Saturday, February 22, 2014
Still There
I failed in my quest to celebrate National Margarita Day (an ancient tradition obviously) as the bar was too full, but it was nice to see that the outside is still there. I have been somewhat of a shut in lately, mostly due to weather, so a nice day was very welcome.
Fear Of A Dem President
"Fiscal hawks" and inflation-phobes always appear when there's a president with a D after his name. I'm pretty sure the expectation of a Dem president was what was drove Fed inflation fears in 2008.
Friday, February 21, 2014
We Don't Use That Term Here
Dean makes a good point, that it's astonishing that so many people identify as "working class" given that it isn't actually a term people regularly use in this country.
Normal Will Return
The other thing our rulers did - even the good ones! - was assume that after a brief period of pain, everything would pretty much get back to normal. So we had pivot to the deficit, Recovery Summers, endless rounds of Green Shoots, etc. They're still doing that, basically, though I don't know how that imagined "normal" will return for people deeply in debt after years of underemployment, even if the job market and wages improve.
The People Who Rule Us
You can look elsewhere for people spending time parsing the just released 2008 Fed minutes, but, really, all we need to know is that the people in charge failed to see the crisis coming and their response to it was to give free money to the people who created it.
Lots Of People And Lots Of Cars
When they're essentially sharing the same spaces, then you need to think about how to deal with that.
One of the great amusing mysteries to me since I've lived here is how the powers that be are always wondering why Broad St. - the main central vehicle artery through the city - isn't some beautiful grand boulevard filled with people. The answer is rather simple. It's the main central vehicle artery through the city. It's never going to be that appealing to pedestrians as long as maximizing vehicle flow is high on the priority list.
The busiest intersections in Center City should probably have "Barnes Dance" pedestrian signals, basically stop all traffic at the intersection and let pedestrians cross every which way for a period, and then give the streets back the cars. The crush of people crossing the street with the light isn't compatible with the number of drivers trying to make turns.
One of the great amusing mysteries to me since I've lived here is how the powers that be are always wondering why Broad St. - the main central vehicle artery through the city - isn't some beautiful grand boulevard filled with people. The answer is rather simple. It's the main central vehicle artery through the city. It's never going to be that appealing to pedestrians as long as maximizing vehicle flow is high on the priority list.
The busiest intersections in Center City should probably have "Barnes Dance" pedestrian signals, basically stop all traffic at the intersection and let pedestrians cross every which way for a period, and then give the streets back the cars. The crush of people crossing the street with the light isn't compatible with the number of drivers trying to make turns.
Transparency
Back in the last millenium, David Brin wrote a book about a world with cameras everywhere and intrusive government and nosy corporations. We talked last night.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
What Do You Mean, 67?
The House of Cards writers are apparently unaware that the Social Security retirement age is already set to increase to 67. Quite often I wonder if many of our pundits are aware of that too. I'm too lazy too hunt down an example right now, but quite often people who suggest increasing the retirement age to, you know, SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY, talk about it as if that increase wasn't already in law. They might not come right out and say it, but it's implied.
Shouting And Screaming Is Part Of My Job
With chained-CPI dead (for now), it's worth addressing the eleventy-seven dimensional chess take of some Obama supporters, which is that it was never going to happen so shut up stupid firebaggers blah blah blah.
And, yeah, maybe that's even true. But we all have a role to play in this little dance, and my role, when horrible things are proposed, is to scream and shout about how horrible they are to a) minutely decrease probability of it happening and b) helping to make sure if there is some "grand bargain" involved it isn't complete shit.
I'm not totally unfamiliar with various people in the White House. As Brian Beutler writes
Why would they support it on the merits? Either they're just totally bad people, angling for Very Serious People seats in the Village, or they're wedded to the notion that somehow it makes sense for Dems to cut Social Security in a slightly less horrible way than Republicans instead of, you know, making the case that an extremely popular program just doesn't need to be cut and maximizing the political backlash against the bad guys who would try. In any case, there were genuine supporters of a horrible idea, people who would have supported doing it without a bargain.
And, yeah, maybe that's even true. But we all have a role to play in this little dance, and my role, when horrible things are proposed, is to scream and shout about how horrible they are to a) minutely decrease probability of it happening and b) helping to make sure if there is some "grand bargain" involved it isn't complete shit.
I'm not totally unfamiliar with various people in the White House. As Brian Beutler writes
One of the White House’s most poorly kept secrets is that many of Obama’s economic advisers support Chained CPI on the merits, or believe it to be the least-bad benefit cut Obama could offer Republicans
Why would they support it on the merits? Either they're just totally bad people, angling for Very Serious People seats in the Village, or they're wedded to the notion that somehow it makes sense for Dems to cut Social Security in a slightly less horrible way than Republicans instead of, you know, making the case that an extremely popular program just doesn't need to be cut and maximizing the political backlash against the bad guys who would try. In any case, there were genuine supporters of a horrible idea, people who would have supported doing it without a bargain.
Progress
In that standing still is better than going backwards.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House says President Barack Obama's upcoming budget proposal will not include his past offer to accept lowered cost-of-living increases in Social Security and other benefit programs.
Until 3 AM On Weekends
7 day 24 hour subway service has genuine obstacles (maintenance issues), but the only barrier to running later service a couple of nights per week is financial.
Message: I Care About Poverty
Apparently Mike Lee cares about the poor so much he wants them to suffer as much as possible.
It's not a war on poverty. It's a war on the poor.
The cause Lee believes will help build bridges among Republicans? Combating poverty.
...
But arguably none have been as committed to the cause in recent months as Lee, who declared a “war on poverty” last November.
...
Smith is even more scathing of another proposal contained in Lee’s bill: capping means-tested welfare spending at 2007 levels, a move the senator says will save $2.5tn. The reduction would be adjusted for inflation, phased in over three years, and only come into force when unemployment is below 6%.
But it still constitutes a dramatic reduction on government money spent on the poor – distorting a budget that ordinarily rises and falls depending on the performance of the economy. “It doesn’t make sense,” Smith said. “It can only hurt the most vulnerable people.”
It's not a war on poverty. It's a war on the poor.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
If Only Everyone Would Agree With Me About Everything We Could End Politics Forever
There are the grifters, too, of course but at least for the Friedman-esque "centrist" third party true believers, they just can't stand that they only get 99.99% of what they want.
This Won't End Well
Just can't see how anyone thought this was a good idea.
Rents collected on the collateral for the first U.S. rental-home securities declined by 7.6 percent from October to January, according to Morningstar Inc.
Even In The Urban Hellhole
Not that I support it, but I get that in places where few people walk, sidewalk clearing isn't a priority, but here in the urban hellhole, everybody walks. I don't mean that nobody drives, or takes the bus, but for the most part people aren't being dumped doorfront out of their vehicles. Even people who drive everywhere end up walking for a bit.
People and businesses are responsible for clearing their sidewalks. Even if 80% of people are "good neighbors," that leaves quite a few stretches of icy sidewalk. In theory there's a fine for noncompliance, but it's rarely levied. And with plenty of abandoned buildings and vacant lots, that fine isn't too likely to reach the owner.
Usually I'm a good neighbor, though the shortage of ice melting chemicals has made that a bit harder. Without salt, a melt and freeze means a solid sheet that's difficult to shovel.
People and businesses are responsible for clearing their sidewalks. Even if 80% of people are "good neighbors," that leaves quite a few stretches of icy sidewalk. In theory there's a fine for noncompliance, but it's rarely levied. And with plenty of abandoned buildings and vacant lots, that fine isn't too likely to reach the owner.
Usually I'm a good neighbor, though the shortage of ice melting chemicals has made that a bit harder. Without salt, a melt and freeze means a solid sheet that's difficult to shovel.
Light Snow
I think most of the commenters here miss point of the sneckdown. It isn't to "prove" that all of these places don't need to be roads, it's merely a way of illustrating potentially unused road spaces. A hint, not a proof.
Having said that, I do think the concept only works well for relatively light snow, the amount of snow that most drivers wouldn't think twice about driving over. Big piles of snow are of course going to be seen as an obstacle, something to avoid, while an undriven area with just a bit more than a dusting can genuinely tell us places that drivers might not be using at all.
Having said that, I do think the concept only works well for relatively light snow, the amount of snow that most drivers wouldn't think twice about driving over. Big piles of snow are of course going to be seen as an obstacle, something to avoid, while an undriven area with just a bit more than a dusting can genuinely tell us places that drivers might not be using at all.
We Tried To Warn Them
But, no...
They can steal your homes, basically.
Shoddy paperwork, erroneous fees and wrongful evictions — the same abuses that dogged the nation’s largest banks and led to a $26 billion settlement with federal authorities in 2012 — are now cropping up among the specialty firms that collect mortgage payments, according to dozens of foreclosure lawsuits and interviews with borrowers, federal and state regulators and housing lawyers.
These companies are known as servicers, but they do far more than transfer payments from borrowers to lenders. They have great power in deciding whether homeowners can win a mortgage modification or must hand over their home in a foreclosure.
They can steal your homes, basically.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Ya Think
Just heard a report on NPR in which some supergeniuses have figured out that the combination of flat wages for college graduates and ever increasing student debt might have a wee impact on the number of first time home buyers.
Not really picking on NPR. There wasn't really anything wrong with it. Just, you know, nobody could have predicted...
Not really picking on NPR. There wasn't really anything wrong with it. Just, you know, nobody could have predicted...
OBEY
Obviously it isn't true of all parents, but for some it seems that obedience - and physical enforcement of that obedience - is an end in itself.
Six Times Nine
Shoveled the sidewalk, changed the cat litter box. So far a banner day. #crankyjohncolepost
Going Backwards
I really don't understand the bits of our society in which rape is ok and consensual sex is not.
Don't Know How They Do It
It isn't too weird to eat at 9pm in Barcelona, but in Madrid even showing up at 10 is like showing up for the early bird special. I'm used to staying up late as I don't have kids, I don't have a commute, and within some boundaries can set my own hours. If I sleep in one day I don't get fired. But I've spent quite a bit of time in Spain and I really never have figured out how people with "normal" lives (kids, jobs, not tourists) get enough sleep (and, no, nobody really takes a midday nap).
Monday, February 17, 2014
Self-Regulation
It's all the rage.
So why did government policy change? I've tried asking the environment department: they're as much use as a paper sandbag. But I've found a clue. The farm regulation task force demanded a specific change: all soil protection rules attached to farm subsidies should become voluntary. They should be downgraded from a legal condition to an "advisory feature". Even if farmers do nothing to protect their soil, they should still be eligible for public money.
You might have entertained the naive belief that in handing out billions to wealthy landowners we would get something in return. Something other than endless whining from the National Farmers' Union. But so successfully has policy been captured in this country that Defra – which used to stand for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – now means Doing Everything Farmers' Representatives Ask. We pay £3.6bn a year for the privilege of having our wildlife exterminated, our hills grazed bare, our rivers polluted and our sitting rooms flooded.
The Wage Is Too Damn Low
This isn't in response to anything in particular, but I continue to be amazed at how oblivious many olds (defined as anyone who is older than me, of course) are to the fact that The Kids Today have it really freaking hard. You know, the "I worked my way through college why can't you" crowd.
Public higher education used to be cheap. It isn't anymore. This means people who supposedly do the right thing and get that education are 20 grand in debt (or more, of course) at age 22, at which point they can go work for free for awhile to get "exposure" to hopefully land a job paying $38K ($13,500 in 1980 money) and somehow pay off their student debt, save for a downpayment, get hitched and have kids, and buy a house.
The math doesn't add up. I increasingly do think nominal illusion is part of it, as, say, $50,000 sounds like A LOT OF MONEY for a starting job for the older generation, but in 2014 it isn't that much money.
Public higher education used to be cheap. It isn't anymore. This means people who supposedly do the right thing and get that education are 20 grand in debt (or more, of course) at age 22, at which point they can go work for free for awhile to get "exposure" to hopefully land a job paying $38K ($13,500 in 1980 money) and somehow pay off their student debt, save for a downpayment, get hitched and have kids, and buy a house.
The math doesn't add up. I increasingly do think nominal illusion is part of it, as, say, $50,000 sounds like A LOT OF MONEY for a starting job for the older generation, but in 2014 it isn't that much money.
A Week In The Life Of The Fix
I wonder if he's even aware.
Named politicians:
Boehner, McConnell, Cruz, Boehner, Rubio, Boehner, Paul, McConnell.
Named politicians:
Boehner, McConnell, Cruz, Boehner, Rubio, Boehner, Paul, McConnell.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Life Among The Econ
I made this point on the twitters, but in case I don't get inspired to write the longer post (I'm lazy, it's a holiday tomorrow, etc.) I'll do the shorter version here, too. Everybody thinks they understand "economics" and therefore they think they understand what academic economists do all day because the language of Econ 101 (freshman undergraduate economics) dominates our discourse about current events. But people really have no idea what academic economists do (for better or for worse) to get published in academic journals. Here's a relatively simple and fairly typical snippet:
Whatever the merits, it isn't jargon free or accessible to outsiders.
Whatever the merits, it isn't jargon free or accessible to outsiders.
Where Does That Highway Go
Aside from "lifestyles of the not quite rich enough," the journalism genre of "ZOMG THERE ARE DRUGS IN DEM DER SUBURBS"* is probably by least favorite.
Also, too, there are drugs in dem der Wall Street.
*Yes, Staten Island technically part of NYC, but it's the burbs.
Also, too, there are drugs in dem der Wall Street.
*Yes, Staten Island technically part of NYC, but it's the burbs.
Citizens Of The World
I'm oddly more sanguine about the dismantling of campaign finance laws than some, but, yes, Citizens United does make it easy for rich foreigners to influence our elections, too.
The View From Above
There's a lot that's smart in this. I'd add a few things but it's Sunday and I have a dinner party to prepare for and, also, too, lazy, so just go read.
In Which Our Ross Has An Epiphany
A no Douthat linking policy here, but shorter Ross:
I have recently realized that when rich parents like me tell our rich childless friends how much suffering our children cause us, it might just work against my general desire for everybody to be just like me and have children.
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