Monday, June 07, 2010
Halt
I wonder how many accidents it'll take before they halt all of it. Fewer than infinity?
The move from discovery to fracking everywhere without appropriate attention to possible environmental consequences was very fast. Hopefully this slows things down a bit.
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) -- Pennsylvania regulators are halting work at dozens of unfinished natural gas wells being drilled by the company whose well spewed out explosive gas and polluted water for 16 hours last week.
Gov. Ed Rendell said Monday the order against EOG Resources Inc. will remain in place until the Department of Environmental Protection can finish its investigation and until after the company implements whatever changes may be needed.
The move from discovery to fracking everywhere without appropriate attention to possible environmental consequences was very fast. Hopefully this slows things down a bit.
Afternoon Thread
Reasonably exciting day at the dog track today. Maybe if it plunges another 10% we'll get a decent bailout jobs bill.
New Thread
Maybe it'll goose Echo. If not, I'm sure the geniuses at JS-Kit will get to it eventually..
...from their twitter:
...from their twitter:
We've been having longer than expected delays in posting comments, engineers are on it and should be back to normal very soon
Going Backwards
I've been cranky lately, because I think we're starting to retreat.
Congress is encouraging 50 little Hoovers. It's going to work out so well.
Having counted on Washington for money that may not be delivered, at least 30 states will have to close larger-than-anticipated shortfalls in the coming fiscal year unless Congress passes a six-month extension of increased federal spending on Medicaid.
Governors and state lawmakers, already facing some of the toughest budgets since the Great Depression, said the repercussions would extend far beyond health care, forcing them to make bone-deep cuts to education, social services and public safety.
Congress is encouraging 50 little Hoovers. It's going to work out so well.
HULK SEE
An anecdote which does not give me much confidence that in dealing with BP they're dealing with geniuses.
Doing It Wrong
I just had a conversation about this with someone here, about the fact that while in purely cynical terms it makes sense that safe seat Dems are less concerned about the jobs issue than they should be, it's the Blue Dogs who tend to be in less safe seats and who are actually standing in the way of legislation which make might voters a bit less cranky in November.
Never fear. If these people lose in November, they will be comforted by the fact that it wasn't their fault. It'll have nothing to do with the fact that all of their constituents are unemployed, and instead will be because Obama increased the deficit.
Never fear. If these people lose in November, they will be comforted by the fact that it wasn't their fault. It'll have nothing to do with the fact that all of their constituents are unemployed, and instead will be because Obama increased the deficit.
The Second Lien Problem
Again, this is yet another reason why allowing mortgages in bankruptcy proceedings would have been preferable. Obviously people who are staying in their homes without paying mortgages are at least temporarily not having such a bad time of it, but the system is just maintaining both fantasy housing and financial markets.
I imagine the grand thinking behind all of this, to the extent that it exists, is that if you just kick the problem down the road far enough a recovering economy will start to magically solve the problem. But the recovery isn't happening, so...
Foreclosing would require that the mortgage owners re-estimate downward the value of the second liens to what Morgenson calls "fantasy levels." That, in turn, would require them to admit that the loans had gone bad and, therefore, require that they repurchase the loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
I imagine the grand thinking behind all of this, to the extent that it exists, is that if you just kick the problem down the road far enough a recovering economy will start to magically solve the problem. But the recovery isn't happening, so...
Disaster
Matt has been making this point for awhile, but to repeat, when state and local government spending is taken into account, there has been no net government stimulus recently. The federal government is offsetting the state and local cuts mostly, but overall the government is not a source of stimulus. It's good that the feds stepped in, but they should have done more.
Sniffers
I'm a bit skeptical. And it isn't just oil, it's the dispersants.
PASCAGOULA, Miss. -- William Mahan bends over a bowl of raw shrimp and inhales deeply, using his left hand to wave the scent up toward his nose. Deep breath. Exhale. Repeat. He clears his palate with a bowl of freshly cut watermelon before moving on to raw oysters. Deep breath. Exhale. Repeat.
He's one of about 40 inspectors trained recently at a federal fisheries lab in Pascagoula, Miss., to sniff out seafood tainted by oil in the Gulf of Mexico and make sure the product reaching consumers is safe to eat.
Go-Kart
The military budget can never be cut.
I get that people need some entertainment, but a go-kart track?
The cost of the marquee, along with a smaller sign positioned near the airfield: $188,000. Among other odd legacies from war-on-terror spending since 2001 for the troops at Guantanamo Bay: an abandoned volleyball court for $249,000, an unused go-kart track for $296,000 and $3.5 million for 27 playgrounds that are often vacant.
I get that people need some entertainment, but a go-kart track?
Sunday, June 06, 2010
Sounds Like An Excellent Idea
I plan to run on a platform of completely destroying our current way of existence.
David Cameron will warn tomorrow that Britain's "whole way of life" will be disrupted for years by the most drastic public spending cuts in a generation. The cuts, he will say, will have an impact on Britain's entire population.
In his most gloomy remarks since taking office, the prime minister will declare that Britain's public finances are worse than expected and are forcing him to take "momentous decisions".
Cameron will say: "How we deal with these things will affect our economy, our society – indeed our whole way of life. The decisions we make will effect every single person in our country. And the effects of those decisions will stay with us for years, perhaps decades to come."
On The SUPERTRAIN
Family in line behind me was having a difficult time coping with the whole concept. Those SUPERTRAINS are alien technology!
Sunday Bobbleheads
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has the French Open.
Face the Nation has Thad Allen and Bill Nelson
This Week has Kerry, Cornyn, a roundtable with Liz Cheney, George Will, Arianna, and the Great Orange Satan.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has Thad Allen and Bill Nelson
This Week has Kerry, Cornyn, a roundtable with Liz Cheney, George Will, Arianna, and the Great Orange Satan.
Document the atrocities!
Grim
The planet is ruled by idiots.
Yet the conventional wisdom now is that these countries must nonetheless cut — not because the markets are currently demanding it, not because it will make any noticeable difference to their long-run fiscal prospects, but because we think that the markets might demand it (even though they shouldn’t) sometime in the future.
Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Doom
And when the whole thing comes crashing down, we'll all know who to blame.
That's right, liberals. Also their hero, Hitler.
I was completely serious with my earlier post. There are limitless public infrastructure projects that have implicit rates of return greater than the absurdly low interest rates the government needs to borrow. It's lunacy to worry about the deficit and inflation. It's an opportunity!
That's right, liberals. Also their hero, Hitler.
I was completely serious with my earlier post. There are limitless public infrastructure projects that have implicit rates of return greater than the absurdly low interest rates the government needs to borrow. It's lunacy to worry about the deficit and inflation. It's an opportunity!
Charlie Wilson's War
I'm sure nothing could go wrong here.
TIRIN KOT, Afghanistan — The most powerful man in this arid stretch of southern Afghanistan is not the provincial governor, nor the police chief, nor even the commander of the Afghan Army.
It is Matiullah Khan, the head of a private army that earns millions of dollars guarding NATO supply convoys and fights Taliban insurgents alongside American Special Forces.
In little more than two years, Mr. Matiullah, an illiterate former highway patrol commander, has grown stronger than the government of Oruzgan Province, not only supplanting its role in providing security but usurping its other functions, his rivals say, like appointing public employees and doling out government largess. His fighters run missions with American Special Forces officers, and when Afghan officials have confronted him, he has either rebuffed them or had them removed.
Getting A Little Less Hellish All The Time
While people generally think of gentrification as the process wealthier residents displacing poorer ones, it's also about revitalizing retail/commercial corridors that have become a bit, well, hellish. When I first got to the urban hellhole there were only a few locations I would think to direct visitors to, not because the city had nothing else to offer, but because areas were a bit spotty if you didn't have a destination in mind. Now there are many more.
Shoulda Listened To Dirty Fucking Hippies Like Paul Krugman
Eyeballing the graph, the administration projected in Jan. 2009 that if the stimulus was enacted that unemployment would be at 7.5% now. That didn't happen. I hope lawmakers are sensible enough to get that the key to their jobs is... jobs... and maybe do something about it.
Gotta Park Money Somewhere
As we've seen since the financial crisis began, investors still perceive US Treasuries as the safe place to park your money when the world is going to hell. With Europe still going to hell, that's going to continue to be the case. With tremendously low borrowing costs, the US should be raising a ton of cash and building supertrains and hiring streetsweepers for my urban hellhole and fixing water systems and, oh, cleaning up the Gulf coast, and basically anything else to increase employment and employment opportunities.
And Credit Checks
Given that the long term unemployed are likely to fuck up their credit ratings, and given that employers now routinely check them, it doesn't take an explicit policy of not hiring the unemployed to make these people largely unemployable.
Still let's raise the retirement age to 75, that will solve everything. Or at least keep the bond market happy, which is the most important thing.
Still let's raise the retirement age to 75, that will solve everything. Or at least keep the bond market happy, which is the most important thing.
Too Much Going On In The Urban Hellhole Today
NoLibs, Passyunk, Rittenhouse Square...where should I go?
And Speaking Of Drivers
I was pretty impressed by this rant from a Porsche driver angry that scenic route is not his personal racetrack.
(ht fs)
(ht fs)
Road Ragers
Even in the urban hellhole there are plenty of drivers (no idea if residents or not) who get offended at the existence of pedestrians, even though presumably some of them eventually get out of their cars and have to walk a block or two. It isn't uncommon for drivers to gun their engines just a bit as you're crossing the street to scare you, or for them to behave as if crosswalks are violations of their constitutional rights. It's weird.
Evolution
We don't torture.
Enhanced interrogation is not torture.
A few bad apples tortured.
Expert interrogators tortured.
The president ordered torture and he'd do it again.
Enhanced interrogation is not torture.
A few bad apples tortured.
Expert interrogators tortured.
The president ordered torture and he'd do it again.
Still Getting It Wrong
I still read lots of news reports that suggest that a "healthy" housing market involves perpetual price gains. Will nothing kill this idea?
Morning and Shit
Haley Babour snubbing President Obama seems awfully petty when considering the destruction taking place,in real time, before our very eyes.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Since It's A Lovely Racist Friday
Shorter commenters: can't have public transportation because there are black people.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Another exciting day at the dog track. Maybe 9.7% unemployment isn't so awesome after all.
...adding, I don't root for stock market crashes but they seem to be the only things that get anybody's attention.
...adding, I don't root for stock market crashes but they seem to be the only things that get anybody's attention.
Congestion Tolling
My memory from days when I knew this stuff better is that whether or not significant numbers of drivers are made worse off overall depends on what is done with the revenue. If it's collected and then lit on fire then it is actually the case that lots of drivers are made worse off. Travel time value savings are lower than the tolls for many drivers. If it's collected and then rebated back to members of the community or used to reduce taxes elsewhere then that isn't necessarily the case. The critical thing is what value commuters put on their travel time, the price they'd be willing to pay to reduce it, and people who have chosen (realizing choices are heavily constrained) a daily commute down a congested freeway or into a congested urban area have to a degree revealed that they are more likely to be people who don't mind driving in congested traffic as much as other people and therefore aren't willing to pay very much to reduce their travel time.
Cut Spending To Boost The Economy
I wish such madness was limited to the hack ramblings of the Republican House Minority leader, but sadly such madness is everywhere these days.
Fred Hiatt's Crayon Scribble Page Strikes Again
What is the Washington Post actually for? Informing readers of true things does not seem to be a priority.
Only Rich White People Ride The Train
Yes it's true that DC Metro's ridership skews a bit higher income than many for a variety of reasons, but it's a bit kooky to see mass transit as some sort of yuppie thing.
Fracking Up
They found a bunch of natural gas in PA, so of course we're going to destroy the state. Because that's how it works.
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) -- Natural gas and drilling fluids escaped for hours from an out-of-control well in a remote area of Pennsylvania, but the company says the flow is now under control.
Jobs
I think separating out the census jobs provides us with a reminder of just how many months of awesome job growth we'd need in order to get back to pre-recession job levels. Census jobs are real and they will provide some additional stimulus, but the private sector job growth just isn't there. There's an obvious point about where that missing job growth could come from at the moment, but...
Lies and the Lying Liars
I'm sure we can trust them to do a good job.
He also called because on Tuesday BP told me (again) that I couldn't go to Elmer's Island with a producer from PBS's Need to Know because the road to it "needed more gravel." This was a lie: "Everyone else," Elmer said, "is driving on that road"—about 20 cars and vans going up and down a day, and the re-graveling had happened the day before we arrived. Since BP was making my job so much harder, Elmer wanted to make it a little easier.
BP's got good reason for wanting to keep insiders like Elmer away from reporters. Elmer says that last Thursday, when the Coast Guard was announcing that the top kill seemed to be working, the cleanup supervisors on Grand Isle had already been informed it was a failure—which, of course, was not publicly announced until several days later.
Labor Participation
Last month when the unemployment rate shot up to 9.9% from 9.7% we were told that this was actually good news because it was due to the fact that the labor participation rate was up because people were being enticed back into the labor market because of the awesome economy. Unemployment is back down to 9.7% in part due to a decline in the labor participation rate. I'm sure this is good news too.
Summers last December:
Not so much.
Summers last December:
Lawrence H. Summers, President Obama’s top economic advisor, predicted on Sunday that by the spring the ranks of working Americans will start to grow once again.
“Most professional forecasters are looking for a return to job growth by the spring,” he said in an appearance on “ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
Not so much.
Jobs
Ouch.
Census jobs aren't fake, but they aren't permanent either. Private sector jobs recovery still does not exist.
Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting
the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector em-
ployment changed little (+41,000). Manufacturing, temporary help ser-
vices, and mining added jobs, while construction employment declined.
The unemployment rate edged down to 9.7 percent.
Census jobs aren't fake, but they aren't permanent either. Private sector jobs recovery still does not exist.
Morning
So far, the containment dome does not seem to be working. On to Plan F or S or whatever. They'll keep trying until the relief wells are completed. Then it will be time for Plan Z. Hard not to be dispirited.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Fighting Phantoms
This might not be totally crazy if unemployment really does creep down significantly by the end of the summer, but I'm just not that optimistic about it.
The Fed and most of our elites are much more concerned with imaginary inflation than real unemployment.
The Fed and most of our elites are much more concerned with imaginary inflation than real unemployment.
Comments
JS-Kit/Echo seems to be dead at the moment. Hopefully will return...
...and maybe it's back, or not... exciting!!
...and maybe it's back, or not... exciting!!
Cape Hatteras
Hopefully this is all wrong, and it might be because scientists are always MFing lying and getting me pissed, but if it isn't...
Disaster
The elite press is finally starting to get the magnitude of this disaster.
Maybe it's time to ask Gene Taylor if he wants to revise and extend his remarks.
Maybe it's time to ask Gene Taylor if he wants to revise and extend his remarks.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
While a punchline now, it's still maddening that our elites are sticking to the "well, all the smart people got it wrong so bygones" line. The people who got it wrong got it wrong for the right reasons, and the people who were right were right for the wrong reasons, so obviously the first group must continue on as if nothing has happened.
Good Luck Getting A Job At 57
I grow increasingly enraged at all the "reasonable" people who think increasing the retirement age is the very serious responsible thing to do. If you're 57 and you get laid off from your job, you will find it very difficult to find a job earning anything close to what you were earning before. Even moreso at 65 or 67 (current retirement age for my cohort).
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
453K new lucky duckies.
Still high.
Actual government measure of jobs comes out tomorrow, private estimate of that number is +55K, though that only looks at private sector jobs. Census hiring bump will probably cause the number will be higher.
Still high.
Actual government measure of jobs comes out tomorrow, private estimate of that number is +55K, though that only looks at private sector jobs. Census hiring bump will probably cause the number will be higher.
Objectives
I am talking with Juan Cole tonight. Among the issues we will discuss are the US objectives are in Afghanistan. Like atrios, I really do not know what they are.
Wanker of the Day, Climate Edition
Times of London. One begins to wonder what the British Press won't publish because it's silly anti-science bullshit. Here is a Times article that is ludicrously self-refuting:
Britain’s premier scientific institution is being forced to review its statements on climate change after a rebellion by members who question mankind’s contribution to rising temperatures.Gosh! But...
Unfortunately the Times neglected to find a balancing view from the perspective of obviously unqualified cranks with different views from the obviously unqualified cranks it decided to spotlight. That is the real scandal here, clearly.Sir Alan Rudge, a society Fellow and former member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Committee, is one of the leaders of the rebellion who gathered signatures on a petition sent to Lord Rees, the society president.
He told The Times that the society had adopted an “unnecessarily alarmist position” on climate change.
Sir Alan, 72, an electrical engineer, is a member of the advisory council of the climate sceptic think-tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
He said: “I think the Royal Society should be more neutral and welcome credible contributions from both sceptics and alarmists alike. There is a lot of science to be done before we can be certain about climate change and before we impose upon ourselves the huge economic burden of cutting emissions.”
He refused to name the other signatories but admitted that few of them had worked directly in climate science and many were retired.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Just Don't Call It Marriage
Progress. From the prez:
“Last year, I issued a Presidential Memorandum that instructed the Office of Personnel Management and the Secretary of State to extend certain available benefits they had identified to gay & lesbian federal employees and their families under their respective jurisdictions. Among those benefits were long-term care insurance and expanded sick leave for civil service employees and medical care abroad, eligibility for employment at posts, cost-of-living adjustments abroad and medical evacuation for domestic partners of foreign service members. In that same Memorandum, I called upon the federal agencies to undertake a comprehensive review and to identify any additional benefits that could be extended to the same-sex domestic partners of Federal employees under existing law. That process has now concluded, and I am proud to announce that earlier today, I signed a Memorandum that requires Executive agencies to take immediate action to extend to the same-sex domestic partners of Federal employees a number of meaningful benefits, from family assistance services to hardship transfers to relocation expenses. It also requires agencies that extend any new benefits to employees’ opposite-sex spouses to make those benefits available on equal terms to employees’ same-sex domestic partners to the extent permitted by law.
While this Memorandum is an important step on the path to equality, my Administration continues to be prevented by existing Federal law from providing same-sex domestic partners with the full range of benefits enjoyed by heterosexual married couples. That is why, today, I renew my call for swift passage of an important piece of legislation pending in both Houses of Congress—the Domestic Partnership Benefits and Obligations Act. This legislation, championed by Senators Joe Lieberman and Susan Collins and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, would extend to the same-sex domestic partners of Federal employees the full range of benefits currently enjoyed by Federal employees’ opposite-sex spouses. I look forward to signing it into law.”
Enjoy The Beach
I guess it's starting to dawn on them that they helped to destroy their economies and environments.
Silly Democrats
The smart thing for BP to do is funnel all its cash out the door in the form of executive bonuses and stock dividends.
There's just no reason to think BP is a good actor here. Their theoretical primary responsibility is to their shareholders, in practice it's a bit more weighted towards the pockets of top executives. Birds and turtles, not so much.
There's just no reason to think BP is a good actor here. Their theoretical primary responsibility is to their shareholders, in practice it's a bit more weighted towards the pockets of top executives. Birds and turtles, not so much.
Afternoon Thread
Delightful afternoon with the cable guy. Now I get to wait for the UPS guy. Who's bringing lunch?
There Are No Plumes
So shut up shut up SHUT UP SHUT SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP!!!
But 40 miles out into the Gulf of Mexico, ground zero of the oil leak, scientists have discovered three huge swaths of oil particles, some up to 20 miles long and six miles wide, despite BP's claims that plumes do not exist.
These marine scientists onboard the F.G. Walton Smith, a federally funded research vessel, had read a study released in 2001 by the Minerals Management Service and oil companies -- including BP -- that showed they knew how oil and gas would combine at certain depth and stay in the water instead of rising to the surface.
On Sunday BP's CEO Tony Hayward denied the existence of plumes below the surface.
Casino Dreams
As I've said many times before, what bothers me about this casino is that it's a crappy development on the waterfront, not that it's a casino. Still I also expect that instead of gambling our way to prosperity, we'll be looking at a bankrupt casino sometime in the future.
Acts Of God
Acts of God happen when my local sports franchise beats your local sports franchise, not when a company drills a mile down and then blows up an oil rig.
On To Florida
Maybe then it will be real.
The BP oil spill drifted close to the Florida Panhandle's white sand beaches for the first time as submersible robots a mile below the Gulf of Mexico made the latest risky attempt to control the seafloor gusher.
Everything You Ever Needed to Know about the Weekly Standard
Verbatim the Weekly Standard:
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained Sarah Palin's imminent Facebook post on the Israeli Flotilla incident.Hooray for Citizen Journalism!
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Good Luck With That
BP and other defendants in spill cases asked the multidistrict panel to put the case in Houston, home of each one’s U.S. operational headquarters. The companies asked that the case be assigned to Judge Lynn Hughes.
Hughes has lectured for an oilfield industry professional group that pays his travel expenses, according to filings obtained from the Judicial Watch website.
Hughes also owns six mutual funds that include shares in companies involved in the spill, including one fund whose largest component is Anadarko Petroleum Corp., a minority partner in the damaged well, according to the filings.
Among Hughes’s reported mutual fund holdings are Legg Mason Aggressive Growth Fund, which was almost 10 percent Anadarko at the end of March, and AIM Basic Value Fund, which included shares of Halliburton and Transocean as of the same period.
I Suppose It's A Start
Not especially optimistic about how it will conclude.
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - The U.S. government has launched a criminal probe into BP Plc's massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Tuesday.
It Was 10 Years Ago
I frequently wonder if our Villagers have normal human lives, or if they were grown in pod people isolation vats somewhere. It is quite possible for Al Gore to have engaged in a genuinely passionate kiss with his wife of 30 years 10 years ago at the pinnacle of an extremely important time in his life, and for the couple, 10 years later, to decide to separate. Quite possibly they had a few passionate kisses in the intervening years, maybe even recently. Relationships are like that. Also, makeup sex.
Jingle All The Way
I'd be surprised if the worst is yet to come in the foreclosure crisis, but I do think the crisis will continue roughly at its current magnitude for some time.
Reversal
When I was a kid in the burbs, life was basically nonexistent until getting your license gave you a wee bit of freedom. And getting a crappy fast food job kindasortamaybe made it just about affordable, at least insurance and gas if not the car itself. Priorities are changing.
Shorter Richard Cohen
Suck on it liberals, as I told you, black people suck.
(ht adam serwer, who I believe only half sucks)
(ht adam serwer, who I believe only half sucks)
Incentives
Just to make rather obvious point, BP has an incentive to minimize the overall cost to them of this disaster, not maximize the amount of cleaning up they do or minimize the damage. There's no clear reason those incentives should be precisely aligned which is why I don't understand why they're running the show.
Al And Tipper Splitting Up
Presumably because he's fat, has a beard, and wears earth tones.
On to more nonnews...
On to more nonnews...
Price Signals
The problem with sexy ideas like continuously varying tolling is that people aren't actually capable of responding instantly and optimally to such information. The point of congestion tolling isn't simply to soak people for some extra money, it's to reduce congestion by making them change behavior due to the increased cost of entering congested areas. While economists can construct lovely models in which tolls are set optimally minute by minute or block by block, such models assume people are capable of dealing with complex price signals in real time. They aren't. So, yes, if you want to do it keep it simple. I've long thought the simplest way to implement congestion pricing is to increase the cost of parking in the relevant area.
On Walking Away
I hope it's finally penetrated the public consciousness that it's perfectly acceptable to make cold-hearted morality free financial decisions when dealing with actors that are making cold-hearted morality free financial decisions. For too long we've heard bleatings from the press painting walking away as some sort of moral and ethical issue, placing ethical obligations on people that aren't put on businesses in similar situations. If it makes financial sense for you, walk away.
No We Can't
Herbert writes about what's been bugging me for awhile, the weird can't-do mentality that seems to have gripped the nation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)