Rock on.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
World's Passing Them By
Generational change is hard, but...it's over.
Though for me, the only thing more delightful than a run by MITTENS would be a run by Newt.
Though for me, the only thing more delightful than a run by MITTENS would be a run by Newt.
Critic
Tom Friedman was much an Iraq war critic as I have been a Barack Obama critic. I have been critical of Obama many times, but I still wanted him to win this election. Even though I was a supporter of Obama, I am not a child. I recognize that the Obama Presidency will not be the fantasy Atrios presidency. He will do what he does, and I will have little to no influence on that. Still, if Obama fucks everything up, I will have some responsibility for that. I raised money for him, I voted for him, and used my mighty blog to encourage others to do so.
Tom Friedman was a supporter of the Iraq war. He encouraged it, and even as it went bad, kept telling us to hang in there for another 6 months. Perpetually. He has criticized how the war has unfolded, but he has about as much influence on that as I have on President Obama. He is war supporter and critic, as I am Obama supporter and critic. And when hundreds of thousands of people died, a consequence with nontrivial probability in a war zone, Tom Friedman had some responsibility for that no matter how critical he was of those who engineered the war he wanted.
And, uh, New Yorker? How about some credit for the "Friedman Unit." It's mine, damnit, mine!
Tom Friedman was a supporter of the Iraq war. He encouraged it, and even as it went bad, kept telling us to hang in there for another 6 months. Perpetually. He has criticized how the war has unfolded, but he has about as much influence on that as I have on President Obama. He is war supporter and critic, as I am Obama supporter and critic. And when hundreds of thousands of people died, a consequence with nontrivial probability in a war zone, Tom Friedman had some responsibility for that no matter how critical he was of those who engineered the war he wanted.
And, uh, New Yorker? How about some credit for the "Friedman Unit." It's mine, damnit, mine!
Our Stupid Discourse
The discussion on MSNBC yesterday after Obama's press conference reminded me that the people who are paid lots of money to explain politics to us have zero grasp of policy. Essentially Chris Matthews was opining that Obama might change his tax plan because the way he described it yesterday was different than that whole Marxist-Socialist-Commie redistributive stuff that he talked about in the campaign. Of course Obama didn't talk about his plan that way in the campaign, John McCain did. Obama said nothing yesterday to suggest that his actual tax plan might change, though of course it might. Even if you buy the idea that he was spinning his plan slightly differently than he was during the campaign (he wasn't), that doesn't change the fact the plan itself has yet to change. But for Chris Matthews and the gang this was evidence that maybe Obama wasn't as much of a socialist as they thought.
Gonna be a Big Dumb Four Years! Even That One can't change that.
Gonna be a Big Dumb Four Years! Even That One can't change that.
Those Robocalls Weren't GOTV
If by "robocalls" Ambinder is referring to are the slime calls, then it's pretty clear that McCain didn't have any GOTV operation at all.
"Free-Marketers"
This absurd Washington Post article is all about how the government bailout of the financial system has been constructed based on "free-marketer" principles, except when pesky political considerations might get in the way.
All of this in the context of the "free-marketers" getting $700 fucking billion dollars from the government.
All of this in the context of the "free-marketers" getting $700 fucking billion dollars from the government.
Friday, November 07, 2008
U6
The headline unemployment number, U3, grew from 6.1 to 6.5% in October.
The broader number, U6, grew from 11.0 to 11.8%.
There's no "right" number; they measure different things. But in addition to high and increasing unemployment, we have high and increasing underemployed and people who've just given up on finding a job.
One year ago, U6 was at 7.9%.
The broader number, U6, grew from 11.0 to 11.8%.
There's no "right" number; they measure different things. But in addition to high and increasing unemployment, we have high and increasing underemployed and people who've just given up on finding a job.
One year ago, U6 was at 7.9%.
I Bet You Can't Either
One of the things that Fox's Carl Cameron asserted about Sarah Palin was that she she was unable to name all of the nations in North America. It wasn't quite clear if this was just a poorly worded repetition of his claim that she didn't know which countries were in NAFTA, but it was a distinct claim and it's been repeated elsewhere.
I guarantee nobody repeating this assertion could actually do it.
I guarantee nobody repeating this assertion could actually do it.
Going Forward
It's going to be very interesting to see how the press adjusts to the new reality that Republicans don't matter.
66% Favorable
Not sure we really need a daily tracking poll of that, but it's good to see that plenty of people who didn't vote for Obama haven't yet decided that they hate him.
President-Elect Obama
Holy fucking shit.
...and the first question at the press conference goes to the PICKLER.
...and the first question at the press conference goes to the PICKLER.
Dividing the Country
There's a discussion on Hardball MSNBC with Tweety and the gang about whether Obama would try to stop Congress from doing things which "divide the country." And then brought up that horribly divisive issue of... union card check legislation.
I've long wondered what "dividing the country" means. I've finally figured it out that means "doing things Beltway pundits don't like."
I've long wondered what "dividing the country" means. I've finally figured it out that means "doing things Beltway pundits don't like."
Ha Ha
Karma:
Ha ha:
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Las Vegas Sands Corp., billionaire Sheldon Adelson's casino company, fell the most in New York trading since going public after saying it may default on debt and face bankruptcy.
The casino owner, which had $8.8 billion in long-term debt at the end of June, said in a regulatory filing today that it probably won't meet the requirements of loans arranged by Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. unless it cuts spending on developments, boosts earnings at its Las Vegas Strip casinos and raises more capital.
The reversal of fortune is a black eye for the 75-year-old Adelson, who was once America's third-richest man on the strength of his Las Vegas Sands holdings. The Las Vegas-based company's dwindling cash flow is threatening $16 billion worth of developments in Macau, China, and Singapore, where Las Vegas Sands is building resorts to cater to wealthy Asian gamblers.
Ha ha:
“Ideologically, we are inspired by much of Ronald Reagan’s thinking — peace through strength, protect and defend America, and prosperity through free enterprise,” Mr. Fleischer said.
Among the group’s founders are Sheldon G. Adelson, the chairman and chief executive of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, who ranks sixth on the Forbes Magazine list of the world’s billionaires; Mel Sembler, a shopping center magnate based in St. Petersburg, Fla., who served as the ambassador to Italy and Australia; John M. Templeton Jr., the conservative philanthropist from Bryn Mawr, Pa.; and Anthony H. Gioia, a former ambassador to Malta who heads an investment group based in Buffalo, N.Y. All four men are long-time prolific donors who have raised money on behalf of Republican and conservative causes.
Double Ouch
BLS:
Original September number was -159K.
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate
rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department
of Labor reported today. October's drop in payroll employment followed declines of
127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen by
1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred
in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construc-
tion, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued
to add jobs.
Original September number was -159K.
Ouch
Unders win:
This is all President Obama's fault.
U.S. employers cut payrolls by 240,000 in October, much more severely than expected, while September registered the biggest monthly loss in jobs in nearly seven years, according to a government report on Friday that showed U.S. labor markets were sharply deteriorating.
The Labor Department said the national unemployment rate shot up to 6.5 percent from 6.1 percent in September, the highest since March 1994.
This is all President Obama's fault.
"Memo To The President"
Apparently CNN has decided its new job is telling Obama what to do.
Note to CNN: HE ISN'T ACTUALLY PRESIDENT YET.
Note to CNN: HE ISN'T ACTUALLY PRESIDENT YET.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Gonna Be Crazy
Sigh.
NEWARK, N.J. - A family who had supported Barack Obama's presidential campaign emerged from their home in the northwestern New Jersey town of Hardwick Thursday morning to find the charred remnants of a 6-foot wooden cross on their front lawn.
Pieces of a homemade bedsheet banner reading "President Obama , Victory '08," which had been stolen from the yard the night before, also were found, leading investigators to believe the banner had been wrapped around the cross before it was set afire.
Prop H8
Granted myself a little bit of enjoyment for Obama, but screw you bigots and haters and liars.
Church pastors in California were telling their parishioners that it was against the law for them to refuse to hold wedding ceremonies for gay people which, you know, isn't true.
Liars for Christ, a lovely bunch.
Church pastors in California were telling their parishioners that it was against the law for them to refuse to hold wedding ceremonies for gay people which, you know, isn't true.
Liars for Christ, a lovely bunch.
Thursday Night Thread
I gotta pull back from the 14 hours per day blogging.
...maybe I do have some content. Campbell Brown is no KO, but this is spot on. Emailed transcript from her show:
...maybe I do have some content. Campbell Brown is no KO, but this is spot on. Emailed transcript from her show:
Tonight the scape-goating of Sarah Palin. Whatever you may have thought about John McCain’s running mate… about whether she was qualified, prepared or experienced enough for the job… try if you can to put all of that aside for just a moment. Because Sarah Palin is who she is. She did not become measurably more intelligent or measurably less intelligent during this campaign. Remember, she was only part of the campaign for a matter of nine weeks. Sarah Palin is who she is.
Which is why I find it so stunning that the very people who introduced us to Sarah Palin… who told us she would make a great Vice President… have now turned on her with a vengeance. They are the top advisors to John McCain’s failed campaign and they are desperate right now to find someone to blame for their long long list of mistakes. They have been launching grenades at Palin and her supporters… some of their allegations we at CNN have found to be patently false. You will hear people say “this is what always happens with a losing campaign”… and hopefully, this is the last time we will be talking about these people. But what they have done just in the last few days to save their own skins is worth a final comment.
To those top McCain advisors who leaked the little story about seeing Sarah Palin in a towel. To those who called her and her family “Wasilla Hillbillies” while using her to stoke class warfare with redmeat speeches and an anti-elitist message. To those who claim she didn’t know Africa was a continent. To those McCain aides who say she is the reason they lost this election… can I please remind you of one thing: you picked her.
You are the ones who supposedly vetted her, and then told the American people she was qualified for the job. You are the ones who after meeting her a couple of times, told us she was ready to be just one heartbeat away from the Presidency. If even half of what you say NOW is true, then boy, did you try to sell the American people a bill of goods. If Sarah Palin is the reason some voters chose Barack Obama, that is no one’s fault but your own. John McCain, as he so graciously said himself the other night, lost this election. He lost it with your help, your advice, your guidance, and yes, your running mate recommendations. And that is crystal clear to everyone, no matter how hard you try to blame Sarah Palin or anyone else.
Change
So, aside from the obvious (health care), what's your policy agenda? Not fantasy ones that won't happen, but possible ones?
Change
I think the next few months are going to be more than a little surreal, especially for people who are relatively new to politics and whose only real understanding of it is through the lens of Bush World. Somewhat inappropriately, the president and his people really dominate the political conversation in this country. They don't necessarily control it, but they are at the center of it. We're about to wake up in Obama World.
The Last Honest Man
It's not exactly news that the man who wants to end the war more than anyone is a liar. He's not someone who can be trusted. Let's hope Reid does the right thing - not just for the country but for his fellow Democratic senators - and gives Lieberman the boot.
Red State
Joking aside, the problem with Red State isn't that they bring they crazy to conservatism, the problem is that they bring the really stupid to conservatism. If they want to be taken as seriously as they think they should be, they should clear out some of the idiots. I suppose that's unlikely to happen given that their idiot-in-chief is Erick Erickson.
Retail Sales
Big drop.
Because anecdotes tell us everything we need to know, I need to purchase some new clothes, but when I was browsing online catalogs I was pretty shocked at how expensive things were. Anyone else notice big price hikes in clothing? I'm talking pretty basic stuff like sweaters.
Because anecdotes tell us everything we need to know, I need to purchase some new clothes, but when I was browsing online catalogs I was pretty shocked at how expensive things were. Anyone else notice big price hikes in clothing? I'm talking pretty basic stuff like sweaters.
Top Priorities
Earlier by CNN I was told that one of Bush's "top priorities" was a Middle East peace deal. Because peace in the Middle East is what the Bush administration has been all about! Another failure.
Since then, Ms. Rice has proved an indefatigable mediator: this will be her eighth visit to the region since Annapolis. But the political transitions and upheavals affecting politics in both the United States and Israel have already effectively put the talks on hold. Citing the political turmoil in Israel, Ms. Rice implicitly acknowledged for the first time that there was little chance of an imminent deal.
“Obviously, Israel is in the midst of elections and that is a constraint on the ability of any government to conclude what is the core conflict,” she told reporters on the plane as she flew in for talks with both sides.
Little Things
One of the most absurd thing about my local transit authority is the fact that you cannot buy bus/subway tokens at most subway stops. This isn't a big deal for regular riders, but it makes the system a wee bit difficult to navigate for occasional riders. You can pay cash, but it's more expensive and exact change only.
So, yes, the installation of a couple more token machines is a good thing.
So, yes, the installation of a couple more token machines is a good thing.
Possibilities
It's bizarre, for the first time in a long time, to think about an actual positive politics/policy agenda. There are sadly greater constraints than there should be - George Bush's colossal mess, neo-Hooverite Blue Dogs - but for the first time in a long time we can actually shift gears and non-pointlessly think about what could be done.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
481K lucky duckies.
Tomorrow's monthly jobs report is going to be ugly.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 last week to 481,000, according to a Labor Department report on Thursday that still showed the job market under severe strain.
Tomorrow's monthly jobs report is going to be ugly.
I Think An Editor Should Have Caught This?
Time:
Pelosi is the Speaker of the House. Steny Hoyer is the Majority Leader.
(ht reader d)
A report that Emanuel had accepted an Obama offer for White House chief of staff has been retracted, but other reports have said the congressman is "agonizing" over whether to accept the position. He could be in line to replace Nancy Pelosi as House majority leader, which may be what's giving him pause. One thing is for sure: Emanuel will be a powerful force over the next four years no matter where he is.
Pelosi is the Speaker of the House. Steny Hoyer is the Majority Leader.
(ht reader d)
More Morning Thread
You know, I worried that Maureen Dowd might be getting sane on me, but then I saw that she wants to crawl into Abe Lincoln's lap, and I was comforted.
--Molly I.
--Molly I.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
More Scrambling
So there are still five Senate seats that are still open. MN, OR, GA, IL and DE.
Should be an interesting next few weeks.
The recounts will be ugly.
(Update. Forgot AK.)
(Update^2. Commenters note that Oregonian calls it for Merkley)
Scramble
The GOP should be fun to watch. It'll be weird seeing them without an obvious leader/figurehead. In my adult lifetime they've only really been like that during the brief period of the 2000 Republican primary, roughly between Newt's resignation and the choosing of W. I mean, is it going to be McConnell? Hah. Boehner? Hah. Mittens? Huckabee?
SUPERTRAIN
It's a start.
- LOS ANGELES (AP) - California voters are green-lighting the nation's most ambitious high-speed rail system, approving a nearly $10 billion bond to put speeding bullet trains capable of topping 200 mph between the state's major metropolitan areas. The measure, which passed with 52 percent support Tuesday, will fund the first phase of what is projected to be a $45 billion, 800-mile project built with state, federal, local and private money.
Obama's Jewish Problem
Less real than Kerry's Jewish problem.
One would hope that those scribes (the honest but stupid ones, not the hacks) who pushed this idea would rethink some of their premises.
Jewish voters are the second most reliable Democratic racial/ethnic voting bloc, after African-Americans. It's true every election, and yet every Dem candidate has a "Jewish problem."
One would hope that those scribes (the honest but stupid ones, not the hacks) who pushed this idea would rethink some of their premises.
Jewish voters are the second most reliable Democratic racial/ethnic voting bloc, after African-Americans. It's true every election, and yet every Dem candidate has a "Jewish problem."
I Think An Editor Should Have Caught This?
WaPo:
Did WWII last through the presidency of the first president Bush?
The Post asked pollsters, pundits and others what went wrong for John McCain and the GOP. Below are thoughts from Ed Rogers, Carter Eskew, Alex Castellanos, Douglas Schoen, Geoff Garin, Dick Morris.
ED ROGERS
White House staffer to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush; group chairman of BGR Holding
Let the autopsy begin! First, no party has kept the White House three terms since World War II.
Did WWII last through the presidency of the first president Bush?
The Conservative Belt
I don't know to link to it directly, but this front page map/slideshow on the NYT is interesting. If you click through to slide #2 you get the counties which voted more Republican this time than they did in '04. Their geographic concentration is pretty fascinating.
Generations
I think a lot of the talk about the difference in voting behavior by age cohorts (scroll down) has implicitly suggested that this was largely an age-race interaction. That is, older people are more likely to be, uh, discomfitted by an African-American president. I'd imagine that there was some of that, but I'd guess that the bigger effect was simply the age one. Obama actually didn't do too badly with seniors, and his attraction to young people, aside from the fact that they hate Republicans, was in part due to the fact that he seems like he has at least has one foot in the world they live in.
Afternoon Thread
I think a lot of my African-American neighbors took the day off today. A lot of them out and about.
...original source for earlier time travel joke. (...adding Tom Tomorrow asked permission and credited in the strip)
...original source for earlier time travel joke. (...adding Tom Tomorrow asked permission and credited in the strip)
Might Learn To Like This Guy
Newsweek:
When he was preparing for them during the Democratic primaries, Obama was recorded saying, "I don't consider this to be a good format for me, which makes me more cautious. I often find myself trapped by the questions and thinking to myself, 'You know, this is a stupid question, but let me … answer it.' So when Brian Williams is asking me about what's a personal thing that you've done [that's green], and I say, you know, 'Well, I planted a bunch of trees.' And he says, 'I'm talking about personal.' What I'm thinking in my head is, 'Well, the truth is, Brian, we can't solve global warming because I f---ing changed light bulbs in my house. It's because of something collective'."
New Senators
Aside from the wins (and hopefully more squeak through), there will be replacements for Obama and Biden, and probably a couple more at least as Senators find themselves with administration jobs. That's a good thing.
Deep Thought
I bet there are a bunch of, er, retiring Republican staffers who are a wee bit annoyed that their bosses opposed extending unemployment benefits.
The Supremos
As I wrote before, I was surprised about how little discussion there has been about the Supreme Court in this election. But it's a reason to be more than a little thankful.
Pretty Amazing
Obama takes Indiana, probably takes North Carolina. The Mac probably will hold on to Missouri.
Holy Fucking Shit
I forget who originally wrote something like this (ripping off from unknown source), but it always stuck with me. Imagine it's 2001. George Bush has just been selected by the Supreme Court. You really don't like George Bush. Then some guy claiming to be from the future shows up and tells you that George Bush is going to fuck things up so badly that the next president is going to be a black Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama. You probably don't believe him.
...ah, Tom Tomorrow.
...ah, Tom Tomorrow.
It Was All Just A Dream
Jeebus, people, did you not live through the first part of this century?
Campbell Brown: For those people who have been worried about the possibility of one party controlling Congress and the White House, the last president to do that, of course, was....?
John King: Ah, that was Bill Clinton, and...
Brown: Jimmy Carter! Jimmy Carter had... Bill Clinton had Democrats in the House and in the Senate?
King: Very briefly.
Brown: Very briefly. [Crinkles her nose] Didn't go so well.
King: No it didn't.
Bye Bye
Robin Hayes is out.
Democrat Larry Kissell, the small-town school teacher who came within 330 votes of winning a seat in Congress two years ago, ousted five-term U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes Tuesday in a district beleaguered by the loss of manufacturing jobs.
Kissell, a former textile worker from Biscoe, had 55 percent of the vote with 98 percent of precincts reporting, and Hayes, a Republican from Concord, had 45 percent.
"I'm so excited", Kissell told about 75 supporters at his victory party at a Biscoe restaurant. The crowd erupted in cheers when a check mark indicating victory appeared next to his name on TV.
Good morning
As someone who watched it all on the BBC, I have one important question: Did Jane Hamsher actually get to talk to Eddie Izzard?
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Obama Wins NM
Just in case it wasn't clear...
IF YOU BELIEVE THESE PROJECTIONS
we
uh
WIN
I'll wait... a little longer to believe them.
IF YOU BELIEVE THESE PROJECTIONS
we
uh
WIN
I'll wait... a little longer to believe them.
Congratulations Senator Shaheen
Sununu 2: Electric Boogaloo was a sequel which should never have been made.
Congratulations Senator Warner
Think I'll change my last name to Warner, move to Virginia, and run for that seat when he retires.
Liddy
MSNBC sez she's toast, though nothing reported yet.
Kentucky projected for McCain by MSNBC.
Vermont projected for Vermont by MSNBC.
Score is M 8 O 3.
Indiana is too close to call.
Kentucky projected for McCain by MSNBC.
Vermont projected for Vermont by MSNBC.
Score is M 8 O 3.
Indiana is too close to call.
Tick Tock
First polls close in 27 minutes. Don't know if we'll get any information then or if it'll start dribbling out at 7 when all of Indiana is closed.
Tonight
Having people over to watch returns, but I'll still try to keep this place humming. For quick updates I put up a twitter feed to the left.
Exit Polls!
As many others around the internet have warned, these should be used for entertainment purposes only. Still we need to be entertained. Obama did well in early exit polls in Lancaster County, PA.
Early voters only, so certainly no reason to assume they're representative of all voters.
County went to Bush 66-34 in '04.
New Era interviews with nearly 200 early-morning voters in city, suburban and rural districts here found Democrat Barack Obama running ahead in this GOP-dominated county — a bad sign for Republican John McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvania.
Early voters only, so certainly no reason to assume they're representative of all voters.
County went to Bush 66-34 in '04.
McCain True Believers
Probably not many in my readership, but maybe hat or chilibean are around. Running out of time to make your fortune betting on a McCain victory!
Tick Tock
Intellectually I'm fairly confident that tonight will turn out well, though emotionally I'm starting to waver. I felt much better in 2006 with respect to the Dems taking the House.
Blue Philadelphia
Needless to say, where I live isn't exactly typical. But it's nice. So many people are wandering around wearing Obama stickers and buttons. It isn't just that lots of people are voting for Obama, it's that it seems to matter to them.
Worst. Preznit. Ever.
As Matt says, Bush is a horrible man and has been a horrible president. He is completely horrible in ways which have mostly gone unacknowledged by our media. Fortunately we can take some solace in the fact that though it took them awhile, the people of this country finally figured that out.
McCain has not been helped by his association with President Bush, the poll suggests. Fifty-four percent of voters think McCain would continue Mr. Bush's policies, and the president is extremely unpopular: his approval rating now stands at 20 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a president. His disapproval rating of 72 percent matches his all-time high, first reached last month.
Rain
Rain just started here, though it's light. I've walked by a few polling places and only one that I saw, so far, had lines outside.
Perspective
One thing I hate about election days is that reading around the internets you get lots of reports of voting problems, often with lots of exclamation points, by people who don't seem to be able distinguish between serious voter intimidation, general incompetence, and the to be expected occasional malfunctioning machine or whatever. Obviously our election system is completely stupid and in an ideal world we'd have only a small fraction of all of these problems, but not all of these problems are evidence of massive conspiracy.
...adding, voting issues are serious, but the inability to distinguish between the important and the not so important obscures what the real problems are.
...adding, voting issues are serious, but the inability to distinguish between the important and the not so important obscures what the real problems are.
Voted
2 divisions at my polling place. No line for mine, about 20 in line for the other one. Pretty sure the pundits are all wrong and Bob Barr will be our next president.
Person working polling place under mistaken impression that photo ID is necessary for first time voters (like me, just moved). Not true. Non-photo identification verification, such as voter registration card or utility bill, should be enough.
Person working polling place under mistaken impression that photo ID is necessary for first time voters (like me, just moved). Not true. Non-photo identification verification, such as voter registration card or utility bill, should be enough.
Early
Before today, various people told me that everyone thinks the best thing to do is to show up early to beat the lines...and so early is when there are lines. Certainly don't recommend people show up late to vote, and obviously some people need to show up early because of work constraints, but lines are often heaviest in the early morning.
...Mrs. A was voter #86.
...Mrs. A was voter #86.
Just In Case You Forgot
VOTE YOU BASTARDS
...local news reporting 1/6 of one Mt. Airy division has already voted. At 8 AM.
...acquaintance says no working machines at West Philly polling place.
...long lines in Arlington
...local news reporting 1/6 of one Mt. Airy division has already voted. At 8 AM.
...acquaintance says no working machines at West Philly polling place.
...long lines in Arlington
Lines
Around the block here in New York. Longer than I've ever seen. At 6:15 AM. And none of our votes really matter. Heckuva job, Bushie.
Monday, November 03, 2008
He's Come A Long Way
I don't read Andrew Sullivan very much so I'm not really aware of exactly how he's marched himself back from the days when he informed the Iraqi people, "You're welcome," but he just told Colbert that "invading countries without good reason" was not conservative. And in Andrew's world, conservative=good.
Enjoy The Moment
I sorta miss the days when people would tell me I should be nicer to Glenn Reynolds because he was probably secretly a Democrat.
Coal
I have no idea why the McCain campaign thinks this weird coal issue is going to save his campaign. My memory (anecdote!!) from my time in Western PA is that a hell of a lot more people were pissed off that coal mining was sinking their homes than were connected to the mining industry.
Calling
Maybe I was just too young, but I seem to remember that once upon a time we weren't so stupid and understood that teevee networks "calling an election" was just a prediction they were willing to get behind, and not some sort of voice of god proclamation. I don't think there's any reason for them to be an a hurry to do so, but nor should they think that if they do they're crossing the streams or something.
Thanks, Bill Kristol
We owe you one.
There is evidence that Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket has hurt McCain with some voters. Fourteen percent of Obama's supporters say they once supported McCain, and the top reason given for their switch was McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate.
Got A Mule
Sometimes lost, I think, in the discussions of what happens to the world if oil prices really skyrocket is the fact it's really really cheap to ship things on water. If oil prices went up a lot it would still be pretty cheap.
Obviously not all places are well-served by waterways, and the slower speed is problematic for more time sensitive goods. But if oil prices quadrupled you'd see a big shift to shipping.
The canal still remains the most fuel-efficient way to ship goods between the East Coast and the upper Midwest. One gallon of diesel pulls one ton of cargo 59 miles by truck, 202 miles by train and 514 miles by canal barge, Ms. Mantello said. A single barge can carry 3,000 tons, enough to replace 100 trucks.
Obviously not all places are well-served by waterways, and the slower speed is problematic for more time sensitive goods. But if oil prices quadrupled you'd see a big shift to shipping.
Truly Weird Moment
Obama's going into this without any of his guardians left - father, mother, stepfather, grandmother, grandfather.
The End
I agree with Josh that we won't have Palin to kick around much longer, assuming things go as expected tomorrow. Republicans really hate their losers, and while some will lay all the blame on McCain, she'll get her share of it.
I can see her having a brief career doing fundraisers and the odd lecture to groups of old Republican men. Otherwise, not so much.
I can see her having a brief career doing fundraisers and the odd lecture to groups of old Republican men. Otherwise, not so much.
JOEMENTUM
McCain's got droopy dog on stage with him. There's no stopping him now!
That's "Joe the Lieberman" just in case you weren't sure.
That's "Joe the Lieberman" just in case you weren't sure.
Make It Stop
Would someone please tell Senator McCain that the correct "joke" would be "Joe the Senator" and not "Joe the Biden."
Yes I know he's been doing it for awhile.
Yes I know he's been doing it for awhile.
Your Liberal Media
Not liberal and not concerned with the truth.
Once upon a time the people running MSNBC believed that CNN was to the left, Fox was to the right, and they'd aim right down the middle at moderate Republicans who didn't love George Bush. For a variety of reasons that's a pretty whacky business strategy, but it's also why MSNBC is the best place to get the unfiltered view of the Villagers. You know, that "center right" establishment.
Since then things have changed a bit. Now that MSNBC has 2 hours of liberals hosts, to counteract the 3 hours of Morning Joe, the 23 hours of Pat Buchanan, and the regular appearances of Norah O'Donnell and Andrea Mitchell, it has become the ultra-left channel. Perhaps CNN is repositioning.
Once upon a time the people running MSNBC believed that CNN was to the left, Fox was to the right, and they'd aim right down the middle at moderate Republicans who didn't love George Bush. For a variety of reasons that's a pretty whacky business strategy, but it's also why MSNBC is the best place to get the unfiltered view of the Villagers. You know, that "center right" establishment.
Since then things have changed a bit. Now that MSNBC has 2 hours of liberals hosts, to counteract the 3 hours of Morning Joe, the 23 hours of Pat Buchanan, and the regular appearances of Norah O'Donnell and Andrea Mitchell, it has become the ultra-left channel. Perhaps CNN is repositioning.
Becoming The President Is Hard
Tbogg:
I didn't think I would see it, or even anything this close, either. It isn't because I think the country is so racist that a rough plurality of voters wouldn't vote for an African-American, it's because winning a presidential election campaign is hard. Winning a presidential primary campaign is hard. Becoming a senator or governor is hard. Achieving enough in life that running for senator or governor is even an option is hard. And all of that is just a little bit harder if you aren't white. There are barriers, some big and some small, at every level. Given that, and given the number of people who aren't just simply white but are born on third base, it was hard to imagine that anyone could possibly manage to actually do it.
I never thought that I would see an African-American elected President of the United States in my lifetime. I just didn't think we had it in us but it appears that we have most assuredly come a long way.
I didn't think I would see it, or even anything this close, either. It isn't because I think the country is so racist that a rough plurality of voters wouldn't vote for an African-American, it's because winning a presidential election campaign is hard. Winning a presidential primary campaign is hard. Becoming a senator or governor is hard. Achieving enough in life that running for senator or governor is even an option is hard. And all of that is just a little bit harder if you aren't white. There are barriers, some big and some small, at every level. Given that, and given the number of people who aren't just simply white but are born on third base, it was hard to imagine that anyone could possibly manage to actually do it.
100% Principal Protected Notes
Or not.
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland's largest bank, faces dozens of claims in the U.S. from clients who bought ``100 percent principal protected notes'' issued by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. that are now almost worthless.
...
``The sales pitches were that it's good for retirement accounts, and good for the safe, fixed-income part of people's portfolios as an alternative to owning stocks, because it's less risky,'' said Seth Lipner, a lawyer in Garden City, New York, hired by two holders of Lehman notes sold by UBS, including a 65- year-old accountant who says he lost $1.4 million in retirement savings. ``Of course, it turned out to be more risky.''
Run Away! Run Away!
Brave brave Sir Charlie.
John McCain’s first rally of the day, in Tampa outside Raymond James Stadium, only drew about 1,100 people. Local reporters noting that at almost the same spot just before the 2004 election, President Bush drew about 15,000 people. Two weeks ago, Obama drew an estimated 8,000.
Republican Gov. Crist, who had previously agreed to do interviews with CNN and various local affiliates, bolted right after the rally with no explanation.
Let The Concern Trolling Begin
No matter how much Obama wins by, if he wins, the media will have Joe Lieberman and Harold Ford explain to us what it really means, which is that the American public supports exactly what Harold Ford supports. The establishment is "center right," whatever that means, and no matter what public sentiment actually is, they will tell you that the American People support their agenda.
Process
For conservatives we have the "stupid or lying" conundrum, and for centrist Democrats we have a similar conundrum. Do they really genuinely believe that what the great mass of voters want is senators who get along and say nice things about each other, or do they just use that as a way of preserving the status quo.
Nobody really gives a shit whether people in Washington say nice things about each other and go to Nationals baseballs games in bipartisan groups.
Nobody really gives a shit whether people in Washington say nice things about each other and go to Nationals baseballs games in bipartisan groups.
Poll Porn
Final Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
John McCain has cut Barack Obama's Ohio lead more than in half over the past week and-a-half, but the Democrat still is ahead by 7 points, the final Quinnipiac Poll shows.
The university's poll of other swing states shows Obama up 10 in Pennsylvania, but his 2-point margin in Florida makes that state too close to call.
Deep Thought
The very liberal MSNBC is currently giving me Mike Barnicle, Peggy Noonan, and Mike Murphy.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Anecdote
I always post anecdotal evidence with a bit of tongue in cheek because, well, the plural of anecdote is not data. Still I also only throw it out there when I sense it might have a bit of meaning. When I hear South Philly Italian-Americans are voting for Obama, and then walk around South Philly and see almost no McCain signs, I think there might be a bit of meaning there. This was Bush sign territory in '04, and old South Philly Italian-Americans aren't generally known for their fondness for African-Americans.
I marvel at Jay Nordlinger's ability to determine the will of the voters in such detail. Mad skills!
I marvel at Jay Nordlinger's ability to determine the will of the voters in such detail. Mad skills!
Doesn't Anyone Remember Anthrax?
The reporter plays up the ZOMG HE PRAISED BUSH angle, but my pet peeve is a different one.
We don't know who was responsible for the anthrax attacks, and there are plenty of reasons to think the perp was domestic, not foreign. I know many people disagree with my belief that it was the anthrax attacks, and not 9/11, that drove the nation mad. It's a debatable proposition. Still, I was reading through the beginning of the new David Rees Get Your War On compilation and came across this one which summed it up pretty well:
9/11 was a horribly successful attack by villains. Anthrax was... SUPERVILLAINS. Something else entirely.
So it was a bit surprising when Mr. McCain offered praise of President Bush on Sunday, reprising a line he has hardly used, if he has used it at all, since the Republican primary battles ended. It came as Mr. McCain praised Tom Ridge, the former Pennsylvania governor and Homeland Security secretary, who had introduced him.
“I think that Tom Ridge — and President Bush — deserve some credit for the fact there’s not been another attack on the United States of America since 9/11,’’ he said.
We don't know who was responsible for the anthrax attacks, and there are plenty of reasons to think the perp was domestic, not foreign. I know many people disagree with my belief that it was the anthrax attacks, and not 9/11, that drove the nation mad. It's a debatable proposition. Still, I was reading through the beginning of the new David Rees Get Your War On compilation and came across this one which summed it up pretty well:
9/11 was a horribly successful attack by villains. Anthrax was... SUPERVILLAINS. Something else entirely.
Poll Porn
CBS:
...final USA Today:
With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.
As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.
...final USA Today:
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.
With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders' support is estimated to be:
• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.
The Supremos
I was talking with someone the other day about how oddly absent the Supremos are in this election. The candidates aren't bringing them up much. The press isn't bringing them up much. The next president will likely get to make 2, if not 3, appointments pretty much the day after he takes office.
Not saying the lack of discussion is good or bad, just find it a bit weird. Supremo discussions usually loom large in presidential politics.
Not saying the lack of discussion is good or bad, just find it a bit weird. Supremo discussions usually loom large in presidential politics.
Underused
The commuter rail system couldn't come close to handling demand for trips into Philadelphia on Friday, but for some reason it seems that the 100, 101, and 102 lines had at least some excess capacity. In the future this is something SEPTA should take into account and make sure to advertise their existence more when there are big events in the city. They require a switch to the El at 69th street, but they're still decent routes into the city.
Stupid Or Dishonest
No we'll never know the answer to that and they aren't mutually exclusive, but thinking about all the stupid shit the wingnutosphere has been obsessing about during this election makes me lean a bit more towards the stupid column.
The Coming War Between the UK and Iceland
Not really, but things are heating up.
No one disputes that the economic troubles of Iceland are largely the country's fault. But there may be more to the story, at least in the view of Icelandic government, its citizens and even some outsiders. As grave as their situation already was, they say, Britain — their old friend, NATO ally and trading partner — made it immeasurably worse.
The troubles between the countries began three weeks ago when Britain took the extraordinary step of using its 2001 antiterrorism laws to freeze the British assets of a failing Icelandic bank. That appeared to brand Iceland a terrorist state.
Premature Postgame
During the primary, one of the things I found the most frustrating was the argument made my some, implicitly and explicitly, that Obama just Could. Not. Win. The Clinton campaign made it, as did many Clinton supporters. I don't like electability arguments generally, and I also couldn't see how it was in any way obvious that Obama would have more problems than Clinton in that area. People are free to have opinions on such matters, of course, but I was surprised at the degree of certainty which some people had about the subject.
On Tuesday we'll see!
On Tuesday we'll see!
Poll Porn
Final CNN national poll via email has Obama up 53-46 with likely voters and 55-42 with registered voters.
World Fucking Champions
One day we'll grow up and wonder why people ever cared about this stuff.
It was hardly on the scale of a wardrobe malfunction, but Chase Utley's dropping of the F-bomb on live TV and radio yesterday caused a stir among some Philadelphians.
After proclaiming "World champions!" at the Phillies' celebration at Citizens Bank Park, the smiling second baseman leaned into the microphone and inserted a familiar two-syllable profanity between "world" and "champions."
The crowd loved it, erupting into cheers for several minutes. Local TV and radio stations covering the event live, however, were less amused.
Anecdote
Friend who lives a bit deeper in South Philly than I do reports that all the older Italian-American guys on her block, who were out chatting while she was doing work outside, are voting for Obama because McCain is just like that Bush guy.
Tomorrow I'll tell you what my cab driver is doing.
Jokes aside, McCain is not going to win Pennsylvania.
Tomorrow I'll tell you what my cab driver is doing.
Jokes aside, McCain is not going to win Pennsylvania.
Matt Drudge Still Rules Their World
I must disagree with the emerging "Matt Drudge has lost his superpowers" theme. He still rules their world. He still is America's Assignment Editor. Every day cable news talks about whatever Drudge and the McCain campaign (sometimes indistinguishable, sometimes not) want them to talk about.
It is true that the McCain campaign has been awful. The puke they've been pumping through the puke funnel has been inane and often counterproductive. Drudge is only as good as the material he has to work with. He isn't powerful enough to convince the bobbleheads that his latest revelations are of earthshattering importance. But he's powerful enough to convince them to engage and discuss his latest revelations, because if it's on Drudge it's "out there."
It is true that the McCain campaign has been awful. The puke they've been pumping through the puke funnel has been inane and often counterproductive. Drudge is only as good as the material he has to work with. He isn't powerful enough to convince the bobbleheads that his latest revelations are of earthshattering importance. But he's powerful enough to convince them to engage and discuss his latest revelations, because if it's on Drudge it's "out there."
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
Chick free.
- ABC's "This Week" — David Axelrod, campaign adviser for Barack Obama; Rick Davis, campaign manager for John McCain. ___ CBS' "Face the Nation" — Axelrod; Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and John Ensign, R-Nev. ___ NBC's "Meet the Press" — Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.; former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn. ___ CNN's "Late Edition" — Sens. Bob Casey, D-Pa., and Arlen Specter, R-Pa.; Govs. Tim Kaine, D-Va., Mark Sanford, R-S.C., Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn., and Deval Patrick, D-Mass. "Fox News Sunday" _ Davis; David Plouffe, campaign manager for Obama.
Chick free.
Department Of What Are They Thinking
Just started watching Tivo'd SNL. Um... I thought the Palin appearance was bad. WTF?
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