't know if Bill Halter is awesome, and I don't know if he has more chance of keeping the seat than Lincoln does, but punishing bad behavior is a good thing.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Apparently "only" 469K new lucky duckies is good news.
Monthly jobs report comes out tomorrow. I expect we'll spend a lot of time talking about the weather.
New claims for jobless benefits fell last week in a sign that layoffs may be easing as the economy slowly recovers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000. That nearly matches Wall Street analysts' estimates of 470,000.
Monthly jobs report comes out tomorrow. I expect we'll spend a lot of time talking about the weather.
Requiescat in pace
Swift has sailed into his rest;
Savage indignation there
Cannot lacerate his breast.
Imitate him if you dare,
World-besotted traveller.
He served human liberty.
Here. And what DA said.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Headlines I Don't Remember From The Bush Years
Gotta find ways to be a bit hopey now and then.
FDA enforcing truth-in-advertising claims with 17 food companies
Hooray For The Bus
Buses are no match for SUPERTRAINS, but they can get the job done. I rode one home this evening. Not all bus lines are created equal, of course, and I've long been a bit puzzled by the fact that real estate agents don't point out in ads locally if your house is next to a good bus lines (high frequency). I get that not everyone gets excited by the availability of excellent mass transit options, but some people do and they're the kind of people who move to urban hellholes.
On My Teevee
Mary Matalin just told me that Kay Bailey Hutchison's primary loss is really bad news for Democrats.
The Last Mile
It is very difficult to bring mass transit to suburban sprawl, because the distances from the stations to...everywhere... is often quite far in part due to the massive parking lots. Tysons Corner is planning for infill, but that will take some time. Reasonably people will walk about a half mile or so and not much more, especially if parking is free and plentiful.
Joke
If we give you the powers you already have will you promise to use them this time?
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- For consumer advocates, housing a new agency to protect Americans from financial-product abuse within the Federal Reserve would be a defeat after lobbying for an independent body. For banks, it would represent a victory.
Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, called a Senate plan to house the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency at the Fed “a joke.” Shielding consumers from harmful financial products is “the most conspicuous failure by the Fed,” Frank said in an interview yesterday.
The World Is Flat
I guess we've come full circle with America's Greatest Free Trader coming out fully for local subsidies and industrial policy.
According
to one source (unconfirmed), Bunning needed to pee and so ended his filibuster that wasn't really a filibuster, but a hold.
Fine by me. I'd like to see more asshattery exposed. Keep it up guys!
Fine by me. I'd like to see more asshattery exposed. Keep it up guys!
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
I'm So Old
I can remember when making fundraising calls from the wrong telephone and talking to reporters were grave threats to the Republic.
WASHINGTON — An official at the United States Embassy in Iraq has told federal prosecutors that he believes that State Department officials sought to block any serious investigation of the 2007 shooting episode in which Blackwater Worldwide security guards were accused of murdering 17 Iraqi civilians, according to court testimony made public on Tuesday.
David Farrington, a State Department security agent in the American Embassy at the time of the shooting in Baghdad’s Nisour Square, told prosecutors that some of his colleagues were handling evidence in a way they hoped would help the Blackwater guards avoid punishment for a crime that drew headlines and raised tensions between American and Iraqi officials.
Census Time
In 2000 I was living in Irvine, CA, I was given the extended survey to fill out, and probably screwed up the statistics by reporting that I walked to work.
Be kind to your Census worker!
Be kind to your Census worker!
A Day Late and a Dollar Short
From NYT:
It only took wall to wall coverage of the Republicans looking like total assholes for them to realize that filibustering assistance for the unemployed was a bad idea. Would have been nice if say, they thought that screwing the unemployed was a bad idea in the first place. I know, I know, asking way too much.
While trying to blame Democrats for mishandling the entire matter, other Republicans also distanced themselves from Mr. Bunning, whom Democrats were holding up as the embodiment of what they say has been a maddening pattern of Republican obstruction in the Senate.
“This is one senator,” said Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a chief political strategist for Senate Republicans. “This does not represent the position of the caucus.”
Other party officials said that while the Bunning fight was not helpful, it probably would not do serious damage as long as it ended rapidly.
It only took wall to wall coverage of the Republicans looking like total assholes for them to realize that filibustering assistance for the unemployed was a bad idea. Would have been nice if say, they thought that screwing the unemployed was a bad idea in the first place. I know, I know, asking way too much.
Flat
I don't mind a garbage fee if it's a per bag fee, but implementing a flat household fee for garbage collection is dumb.
One problem with the former is that people just litter or throw their bags in public trash cans (philly doesn't have too many), but the latter requires administration and enforcement bureaucracy. What will they do if people don't pay the bills?
I've lived places where they had a buck or two per special bag, like bright orange ones sold at places that sell such things. Worked fine.
One problem with the former is that people just litter or throw their bags in public trash cans (philly doesn't have too many), but the latter requires administration and enforcement bureaucracy. What will they do if people don't pay the bills?
I've lived places where they had a buck or two per special bag, like bright orange ones sold at places that sell such things. Worked fine.
Bad Dodd
A "financial reform bill" which gives the Fed the powers it already has and chooses not to use it not exactly change we can believe in.
The War On Curb Cuts
I remain mystified that so many places allow (either explicitly or due to lax enforcement) curb cuts which turn a public parking spot into a private one. I get that people who need cars - and Queens isn't exactly Manhattan - want places to park, but a spot which is used for a commuter vehicle at night can be used by someone going to shop by day if it's a public one.
When I write about curb cuts sometimes people email saying that I should be fine with curb cuts which make sidewalks more accessible for handicapped individuals. For the record, I am! I'm talking about curb cuts which turn the sidewalk into a mini driveway to someone's yard or garage.
When I write about curb cuts sometimes people email saying that I should be fine with curb cuts which make sidewalks more accessible for handicapped individuals. For the record, I am! I'm talking about curb cuts which turn the sidewalk into a mini driveway to someone's yard or garage.
Stimulating
I'm in the "pay people to dig and fill holes" camp with respect to a stimulus if that's the best we can do, but Ed Glaeser is right that skewing the spending to building highways in low density areas is certainly not the best way to spend money, especially, but only, because those areas tend to be the places that have been least hit with unemployment problems.
True story: Ed Glaeser once helped me carry my bags.
True story: Ed Glaeser once helped me carry my bags.
The Urban Revolution
I long ago stopped bothering to read anything by Kotkin, as it just boils down to "suburbs are the bestest ever and anyone who says otherwise is an urban elitist who is going to force you to live in a shoebox in Manhattan."
He does give voice to the weird defensiveness of suburbanites against urban hellhole elitists like me despite the fact that our vision of urban hellhole revolution is actually relatively mild and would do little to impact the basic suburban geography in most places. More spending on mass transit, the relaxation of zoning and land use barriers in some places which make dense and mixed use development illegal, a recognition that more parking everywhere is not always the solution, some other minor tweaks to allowable development. None of this would make it more difficult for people to live in a single family home with a yard, it would just create more walkable communities mostly in the model of older suburban communities which were built when the automobile was ascendant but not yet completely dominant. No one's going to take away your cars or make you live in an urban hellhole, we just want to reduce automobile dependence and make it possible to create some more walkable communities which plenty of people say they want but can't afford.
He does give voice to the weird defensiveness of suburbanites against urban hellhole elitists like me despite the fact that our vision of urban hellhole revolution is actually relatively mild and would do little to impact the basic suburban geography in most places. More spending on mass transit, the relaxation of zoning and land use barriers in some places which make dense and mixed use development illegal, a recognition that more parking everywhere is not always the solution, some other minor tweaks to allowable development. None of this would make it more difficult for people to live in a single family home with a yard, it would just create more walkable communities mostly in the model of older suburban communities which were built when the automobile was ascendant but not yet completely dominant. No one's going to take away your cars or make you live in an urban hellhole, we just want to reduce automobile dependence and make it possible to create some more walkable communities which plenty of people say they want but can't afford.
Wankery
Greg directs his ire at Orrin Hatch, but the real problem is Fred Hiatt, whose vision of the modern newspaper editorial page, and the modern editorial page editor, involves letting the "right" people say anything they want even if it contradicts the paper's own reporting.
I think we're long past the time when most print newspapers could've been saved by simply providing a better product, but I also think there was a window to save, if not the print versions, the institutions which published them. Obviously the WaPo can survive as long as Kaplan Test Prep makes enough to keep them afloat, but I do wish more journalists bemoaning the losses in their industry would recognize that at least to some degree ceasing to be relevant and authoritative publications is a part of the problem. Why should people read them when they have to spend a lot of time figuring out when they're being bullshitted?
I think we're long past the time when most print newspapers could've been saved by simply providing a better product, but I also think there was a window to save, if not the print versions, the institutions which published them. Obviously the WaPo can survive as long as Kaplan Test Prep makes enough to keep them afloat, but I do wish more journalists bemoaning the losses in their industry would recognize that at least to some degree ceasing to be relevant and authoritative publications is a part of the problem. Why should people read them when they have to spend a lot of time figuring out when they're being bullshitted?
The Bestest And The Smartest
The onslaught of Rahm Is Teh Awesomest stories is truly bizarre. Apparently he's always right about everything, though success seems to measured by "doing stuff" rather than achieving actual policy goals. The compromised stimulus? Better than nothing, but...unemployment is still way over what the administration forecast.
Almost Like Jesus
One thing we had to deal with in the 90s, but less in the 00s, was the perpetual presence of Pastor Ralph Reed on our teevees. He was Jesus's stand in as far as the media was concerned, telling us what was moral (Republicans) and sinful (Democrats).
Despite all that Ambramoff unpleasantness, I'm sure they'll go back to treating him like Jesus again if he runs for Congress.
Despite all that Ambramoff unpleasantness, I'm sure they'll go back to treating him like Jesus again if he runs for Congress.
Lousy Waterfront
Only in Philly would the waterfront be considered to be a lousy location, and it is.
Wynn's plan calls for a low-budget casino more fitting to its lousy waterfront location in South Philadelphia, not far from a Wal-Mart.
Gone are the original plans for a hotel that could at least attract gamblers from out of town to help bolster the city's tourist trade. Instead, the latest Foxwoods incarnation will just be acres of slot machines and scores of table games aimed at the locals living paycheck to paycheck or on fixed incomes.
Monday, March 01, 2010
For The Record
If allegations are true, Paterson sucks and should resign many months ago.
And sucks much worse than governors who cheat on their wives.
And sucks much worse than governors who cheat on their wives.
The Bunning Effect
I get very excited when journalists actually look at the consequences of politicians' actions. It's the little things.
Concern Trolling
I'd be more amused by Republican concern trolling if I were less convinced that it probably works, in that Dems actually take it seriously.
Little Wuss From Kenya
I don't pay as much attention as I once did to the rumblings of talk radio, but they're still out there.
Let's see how many posts I can begin with 'I don't" today
Let's see how many posts I can begin with 'I don't" today
Primary
I don't know anything about Bill Halter, but this seems to be a primary which is right on the merits (Lincoln is a bad Dem) and on the political calculus (Lincoln would probably lose her election).
Suburban Town Centers
I don't have any experiences with the places in this article so won't comment on them specifically, but in general terms to support a variety of walkable urban retail outlets you need significant residential density. You can attempt to create that density by building up a lot of itin and near the retail development, but if it is, to some degree, an isolated island, that is a retail-office-housing-complex which is internally walkable but without quality pedestrian links to nearby dense residential areas, it's going to be very difficult to make it work.
People tend to think density is bad, and there are costs to it, but done right residential density can support economically a variety of local retail amenities. Still, it's difficult to graft such developments on top of car-centric places.
People tend to think density is bad, and there are costs to it, but done right residential density can support economically a variety of local retail amenities. Still, it's difficult to graft such developments on top of car-centric places.
Powerless
I've long been fascinated by the weird conceit - feigned or not - that journalists and media figures, even opinion opinion journalists, have no power to influence people, that the topics chosen are beyond their control, that they are mere conduits for Truth and What People Are Talking About. It's all bullshit of course, and I don't think they even believe it, but I guess it's just a way of giving themselves free passes in the accountability free era. Not. Our. Fault.
Not Enough
NYT:
I've finally concluded that the administration thinks the foreclosure process is an essentially necessary one, the way the free market fairies will fix the problem they caused.
The administration’s $75 billion antiforeclosure program, which subsidizes lenders to rework bad loans, has been a big disappointment. One reason is that its usual method of modifying loans — lowering the monthly payment by reducing the interest rate — does not work well for jobless and underwater borrowers. Unemployed homeowners often cannot make even reduced payments and underwater borrowers need principal reductions to succeed over the long run, not lower rates.
And yet, the administration has resisted calls to revamp its program, citing cost and complexity. Another obstacle is that banks are generally loath to modify loans by reducing principal, which would require them to take big upfront losses that they would prefer to postpone.
I've finally concluded that the administration thinks the foreclosure process is an essentially necessary one, the way the free market fairies will fix the problem they caused.
Tea Baggers
It kind of fascinates me that people who have never followed politics, never taken a class in public policy, hell sometimes never even voted, all of a sudden think they know how to run a diverse country of 300 million. Not only do they have all the answers, but anyone who disagrees with them are vermin who need to be eliminated. Since they really have nothing substantial to add to the conversation, I'd like to ignore these people, but the media just won't let me.
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