Thursday, January 07, 2010
And The Winners Are....
This rough-and-ready analysis suggests that the states most likely to benefit from the health care reform tend to have Republican representatives in the Congress who actively work against the reform:
Funny that.
Here’s how our categorization of states works—we classified states as “High Benefit” if the percentage of uninsured is above the national average and as “Low Benefit” if the rate is less than the national average. We then classified states by whether they would be “High Cost”—the top half of the distribution—for each of the financing approaches.
As Exhibit 1 shows, the states most likely to “win” as a result of health care reform are Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. All of these states have a relatively high number of uninsured and all are in the bottom half of states in terms of cost under both financing mechanisms. States with a high proportion of uninsured residents also included Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Wyoming, but those states are above average in terms of the costs they would bear under each financing option.
Among the states most likely to “lose” are Delaware, Nebraska, and New Hampshire as well as the District of Columbia. Each of these states has a relatively lower-than-average proportion of uninsured residents, and each would fall in the “High Cost” category under either of the financing options. There are four states—Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, and Rhode Island—that while also “Low Benefit” are “Low Cost” as well.
The winner-loser status of the remaining states depends on the financing mechanism used. Under scenarios of taxing higher-income residents, six states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Georgia, New Jersey, and Virginia) would “lose” in terms of cost but would benefit in terms of expanded coverage. Another nine states would be high-cost and low-benefit under either of the financing options. With a tax on high-premium insurance policies, nine states would fare the worst; these states would be both “Low Benefit” and “High Cost” under this scenario.
Funny that.
Taxing "Cadillac" Health Insurance Plans
This article is quite good on the topic in general and the problems with the idea that consumers can cut back on unnecessary consumption while not cutting back on crucial care. It also points out that it's not "excess" use that is the main cause of rising costs but the very high average costs of that use.
Republicans Lie..
They do it a lot. Jed over at the orange monster dissects the latest lie about how the President doesn't use the word terrorism by using video that the news organizations have access to because they ran all of the President's speeches.
Solving a Problem by Creating Another
I'm all for increasing funding for higher education, in particular, community colleges. However, I'm not sure the Terminator's idea to privatize the prisons as a way to increase state funds for higher education is the best way to go about it.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Hello Johnson
One can argue that Senator Dodd isn't as aggressive as he should be when it comes to financial regulation reform. However, when comparing Dodd to the alternative, we should all be pulling on wishbones and throwing pennies into fountains in the hopes that Congress will pass financial regulation reform this year.
The Governator Iz Buzy
"Fixing" California:
Oh my. This sounds like he's taking with one hand and giving with the other.
He also complained about California giving more to the federal government than it gets back. Some states are net givers to the federal pot, others net takers, and it's always fun to correlate that with the blue and red Americas.
Schwarzenegger called for overhauls including changing the state's tax and pension systems and allowing for private prisons, red flags to powerful unions and their allies.
Schwarzenegger's jobs plan is part of a five-point package that also includes tax credits for first-time home buyers and lower sales taxes for green technology, and measures to limit lawsuits against businesses and make it harder for environmental regulations to block big construction projects.
Oh my. This sounds like he's taking with one hand and giving with the other.
He also complained about California giving more to the federal government than it gets back. Some states are net givers to the federal pot, others net takers, and it's always fun to correlate that with the blue and red Americas.
Conrad/Judd Commission
Digby had this post up the other day about Pete Peterson and his ongoing quest to "reform" entitlement spending. He seems to be ratcheting up the pressure using the current fiscal crisis as a rationale. Classic Shock Doctrine.
Now, Kent Conrad and Gregg Judd have joined forces to try and have a commission set up to make *binding* recommendations to reform Social Security and Medicare which they claim are unsustainable. Kind of interesting that Conrad is saying this now, while he is voting for the Health Care Bill which extends the life of Medicare. I have a couple of questions about the binding nature of the Senate commission. First and foremost, would the recommendations be binding on the House as well. Another, will any other Republican, besides Judd, vote for this? They've been trying to kill Social Security from the git go. Will they switch now or hold to their determination to prevent any and all Democratic initiatives.
Second attempt. For some reason blogger moved this to 10:17 a.m.
Now, Kent Conrad and Gregg Judd have joined forces to try and have a commission set up to make *binding* recommendations to reform Social Security and Medicare which they claim are unsustainable. Kind of interesting that Conrad is saying this now, while he is voting for the Health Care Bill which extends the life of Medicare. I have a couple of questions about the binding nature of the Senate commission. First and foremost, would the recommendations be binding on the House as well. Another, will any other Republican, besides Judd, vote for this? They've been trying to kill Social Security from the git go. Will they switch now or hold to their determination to prevent any and all Democratic initiatives.
Second attempt. For some reason blogger moved this to 10:17 a.m.
Taking Their Cues
As I've said, the media still continue to take their cues from whatever the latest Republican talking point of the day is. Old habits die hard, or perhaps not at all.
I Bet They Basically All Agree
But the tricky bit is how to deal with the issue. On that they probably don't agree. And so the status quo wins.
Jobs
Monthly jobs report comes out Friday. Monthly private guess at what's in that report says it's -84k jobs.
Early Morning Thread
GOP Chairman Michael Steele does not think that the Republicans can take the House back this coming fall. Let's all hope that he is right, this time.
Dodd Out
He's going to announce that he's not running for re-election. Not sure what it does to the Senate race but it's really too bad that he's leaving the Senate.
Our CT polling is confirming a Blumenthal/Dodd swap would make the seat uber safe for Dems.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
The Worst People In The World
I never understood how people who saw Shattered Glass saw the character of Lane as some kind of hero. Obviously he was meant to be in the movie, but even given the attempts of those who made it I thought he sucked. I don't really know how true the characterization was of him then, but he's really a horrible human being now.
Every Time I Try To Get Out
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Good luck with that.
Encouraged by a group of influential New York Democrats, Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman from Tennessee, is weighing a bid to unseat Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand in this fall’s Democratic primary, according to three people who have spoken with him.
Good luck with that.
Late Night
Currently my internet connection requires the use of a tin can and a string. Soon I'll most likely be off the grid completely for about 5 days. I don't think I've been off the grid for 5 days since there was a grid.
Thanks to all who are helping to keep the place running...
Thanks to all who are helping to keep the place running...
Going Back To The Walkman
That's how one Treasury official described the idea of bringing back the Glass-Steagall Act. That Act was a firewall between investment and depository landing and it might just be the case that its repeal about ten years ago has something to do with the financial markets turning into casinos.
Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig suggests that a firewall might be a good idea, after all. But of course not the Glass-Steagall Act itself!:
Get your popcorn ready.
Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig suggests that a firewall might be a good idea, after all. But of course not the Glass-Steagall Act itself!:
Hoenig, an experienced bank regulator, made clear he was not advocating such a big step.
"We have to go back and think of some of the reasons why this came about at these very large institutions -- without changing the structure that eliminated Glass-Steagall -- and the consequences of that," he said.
Get your popcorn ready.
Ethics
Thing is, there are several international protocols, and also domestic statements of proper ethical behavior by medical professional associations that bar participation in torture.
And yet, this continues.
When one very persistent member of one such organization, the American Psychological Association, points out that violations are taking place, the Association can't seem to keep their files in order.
And yet, this continues.
When one very persistent member of one such organization, the American Psychological Association, points out that violations are taking place, the Association can't seem to keep their files in order.
And By The Way, It Isn't Over
I'm not even sure why we're even talking about subprime anymore, but anyway... it probably isn't even close to being over.
-
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Homeowners with the best credit are the next big risk for the U.S. housing market.
An increase in mortgage defaults among prime borrowers in 2009 is likely to accelerate this year, slowing the real estate recovery even as Americans become more optimistic about the economy, said Robert Shiller and Karl Case, the economists who created the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
“There will be continuing foreclosures, and not just subprime, it will be prime mortgages,” Shiller, a professor at Yale University, said in an interview. “This is creating a huge shadow inventory of homes that are still owned, but they’re going to be on the market in the next year or so.”
If Only They'd Listened To Those Pesky Bloggers
Principal modification, one way or another, was always the only way to help solve this mess.
The administration supported bankruptcy cramdown in theory, but by all accounts expended no effort to get members of Congres to vote for it. And I don't buy into the theories of administrative helplessness. They don't control Congress, but they certainly have influence.
- The best way to modify an underwater loan is to reduce the principal balance, lowering the monthly payment and restoring equity. But for the most part, lenders have refused to reduce principal because it would force them to take an immediate loss on the loan. Lenders also have vehemently — and successfully — resisted Congressional efforts to change the law so that bankruptcy courts could reduce the mortgage balances for bankrupt borrowers. The administration decided not to press lenders to grant principal reductions in the flawed belief that simply making payments more affordable would be enough to forestall foreclosures. It hasn’t. The administration also didn’t fight for the bankruptcy fix when it was before Congress last year despite President Obama’s campaign promise to do so.
The administration supported bankruptcy cramdown in theory, but by all accounts expended no effort to get members of Congres to vote for it. And I don't buy into the theories of administrative helplessness. They don't control Congress, but they certainly have influence.
CRE Hell
Silicon Valley edition:
-
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Silicon Valley is beset by the biggest office property glut since the dot-com bust, leaving the U.S. technology hub with empty high-rises and office parks that make it impossible for landlords to sustain average rents.
More than 43 million square feet (4 million square meters) -- the equivalent of 15 Empire State Buildings -- stood vacant at the end of the third quarter, the most in almost five years, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. San Jose, Sunnyvale and Palo Alto have 11 empty office buildings with about 3 million square feet of the best quality space.
The First Rule Of Industrial Policy
Herbert:
One of my longstanding pet peeves is that everyone in the US pretends we don't have an "industrial policy" because that implies naughty state intervention in certain sectors. But of course we have lots of naughty state intervention in certain sectors, we just don't do it even notionally for any good reason. We prop up the single family homebuilding industry and the automobile industry (even before the bailouts). We prop up certain agricultural sectors. We favor big business over small. Now we're massively propping up one skimmer industry - the financial industry - and are about to prop up another skimmer industry - health insurance.
So, yes, by design or accident we have industry policy. We should recognize that and then decide what we should be doing instead of pretending we don't have any.
- This is a society in deep, deep trouble and the fixes currently in the works are in no way adequate to the enormous challenges we’re facing. For example, an end to the mantra of monthly job losses would undoubtedly be welcomed. But even if the economy manages to create a few hundred thousand new jobs a month, it would do little to haul us from the unemployment pit dug for us by the Great Recession. We need to create more than 10 million new jobs just to get us back to where we were when the recession began in December 2007. What’s needed are big new innovative efforts to fashion an economy that creates jobs for all who want and need to work. Just getting us back in fits and starts over the next few years to where we were when the recession began should not be acceptable to anyone. We should be moving now to invest aggressively in a new, greener economy, leading the world in the development of alternative fuels, advanced transportation networks and the effort to restrain the poisoning of the planet. We should be developing an industrial policy that emphasizes the need for America to regain its manufacturing mojo, as tough as that might seem, and we need to rebuild our infrastructure.
One of my longstanding pet peeves is that everyone in the US pretends we don't have an "industrial policy" because that implies naughty state intervention in certain sectors. But of course we have lots of naughty state intervention in certain sectors, we just don't do it even notionally for any good reason. We prop up the single family homebuilding industry and the automobile industry (even before the bailouts). We prop up certain agricultural sectors. We favor big business over small. Now we're massively propping up one skimmer industry - the financial industry - and are about to prop up another skimmer industry - health insurance.
So, yes, by design or accident we have industry policy. We should recognize that and then decide what we should be doing instead of pretending we don't have any.
Another Good Reason to Elect Democrats
Stories like this don't get enough play.
"Soon after she became the nation's labor secretary, Hilda Solis warned corporate America there was "a new sheriff in town." Less than a year into her tenure, that figurative badge of authority is unmistakable."
"Soon after she became the nation's labor secretary, Hilda Solis warned corporate America there was "a new sheriff in town." Less than a year into her tenure, that figurative badge of authority is unmistakable."
Monday, January 04, 2010
Evening
The Son of Erick, on Colbert, pronouncing "Goebbels" as "Gerbils" was mildly entertaining. Not a smart man.
We´ve All Been Subprime For A Long Long Time
I don´t think it´s really a bombshell to anyone who has been paying attention, or reading this delightful blog of mine. It was never a subprime problem, it was a problem of banks lending to people who did not have a realistic ability to repay their loans. The way they dealt with this little problem was to give people teaser rates they could pay for a little while through various types of ARMS.
Who Crippled And Hobbled Them?
From today's news:
It seems to me that much of that damage was self-inflicted by the industries in question.
A dismal job market, a crippled real estate sector and hobbled banks will keep a lid on U.S. economic growth over the coming decade, some of the nation's leading economists said on Sunday.
It seems to me that much of that damage was self-inflicted by the industries in question.
Dont´t Call It A Bailout
I certainly did and do support aid to states as part of necessary fiscal stimulus, but the way to make it happen isn´t for individual states to demand that the federal government make an ¨investment¨ in them. Some sort of formula which didn´t overly punish states that were handling their own problems would be more appropriate.
Limbaugh Loves Unionized Socialist System
This post on SEIU's blog about Limbaugh's stay at unionized hospital in the socialist "foreign exotic place" is a good read.
Good Week For Trader Joes
John Mackey, the CEO of Whole Foods is a full on climate denier. An issue that I assume that a large part of his customer base cares about.
It's not the first run towards libertarian paradise for Mackey, first it was labor practices and then his anti-health care screed in the Wall Street Journal.
I'm pretty sure that at this point the rest of Whole Foods would be pretty happy if John Mackey just went Galt.
Digby has a good post about Mackey this quote just to give you an idea of what he thinks about working people organizing:
In the early eighties, Mackey told a reporter, “The union is like having herpes. It doesn’t kill you, but it’s unpleasant and inconvenient, and it stops a lot of people from becoming your lover.”
They Turned The Machines Back On
Nobody could have predicted...
Meet the new boss.
- Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- To understand the meaning of no good deed goes unpunished, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner can look no further than Wall Street where the banks that received the biggest taxpayer bailouts are seeking to reap trading profits from securities rescued by the government.
Only months after it was started, the U.S. program designed to purge debts of no immediate discernable value from the balance sheets of troubled banks has helped transform the frozen debt into a money-maker as the bonds have rallied. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., who received 22 percent of the $418.7 billion American taxpayers loaned to troubled financial institutions, boosted holdings on their trading books of home- loan bonds that lack government guarantees while investors were raising cash for the program, according to Federal Reserve data.
Meet the new boss.
Structural Shift
I think ultimately what the elite policymakers have failed to realize is that they can't just reinflate the bubble a bit and hope for good times to return. I have no idea through what channel anyone thinks various business tax credits and incentives could cause anything other than higher profits in a period of excess capacity and recession. Krugman:
- During the good years of the last decade, such as they were, growth was driven by a housing boom and a consumer spending surge. Neither is coming back. There can’t be a new housing boom while the nation is still strewn with vacant houses and apartments left behind by the previous boom, and consumers — who are $11 trillion poorer than they were before the housing bust — are in no position to return to the buy-now-save-never habits of yore. What’s left? A boom in business investment would be really helpful right now. But it’s hard to see where such a boom would come from: industry is awash in excess capacity, and commercial rents are plunging in the face of a huge oversupply of office space.
Regulation
I'm all for stronger and better regulation in the banking sector, but it's the regulator supervision that failed much more than the regulation. I'm looking at you Ben.
- ATLANTA — Regulatory failure, not low interest rates, was responsible for the housing bubble and subsequent financial crisis of the last decade, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said in a speech on Sunday.Mr. Bernanke’s remarks, perhaps his strongest language yet assessing the roots of the financial crisis, came as he awaited confirmation for a second term as Fed chairman and as he sought greater regulatory authority from Congress.“Stronger regulation and supervision aimed at problems with underwriting practices and lenders’ risk management would have been a more effective and surgical approach to constraining the housing bubble than a general increase in interest rates,” Mr. Bernanke said in remarks to the American Economic Association.
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Late Night Thread
You might want to discuss what went wrong with the U.S. economy in the last decade, except that it's a very depressing topic.
Rural Gentrification
I think this is an issue which doesn't get enough attention, unlike urban gentrification. The former can be far more disruptive than the latter usually is, and the latter often has more obvious benefits.
I Don't Know What Will Happen In November
But the first sentence in a Politico article about how the NRCC is basically broke is, "With the Republican Party on the cusp of major gains in the House next year — and with the dream of retaking the House appearing to be a real, if improbable, possibility — one major obstacle remains: tightfisted Republican incumbents."
It's always good news for Republicans.
It's always good news for Republicans.
Crazy Prices
In certain bubble heavy places I could always understand, a bit, how it got that crazy. Parts of Florida (not all), not so much.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Chertoff, Hayden, Brennan, and a roundtable thawed out from 1994 including EJ Dionne, Tom Brokaw, David Brooks, and Doris Kearns Goodwin.
Face the Nation has a bunch of people I never heard of.
This Week has a craptacular lineup of John Brennan, Pete Hoekstra, Susan Collins, Joe Lieberman, Jane Harman, George Will, Cynthia Tucker, Ron Brownstein and David Sanger. Glad I can't watch!
I'd ask you to document the atrocities, but the atrociousness is rather self-evident.
Here are some questions which probably won't be asked or answered.
Face the Nation has a bunch of people I never heard of.
This Week has a craptacular lineup of John Brennan, Pete Hoekstra, Susan Collins, Joe Lieberman, Jane Harman, George Will, Cynthia Tucker, Ron Brownstein and David Sanger. Glad I can't watch!
I'd ask you to document the atrocities, but the atrociousness is rather self-evident.
Here are some questions which probably won't be asked or answered.
Saturday, January 02, 2010
Failing Into A Sunday Show Guest Slot
If Republicans are going to regurgitate the same failed spokespeople on national security issues it would probably be smart for the Sunday show hosts spend their time asking Demint, Hoekstra and Kristol about their own failures of judgment over the last few months and years rather than let them just attack the Obama administration without any regard to inconsistency.
Having said that someone like Pete Hoekstra really shouldn't have any real credibility left on anything dealing with national security issues. As of this week it was just a fundraising scheme for his Gubernatorial campaign.
At Least I Know I'm Free
Sign of the times.
- About six million Americans receiving food stamps report they have no other income, according to an analysis of state data collected by The New York Times. In declarations that states verify and the federal government audits, they described themselves as unemployed and receiving no cash aid — no welfare, no unemployment insurance, and no pensions, child support or disability pay.
Don't Forget
The instant we had surpluses, they were used to justify the tax cuts. For one major party it's the solution for everything, and the other major party sometimes is occasionally "fiscally conservative" in the way we're supposed to understand that, but don't get credit for it when they do.
This May Violate International Law...
... But clearly Tintin has been asking for it -- behold: the Ultimate Weapon. The two most hideously unlistenable noises of the 20th Century, New Age music and Ayn Rand, BROUGHT TOGETHER as ONE!
I trust there will be no more of this You-Tube War nonsense, and I apologize for any collateral damage.
To make the Innocent feel better after that, here is a Japanese Freddy Mercury impersonator.
I trust there will be no more of this You-Tube War nonsense, and I apologize for any collateral damage.
To make the Innocent feel better after that, here is a Japanese Freddy Mercury impersonator.
Small Town Hellhole
Certainly all is not grand in the urban hellhole, but often rural/small town drugs and crime are not given the attention they deserve. I don't mean that in the "they have problems too!" sense, I mean the problems are kind of ignored and therefore not dealt with.
Really Dumb Questions
NYT:
- Was Napolitano’s ‘The system worked’ this administration’s ‘Heckuva job, Brownie’?
HAMP Failure
Sadly, the administration really messed up in dealing with the housing and foreclosure crisis. I think they believed their plans would work because the economy would turn around, propping up housing prices. Obviously they were wrong about the speed at which the economy would turn around, but more than that I think they were wrong that the economy turning around at their expected speed would've made HAMP much more successful.
Friday, January 01, 2010
2010 : Everything old is new again
Hey everybody! Guess who still has the keys to the place?
Yeah. Me.
Fox News(sic) went looking for some "Democrats" joining that massive groundswell of an uprising tidal wave of unstoppable forces calling for the head of Janet Napolitano because she failed to personally stop Evil Genius Nomar Fallujah Crotchrocket from almost blowing up every airplane in the world just so Atrios can get his damn Supertrains To Everywhere already.
What Fox came up with was some guy from Jersey and Dan Gerstein who is a "Democratic strategist" if by "Democratic Strategist" you mean "guy who bears the taint of Joe Lieberman's taint, forever".
This comes as no surprise as Glenzilla pointed out, oh, last decade:
The classics never go out of style.
Yeah. Me.
Fox News(sic) went looking for some "Democrats" joining that massive groundswell of an uprising tidal wave of unstoppable forces calling for the head of Janet Napolitano because she failed to personally stop Evil Genius Nomar Fallujah Crotchrocket from almost blowing up every airplane in the world just so Atrios can get his damn Supertrains To Everywhere already.
What Fox came up with was some guy from Jersey and Dan Gerstein who is a "Democratic strategist" if by "Democratic Strategist" you mean "guy who bears the taint of Joe Lieberman's taint, forever".
This comes as no surprise as Glenzilla pointed out, oh, last decade:
This is nothing more than the classic Fox News method at work, and it is used continuously to manufacture non-existent scandals. They find some disgruntled, neoconservative figure calling him or herself a "Democrat" -- a Tammy Bruce or Kirsten Powers or Lanny Davis -- to spout all sorts of angry criticisms towards other Democrats. Notwithstanding the fact that such individuals represent exactly nobody and are complete anomalies among Democrats (which is precisely why they're chosen), their single individualized views are then generalized to "many Democrats" or even just "Democrats" -- as in "Democratic activists in various corners privately questioned the wisdom of the Clinton campaign in choosing to write for a blog associated with Hamsher."
Dan Gerstein -- as a result of the work done by liberal blogs to defeat his career mentor, Joe Lieberman -- has transformed himself into a free-floating, embittered figure who devotes his public commentary almost exclusively to criticizing liberal blogs. Obviously, that is his prerogative. But when he does that, he is not speaking for "Democrats" or "many Democrats" or "Democratic political circles."
The classics never go out of style.
Heading To An Undisclosed Location
I'm off for a bit. I'll continue blogging depending on internet access, though I expect to be without it at times. Might be a new face or two in here posting, and anyone who has the keys should feel free to chime in on any and all subjects that interest them. If the place falls apart I'll put it back together when I return.
Odierno
This may be nothing new - just new to me - but I was surprised to hear Odierno react with such strong language to the news that the case against those (allegedly) involved in the Blackwater massacre was thrown out. On NPR he said that innocent people had been killed and that he feared the ruling would inspire a backlash against the troops and contractors.
Hiding My Naughty Bits
I don't personally have any strong feelings about body scanners, but given the strong nudity taboos in our culture I don't think it's really fair to characterize those who oppose them as "privacy ideologues" as Chertoff does.
Another day, more nonsense in Fred Hiatt's crayon scribble page.
Another day, more nonsense in Fred Hiatt's crayon scribble page.
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