Until Atrios gets back: the Macarena.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Still Not Driving
Interesting that people are still driving fewer miles even though gas has come back down. Economy, new habits, what?
I think a little bit is probably that there's been a small cultural shift, with mass transit now being seen as a little bit more desirable and cool than it once was.
I think a little bit is probably that there's been a small cultural shift, with mass transit now being seen as a little bit more desirable and cool than it once was.
Less Government Regulation
McCain is actually probably right that many small businesses (actual small businesses, not the Republican "everything under a billion market cap" version) face too much regulation. But the federal government doesn't really have anything to do with it, so...
Diva
This is fun.
“She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone,” said this McCain adviser, “she does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: divas trust only unto themselves as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.”
Vote
While I guess people reading this blog know this, it is important to, you know, actually go out and vote on election day. I tend to think people on the teevee overestimate how big an impact calling races early can have on people voting on the West Coast, but just in case... vote!
God Doesn't Like Me This Much
Drum:
And you know the part I'm really looking forward to? Sarah Palin's role in all this. I expect her to rip McCain absolutely to shreds. On background, of course, but it will be no less vicious for that. Her future, such as it is, lies with the wingnut rump of the party, and she knows what her audience wants: John McCain's blood. And lots of it. They never liked him in the first place, and I expect them to be howling for his head on a platter starting at about 8:01 pm EST on November 4th.
Palin Curse
Oops:
ST. LOUIS (AP)—Blues goalie Manny Legace left after one period Friday night with a hip injury that occurred when he slipped on the carpet placed on the ice for Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.
Palin 2012
I think I have yet to express an opinion on that subject. I'm sure some conservatives will become her patrons and trot her out at various events... but, otherwise, it's obscurity.
Poll Porn
My friends, Colorado hates America.
Sen. Barack Obama has surged to a commanding, double-digit lead in Colorado amid soaring anxiety about the country's direction and a massive shift of independent voters into the Democratic column, a new poll finds.
After weeks of devastating economic news, Obama now leads by 12 percentage points - 52 percent to 40 percent - in the latest Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll.
Friday, October 24, 2008
TIME's Blog Managers
If you want, you can see what they've got up now, after a day of "scheduled maintenance."
This stuff happens, of course.
That's Honor We Can Believe in, My Friends
McCain campaign pushed story.
John McCain's Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established -- and even told reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's cheek stood for "Barack," according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.
John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain's Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, "You're with the McCain campaign? I'm going to teach you a lesson."
We're All National News Now
While I certainly don't have much sympathy for Ashley Todd, I do think that in a sensible news world her story would not have ever been a national one, covered by cable news networks and other outlets.
This became national news because it was pushed by Drudge and then seized upon by the McCain campaign (or perhaps in the other order). While news outlets should be able to avoid Drudge's mind control powers, perhaps once a campaign makes a big deal out of something it can't be ignored. Still, as a general issue, there are lots of "small" stories which become "big" and make people into national figures temporarily and that's kind of a shame. Personally I try to not contribute to that, though I of course do at times.
"She just opened up and said she wanted to tell the truth," Bryant said, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "She was upset with the media for blowing this into a political firestorm."
This became national news because it was pushed by Drudge and then seized upon by the McCain campaign (or perhaps in the other order). While news outlets should be able to avoid Drudge's mind control powers, perhaps once a campaign makes a big deal out of something it can't be ignored. Still, as a general issue, there are lots of "small" stories which become "big" and make people into national figures temporarily and that's kind of a shame. Personally I try to not contribute to that, though I of course do at times.
Kudos to Rick Sanchez
Reporting on the attack hoax he actually introduced the notion of media culpability in reporting this stuff.
Though why he's going to bring Neal Boortz on to explain it all to us I'm not sure.
Though why he's going to bring Neal Boortz on to explain it all to us I'm not sure.
Stoking Racial Fears
I didn't post anything about that story publicly because I don't really like jumping on stories about people who aren't really public figures and maybe don't quite have sense enough to understand what can happen when they thrust themselves into the spotlight. And, also, doubting the claims of alleged victims of violence is generally problematic. But, that picture... uh, whatever.
But aside from the obvious ways that this was not an especially nice thing for this woman to do on the politics side, it's also really assholeish to make up stories about a young white woman being attacked and sexually assaulted by a black man.
But aside from the obvious ways that this was not an especially nice thing for this woman to do on the politics side, it's also really assholeish to make up stories about a young white woman being attacked and sexually assaulted by a black man.
College Republicans
KDKA:
A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed. More details to follow.
The Dreams of David Broder
From about a year ago.
The day had been full of ominous warnings. Polls showed the Republicans on the losing side of almost every issue and the 2008 presidential race -- and now they're forced to defend a controversial veto of a popular children's health bill.
But Tom Cole, the 58-year-old Oklahoma representative who this year took on the responsibility for running the GOP's congressional campaign, was remarkably sanguine -- considering.
...
That may seem implausible, but Cole has history on his side. In 1992, as he notes, incumbents were hammered, 24 of them losing in November, 17 others failing in their primaries. The Republicans achieved a net gain of 10 House seats that year, a feather in the cap of the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Tom Cole. Now, no longer a hired staff man but the chairman, Cole faces a familiar challenge. In 1992, the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton for president -- and he won. But his party, nonetheless, lost House seats. Cole is out to make history repeat itself.
Deep Thought
Is Barack Obama planning to kill his grandmother for the sympathy vote, or because she knows the truth about his birthplace?
So Weird
After spending days attacking Obama for his "welfare" tax plan over refundable tax credits, McCain's now attacking him for leaving out the unemployed.
Thanks, Rahm!
Heckuva job.
But a document obtained by ABC News reveals new allegations of threatening behavior and sexual harassment toward a female staffer, that go far beyond Mahoney's public confession, including claims that he urged one of his mistresses to serve as a "tease" for big donors.
The former Congressional staff member, Patricia Allen, was paid $121,000 by Mahoney after she was fired and threatened to sue.
Click here to hear the tape of Mahoney firing Allen.
The settlement was reached after Allen hired a lawyer who sent the Congressman a "demand" letter, listing specific examples of Mahoney's alleged "gross misconduct" and "stalking" including:
"a) Calling Allen late in the evenings and demanding "phone sex;"
b) Demanding that Allen answer his calls or face termination;
c) Demanding that Allen attend fundraisers and "tease c-ck" to bring in more donations from the male members of the public;
d) Demanding that Allen engage in sexual conduct with another woman for his enjoyment."
Current and former staffers told ABC News the allegations contained in the "demand letter" sent to Mahoney were backed up by tape recordings of phone calls between the Congressman and Allen.
Poll Porn
Don't believe it, but it's fun anyway. Georgia:
Presidential
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent
U.S. Senate
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent
Bonghit Philosophizing
There are a lot of things about our media-political industrial class that I sort of understand, but the enduring presence of Gregg Easterbrook is not one of them.
Spreading The Wealth Around
Sarah Palin's on my teevee boasting that Alaska is going to be increasing funding for special needs children by zillions of dollars.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Dow futures down so much that they tripped circuit breaker preventing any selling at lower prices.
Morning Thread
In retrospect, I'm not sure I've spent $150,000 on clothes in my entire life. And I own regalia!
--Molly Ivors
--Molly Ivors
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Even More Poll Porn
CBS/NYT:
(CBS) With just twelve days left until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 13-point lead over Republican rival John McCain, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.
Obama now leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent among likely voters nationwide, roughly the same lead he held last week. Just five percent are undecided, and more than 9 in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say their mind is made up.
That's Mavericky
A few people sent this to me. It's just weird.
Republican John McCain is not going to make his election night remarks in the traditional style — at a podium standing in front of a sea of campaign workers jammed into a hotel ballroom.
Oh, the throng of supporters will hold the usual election night party at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix on the evening of Nov. 4.
But the Republican presidential nominee plans to address another group of supporters and a small group of reporters on the hotel lawn; his remarks will be simultaneously piped electronically to the party inside and other reporters in a media filing center, aides said.
You Can't Fake It, My Friend
Even aside from the obvious facts of his life, McCain just can't pull of the Nixon elite resentment thing because he doesn't understand it. He is an elite, always has been, and more than that has always felt like one.
All Over Except For That Voting Part
I feel like we've entered the unnecessary sequel phase of the campaign. 12 days...
Slander
If I were to call Newt Gingrich a syphilitic goatfucker he might have cause to sue, but I think SNL is ok.
Red Massacusetts
I'd be quite surprised if Barack Obama won Illinois at this point. Massachusetts isn't even a possibility.
It's going to be an epic landslide, my friends, as the country puts country first.
It's going to be an epic landslide, my friends, as the country puts country first.
The Idiots Who Rule Us
In case you were wondering about the ill effects of nepotism.
That's New York Times editorial page editor Andrew Rosenthal, son of Abe "Out Of My Mind" Rosenthal.
Of actual journalists, Rosenthal said he admired the work of the Atlantic's Megan McArdle and the National Review's Byron York.
That's New York Times editorial page editor Andrew Rosenthal, son of Abe "Out Of My Mind" Rosenthal.
Joe The Plumber
To provide some clarity to Steve, he's a white guy who's about to have his pocket picked by a black guy.
It doesn't have to be true.
It doesn't have to be true.
Tinklenberg
It seems that every election a couple of unlikely folk heroes emerge. They don't always win, but they somehow capture our hearts and imaginations.
This year it is, of course, El Tinklenberg.
This year it is, of course, El Tinklenberg.
Ground Game
I'm not sure I ever really believed the tales of Rove&Dowd's awesome 2004 ground game, but they thought it was important enough to at least talk about whether or not it actually existed. But more to the point, if they'd really set up such an organization why would it just be abandoned?
That Will Help
John McCain's on my teevee telling me he'll cut the capital gains tax in half.
Uh, yeah, that will help your campaign. I'm gonna vote for the guy who will cut taxes on my housing gains and stock portfolio appreciation. Oh, wait...
Uh, yeah, that will help your campaign. I'm gonna vote for the guy who will cut taxes on my housing gains and stock portfolio appreciation. Oh, wait...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
BK
Probably just the beginning for restaurant chains.
NEW YORK (AP) — The owner of the Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouse brands said Wednesday it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Metromedia Steakhouses Co. L.P., based in Plano, Texas, said it filed voluntarily under Chapter 11, which allows a company to restructure and stay in operation. The petition was filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware on Wednesday.
Maddow Decade
Nobody could've predicted that there'd be an audience for liberal teevee.
Except me, and of course you, dear readers.
Except me, and of course you, dear readers.
Republican Memo Porn
Because it's fun to watch them suffer.
Heckuva job, Karl.
Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic route that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades.
Heckuva job, Karl.
Ten Likely Events In 2008
From the seers at Businessweek:
Bloomberg's Historic Run
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties. His multiple billions and organization will impress voters—and stun rivals. He'll look like the most viable third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt. But Bloomberg will come up short, as he comes in for withering attacks from both Democrats and Republicans. He and Clinton will split more than 50% of the votes, but Arizona's maverick senator, John McCain, will end up the country's next President.
In Which Joe Lieberman Wears His Sad Face
Poor Joe. No respect, not even from his BFF.
John McCain called out fellow Republicans who have questioned running mate Sarah Palin’s credentials Tuesday.
“What’s their problem?” McCain asked during an interview with radio host Don Imus.
“She is a governor, the most popular governor in America,” McCain said. “I think she is the most qualified of any that has run recently for vice president.”
pwn3d
John McCain's people are giving a conference call trying to convince reporters that al Qaeda doesn't really want him to be president, and Obama's giving a news conference with a bunch of Very Serious People looking, well, serious.
One Narrative
Indeed that's what the McCain campaign failed to do. What was impressive in 2004 was how the Bush campaign managed to take everything they could come up with and neatly slot it into their basic narrative about Kerry, with press helpers of course. The McCain campaign has just been all over the place, choosing to play to win each news cycle, instead of trying to win the campaign. I think winning the news cycle is important, and in other times it might have worked for them. Don't think it's going to work this time.
The Operation
You hear about GOTV operation, but I guess until details emerge it isn't quite clear that it's really going to make a difference.
And, yes, pity the folks doing this in the burbs. Much easier, much more fun, and many more snacks around in the city.
And, yes, pity the folks doing this in the burbs. Much easier, much more fun, and many more snacks around in the city.
The PA Gamble
Basically, it seems that McCain is screwed if he doesn't win Pennsylvania. But he's not going to win Pennsylvania. Draw whatever conclusions you would like from this.
Primaries
It's 13 days before the election, and apparently I still have to explain to the people whose job it is to cover it that results in party primaries really have little to no predictive power for the results in the general. Yesterday someone was suggesting that Obama would have troubles in PA because he didn't win the primary, and today someone suggested that McCain could do well in NH because he won the primary there.
Are they really this stupid?
Are they really this stupid?
Little Girly Brains
What Rick Davis and Bill Bennett understand, and Matt doesn't, is that women have little girly brains which make them incapable of having substantive views on any issues.
Morning Thread
Remember the good ol' days (of about 8 months ago) when the GOP was outraged over $400 haircuts?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NEY NEY IS FREE
Robert Kennedy, Jr. just told me that my BFF Bob Ney is in prison. Not true. He's been released.
Election Night
Lots of polls close surprisingly early, though I envy you West Coasters for being able to make a really early evening of it. Still, all the real die hards will stay up for the Alaska Senate results. Does hulk get smashed?
Overheard In Philly
Just now in the Italian Market:
I've got a pain in my knee. I've got a pain in my left ball. I've got a pain in my back.
And He's The Conservative!
Sarkozy suggesting a return to the old ways.
I guess the Washington Consensus has been poisoned, shot, stabbed, clubbed, and drowned.
In a speech before the European Parliament on Tuesday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested that European countries establish their own sovereign wealth funds to take ownership stakes in key industries. He went on to suggest that European states should coordinate their industrial policies with each other.
As the financial crisis morphs into a wider economic crisis, Sarkozy stressed the need for European states to sustain their coordinated approach. "The economic crisis is here," said the French president. Although Sarkozy argued strongly for a unified response to the problem, he stressed that this didn't mean that every country needed to pursue the same policy. "We don't all need to do the same thing, but we do need to coordinate amongst ourselves and come to an agreement on certain issues." Sarkozy underlined that it would require concerted action among EU countries to ensure that Europe is a place that continues to build "ships, planes and cars."
In his speech Sarkozy called upon European states to set up sovereign wealth funds to help prop up companies listed on European stock exchanges. Otherwise, he said, there is a danger that tanking stock prices will result in a massive sell-off of European assets to foreigners. "I don't want European citizens to wake up in a few months and discover that European businesses are now owned in capitals outside of Europe." He added that the state funds could later sell their stakes at a profit.
I guess the Washington Consensus has been poisoned, shot, stabbed, clubbed, and drowned.
Pennsylvania
The idea that the McCain campaign is going to make a real effort to beat Obama in this state now is amusing. Or, to put it another way, if McCain does win Pennsylvania than all the polling in this election is completely wrong for whatever reason and McCain's going to win a bunch of other Kerry states too. Pennsylvania was close in '04. Very close. 51-49. But the polls before the election were also close. Very close.
The Pennsylvania polls are now not close at all. Many months ago I thought PA would be hard for Obama. But it turns out I was wrong, probably because I underestimated the number of moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs who will actually vote for a Democrat and overestimated the number of conservatives and old people (this is a very old state) in the 'T' who won't vote for Obama.
The Pennsylvania polls are now not close at all. Many months ago I thought PA would be hard for Obama. But it turns out I was wrong, probably because I underestimated the number of moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs who will actually vote for a Democrat and overestimated the number of conservatives and old people (this is a very old state) in the 'T' who won't vote for Obama.
Matt Drudge Still Rules Their World
While Boehlert is right that Matt Drudge hasn't been as influential over this election as he has at other times, I don't think it's correct to discount completely his mind control powers over our nation's editors and TV news producers. Those powers still exist, even if he hasn't been using them very effectively recently. Drudge is good at what he does, but he's in part only as good as the stuff they feed him.
Campbell Brown
I have to say that I've been pleasantly surprised when I've seen Campbell Brown on the teevee. Not because, as the McCain campaign wants you to believe, she displays some evil liberal bias, but because she has a pretty good bullshit detector and seems to live in the reality based community.
Surprised, I must admit, because of this.
Surprised, I must admit, because of this.
Maddow Decade
The nice thing about this NYT article on Maddow is that it actually avoids the usual Howie Kurtzesque fretting about the problem of that dastardly liberal media actually having a liberal on the teevee.
Anecdote
Despite chatter about McCain abandoning other states for Pennsylvania, I've noticed a drop off in McCain ads locally. Perhaps I just don't watch enough Matlock.
Fantasy Election Day
We're at a moment when all sorts of crazy things seem possible. Mitch McConnell could lose! Bye bye Liddy Dole! It's worth remembering that 2 years one crazy impossible thing did actually happen - the Dems took the Senate. It was pretty much conventional wisdom that they'd get the House, but the Senate was an outside shot at best. Macaca!
I thought it was more important for Harold Ford to lose than for the Dems to take the Senate. Fortunately both happened!
I thought it was more important for Harold Ford to lose than for the Dems to take the Senate. Fortunately both happened!
Snap
I'm sure that little insult is going to sting Joe Klein a bit.
But Matt's correct that all major publications who have a reasonable expectation of following a campaign around should have policy that the campaign accepts the reporters they send or none at all. Joe Klein has no right to a seat on the McCain campaign plane, of course, but nor should candidates be rewarded for punishing journalists they don't like.
Campaign spokesperson Michael Goldfarb responded that “we don’t allow Daily Kos diarists on board either.”
But Matt's correct that all major publications who have a reasonable expectation of following a campaign around should have policy that the campaign accepts the reporters they send or none at all. Joe Klein has no right to a seat on the McCain campaign plane, of course, but nor should candidates be rewarded for punishing journalists they don't like.
Why X Won
As I wrote previously, for some reason I'm actually long forward to reading the post-election explanations for why things happened the way they did. They're usually an awful distillation of Village conventional wisdom, and I'm sure a Democratic landslide, if it happens, will be good news for conservatives. But I'm curious.
He Just Can't Connect With Reglar Folks
Just the weirdos.
To put this in context, Obama's favorability numbers, which have increased 10 points over the last month, are now "the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls."
On the other side of the aisle, McCain's unfavorable rating has grown 10 points since September, to 45%, while Sarah Palin's negatives are up 12 points, to 41%.
No Taxation Without Representation
As an emailer reminded me, this new Republican idea that the income tax is the only tax is quite absurd, especially once they start quoting that slogan from the revolution era, when the points of dispute were the Stamp Act and import taxes on tea.
Early Morning FAIL
The spokesflack for Michelle Bachman (aka "Mary Tyler Bore") had this to say after her 'Obama and Democrats are un-American' comment caused a deluge of donations to her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg:
"We have tried to run a very positive campaign."
Monday, October 20, 2008
Stuff Which Won't Happen
Lots of by election day/by the end of the year predictions on file. Guess it'll be boring to roll them all out at once, so I'll do them a bit at a time. From May, 2007:
Oh well.
WASHINGTON, May 25 — The Bush administration is developing what are described as concepts for reducing American combat forces in Iraq by as much as half next year, according to senior administration officials in the midst of the internal debate.
It is the first indication that growing political pressure is forcing the White House to turn its attention to what happens after the current troop increase runs its course.
The concepts call for a reduction in forces that could lower troop levels by the midst of the 2008 presidential election to roughly 100,000, from about 146,000, the latest available figure, which the military reported on May 1. They would also greatly scale back the mission that President Bush set for the American military when he ordered it in January to win back control of Baghdad and Anbar Province.
Oh well.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Blah blah blah...
WASHINGTON — Despite his stated desire to close the American prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, President Bush has decided not to do so, and never considered proposals drafted in the State Department and the Pentagon that outlined options for transferring the detainees elsewhere, according to senior administration officials.
Mr. Bush’s top advisers held a series of meetings at the White House this summer after a Supreme Court ruling in June cast doubt on the future of the American detention center. But Mr. Bush adopted the view of his most hawkish advisers that closing Guantánamo would involve too many legal and political risks to be acceptable, now or any time soon, the officials said.
The administration is proceeding on the assumption that Guantánamo will remain open not only for the rest of Mr. Bush’s presidency but also well beyond, the officials said, as the site for military tribunals of those facing terrorism-related charges and for the long prison sentences that could follow convictions.
Uh, Asshole? Colbert is Parody
Stop hating on the bears.
CULLOWHEE – A dead bear was found dumped this morning on the Western Carolina University campus, draped with a pair of Obama campaign signs, university police said.
Maintenance workers reported about 7:45 a.m. finding a 75-pound bear cub dumped at the roundabout near the Catamount statute at the entrance to campus, said Tom Johnson, chief of university police.
Poll Porn
CBS/NYT:
In a poll taken just before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket held a five point edge, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Democratic ticket and 43 percent supporting the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin.
Those 476 likely voters were re-interviewed for the new poll, and their responses suggest that the Democratic ticket has made gains since the initial survey: The Obama-Biden ticket now holds a 13-point edge, 54 percent to 41 percent, among the group.
Bench
This election isn't over yet and even if it turns out as expected I think it's wrong to underestimate just how fast things can snap back. Still it occurs to me that one additional thing that Bush failed to do was groom any future stars. Obviously once his approval rating put him in Worst Preznit Ever category that was a little hard to do, but even before that I don't remember them even trying.
Schools Getting Hammered
It was similar around the time I started college.
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - As the nation's economy spirals downward, America's colleges and universities are feeling the pain in multiple ways and must take steps now to adjust, said Pennsylvania State University president Graham B. Spanier.
States are cutting funding. Donors are pulling back. Students are having trouble getting loans, and so are colleges, causing a slowdown in building projects. Meanwhile, cash flows are tight and endowments are shrinking, Spanier said in an interview at his office on Friday.
Taxes
I'm really never quite sure who this "don't pay any taxes" stuff is aimed at. Though, thinking about it just this second, maybe I do. Basically everybody pays taxes. So you when you're talking about giving free money to people who don't pay any taxes, that must be somebody else because, you know, I pay taxes.
I suppose that works.
I suppose that works.
Looks Pretty Good
I've mostly resisted the temptation to spend my days staring at an electoral college calculator and state level polls, trying to figure out paths to victory. I've been thinking "he needs Kerry states plus a couple" and been aware enough of what those "couple" need to be. I broke down today and starting playing with one. It's preset with the 2004 results. In any case, I started playing around and realized that if polls are reasonably close to being accurate... Obama will win. Bowers provides actual useful information.
Pinata Politics
I think Steve's description of how the McCain campaign has operated is correct, but it's also one reason he's losing. The public can't digest that many narratives, and surrogates can't keep up either.
Stimulus
Schumer statement in my inbox:
This is correct. More than that, I bet that within 6 months or so help for the states isn't just going to be desirable, but absolutely necessary.
“Chairman Bernanke is saying what anyone who looks at the economy knows is obvious: we need to help not only Wall Street, but also Main Street. A second stimulus, particularly one that creates and preserves jobs by focusing on infrastructure and help for the states, is very much needed.”
This is correct. More than that, I bet that within 6 months or so help for the states isn't just going to be desirable, but absolutely necessary.
Hard To Contemplate
I've never been a fan of John McCain. I never had a mancrush on him as most of the "liberals" in the media once did. But there was a time not all that long ago when I thought that a McCain presidency would at least be a marginal improvement over the Bush presidency. Now I believe it would be much, much worse.
Frightening prospect.
Frightening prospect.
The Simpson Effect
I do so love the internets. Commenter PollieSigh at Swampland:
I believe in this election we will NOT see "The Bradley Effect". Instead, we will see what I call "The Simpson Effect", meaning, Obama will get elected simply because he is BLACK, in spite of the facts that he is "guilty" of being a Socialist, a liar, guilty of being in the MIDDLE of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debaucle that was responsible for the financial crisis, guilty taking in over $200,000 in illegal foreign donations, helping to campaign for and continuing a friendship with Prime Minister Raila Odinga who muscled his way into his position by encouraging his followers to commit mass genocide against the oppostion party, guilty of being pals with terrorists criminals, America haters and like Ayers , Rezco, Khalidi, Odinga, guilty of manipulating ACORN and encouraging voter fraud, guilty of running for President of the US when his Indonesion citizenship disqualifies him, GUILTY, GUILTY- but nobody cares because he is BLACK- just like OJ Simpson.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH
I'm guessing the home stretch McCain campaign whine will be that it's unfair that Barack Obama has so much money. This will likely resonate with the press, because they're stupid, and they'll compensate. Fortunately that compensation will largely involve giving more free media to McCain and Palin which will be of no help to their campaign.
There Are A Lot Of Places Like This
Where the economics of land prices have run smack into stupid zoning and land use policies.
Essentially these are the worst of both worlds kind of places, dense enough to have the unpleasant aspects of density but without the sensible land use policies which would allow the good effects of density to appear.
I'm not confident than many of them can be sensibly reshaped, but the ones which probably can be are the ones which are on a decent transit line. Access to mass transit reduces car dependency at least for some, as if someone in your household can use it to commute you can have one fewer car.
Rockville Pike between the NIH and downtown Rockville is an ugly mess of an edge city. Like Tysons, it has too much density to be truly car friendly, but all the ugliness of suburbia: strip malls set back behind acres of surface parking.
Essentially these are the worst of both worlds kind of places, dense enough to have the unpleasant aspects of density but without the sensible land use policies which would allow the good effects of density to appear.
I'm not confident than many of them can be sensibly reshaped, but the ones which probably can be are the ones which are on a decent transit line. Access to mass transit reduces car dependency at least for some, as if someone in your household can use it to commute you can have one fewer car.
Public Financing
While I think the logic of publius's post also suggests that public financing for less important federal offices might still be a good idea, I also find the Obama example to be a pretty good argument against the need and even desirability of publicly financed presidential elections.
15 Days
I've long been optimistic about this election, thinking that Barack Obama was likely, though not guaranteed, to win it. Obviously current polling confirms that view. Admittedly while I've long thought he would likely win, thinking it and believing it are not quite the same thing.
It's important to get ready for what's to come. In 2000, once the dust settled from the election, it was quite frightening to watch the press assume their roles as official courtiers and sycophants. After all of those years of contempt and disdain for Clinton, they welcomed the Bush administration with a gushing love which was truly surreal. Bush didn't get a 100 day honeymoon, he got one which lasted until 9/11... and then got a bit extended.
It won't be like that with Obama. The failed Obama presidency begins the day after the election. Just wait for it.
It's important to get ready for what's to come. In 2000, once the dust settled from the election, it was quite frightening to watch the press assume their roles as official courtiers and sycophants. After all of those years of contempt and disdain for Clinton, they welcomed the Bush administration with a gushing love which was truly surreal. Bush didn't get a 100 day honeymoon, he got one which lasted until 9/11... and then got a bit extended.
It won't be like that with Obama. The failed Obama presidency begins the day after the election. Just wait for it.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Contrast
Something I'm sure I knew, but didn't know, if that makes sense.
Powell and McCain are both in their early 70s.
Get Your Talking Points
Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan agree: Colin Powell and Barack Obama are black.
That's A Big Number
Galbraith:
His broader point is that fiscal expansion is necessary, that despite it being a big and scary number, people will be more than happy to lend the government money at very favorable rates so that it can do necessary things.
I was at the Peterson Institute the other day. There I heard a very good panel discussion of the financial crisis, featuring Fred Bergsten, Adam Posen, Morris Goldstein and others. All agreed that the deficit would exceed one trillion dollars next year. All agreed on the need for the expansionary and stabilizing steps outlined above. Nobody was defending, in any serious way, the Walker-Steuerle line.
I found this greatly encouraging.
His broader point is that fiscal expansion is necessary, that despite it being a big and scary number, people will be more than happy to lend the government money at very favorable rates so that it can do necessary things.
Mo Money
While McCain's real position is just "WAH OBAMA HAS MORE MONEY THAN ME IT'S NOT FAIR," what he's saying might get some play in the media. But given the current contribution limits, and the volume of donations, the idea that even a maxed out donor could exert financial influence over a candidate is pretty ludicrous. More than that, even large donation bundlers are being swamped by small donors. Obama solved the problem of the corrupting influence of money in politics by hauling in too much money, and doing so without corporate PAC money. It'd be pretty hard to raise enough money to get his attention because he's raised so much.
Just In Case It Wasn't Clear
I wasn't knocking living in small towns/rural areas, just pointing out that the location preferences of elite pundits usually don't include them. Vacation homes don't count.
And None Of Them Will Live There
I'd find it a bit weird though not especially bothersome if rural and small town people truly believed that they had unique claim on American authenticity, whatever the hell that means. They can nurture whatever pet conceits they want and they won't really impact me. But when it comes from the mouths and pens of elite pundits who for some reason are not inclined to reside in this precious real America it's really quite annoying. Given the magic of the internets and satellite hookups most of these people could join with their authentic brethren in, say, Fredonia, and live out their fantasy lives.
Core Values
I don't have any problem with hunting and fishing and can understand that for some people it's a big part of their identity, but isn't "core values" a bit much?
Todd Palin addressed a crowd of 75 fellow sportsmen at a gun club this morning as part of a three-event campaign swing through Pennsylvania.
The husband of the Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, told supporters that it is important to have a ticket that "supports our core values -- hunting and fishing." Mr. Palin, who is new to the campaign trail, spoke for only three minutes at the Pitcairn-Monroeville Sportmen's Club.
IT WAS A TIE!!!
New polling highlights the tremendous gap between what the pundits on teevee thought about the debates and what the public thought about them. Now I don't think the teevee pundits necessarily have to be perfect reflections of public thought all of the time. I'd be find if Chuck Todd or whoever just told me what he thought about the debate. But that's not what they do. They try to imagine what the great unwashed masses thought about the debate and then explain that to us. And they basically got it wrong every time. Perhaps remedial pundit school? Some new pundits? Something?
Convene SEVERAL Meetings
Did I say summit? I meant summits!
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The leaders of the U.S., France and the European Commission will ask other world leaders to join in a series of summits on the global financial crisis beginning in the U.S. soon after the Nov. 4 presidential election.
Powell Backs Obama
So sez MSNBC.
I think what little credibility Colin Powell had is in a little vial of white powder somewhere, and have no desire to help rehabilitate his image. Still such things are not aimed at me, but at that segment of the population for whom the recommendation of their first black friend might encourage them to get a second one.
I think what little credibility Colin Powell had is in a little vial of white powder somewhere, and have no desire to help rehabilitate his image. Still such things are not aimed at me, but at that segment of the population for whom the recommendation of their first black friend might encourage them to get a second one.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's "This Week" — Newt Gingrich, former GOP speaker of the House.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Virginia Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine; Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla.; Missouri Republican Gov. Matt Blunt; former Rep. Rob Portman, R-Ohio.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Former Secretary of State Colin Powell.
___
CNN's "Late Edition" — Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.; Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., House minority whip; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani; Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala.; Ed Lazear, chairman, White House Council on Economic Advisers.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
They're (almost) all "Democrats" now
I'm trying to remember if I've ever seen a split-decision endorsement before. Even the Republican ChiTrib and the neocon WaPo just endorsed Obama, after all.
PS. Mind you, this is a whole 'nother level of endorsement.
Signed,
Not Atrios
PS. Mind you, this is a whole 'nother level of endorsement.
Signed,
Not Atrios
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