Special request from Matt.
Continue rocking.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Giving Credit
Had lost where the alien pony came from, here it is.
You can buy that and more stuff here.
Artist's site.
You can buy that and more stuff here.
Artist's site.
Everything's Going To Be OK
Stock market went up today, so ignore all that crap I said recently about the economy being crappy. It's all good.
Deficit Hawks Don't Care About The Deficit
So I get an email announcing that Kerry's energy bill reduces the deficit by some rounding error over the next 10 years according to the CBO. It depressed me because it made me realize Kerry and his people actually think deficit hawks genuinely care about the deficit. More than that, this piece of information won't even stop them from claiming that the bill "costs too much" or whatever.
People may oppose the bill for a variety of reasons, including simply a desire for this Congress to achieve nothing, but caring about the deficit is not one of them no matter what they say.
People may oppose the bill for a variety of reasons, including simply a desire for this Congress to achieve nothing, but caring about the deficit is not one of them no matter what they say.
Completely Confusing Mysteries
To many of our elites it is very confusing why businesses with excess capacity aren't investing.
Our elites is stoopid.
Our elites is stoopid.
Missed Opportunities
The stretch of I-95 that runs through Philly and largely cuts the city off from the waterfront needs to be redone soon, and sadly it looks like they're not going to take the opportunity to do something different with it. Increasingly I lean towards "just knock them damn thing down," though I don't think there's any way that's a realistic option.
Fake Scandals
We're getting a small taste of what will happen if Republicans get subpoena power. Endless fake scandals will bubble up through the right wing puke funnel, promoted by Drudge, covered in a willfully ignorant way by the mainstream media, etc.
The Right's been off their game for awhile, but they're starting to come back a bit.
The Right's been off their game for awhile, but they're starting to come back a bit.
The Quiet Leafy Suburb
Something that has happened in recent decades is the development of a lot of places which are too dense but not dense enough, that is they become dense enough to have a lot of the downsides (such as extreme traffic congestion) of density, without being developed in such a way that the benefits of density (such as walkability) can be realized. Some places are more positioned than others to transition to a better state, with some tweaking of development codes, but some are likely to be stuck.
A few weeks ago I was driving around in burbs I remembered from when I was a teenager, only they weren't the same. This was... not an older suburb, but not a newer one either, probably a place which had its initial development boom in 60s-70s. The traffic was... incredible. Back when I was younger it was the archetypal quiet leafy suburb, but increased development in the area plus the fact that the area was increasingly a conduit to major highways without really having the roads to support such a role had really changed the place.
A few weeks ago I was driving around in burbs I remembered from when I was a teenager, only they weren't the same. This was... not an older suburb, but not a newer one either, probably a place which had its initial development boom in 60s-70s. The traffic was... incredible. Back when I was younger it was the archetypal quiet leafy suburb, but increased development in the area plus the fact that the area was increasingly a conduit to major highways without really having the roads to support such a role had really changed the place.
Class Barriers
The persistence of the unpaid internship in so many elite areas of life has done a lot to perpetuate class barriers and ensure that only the right sorts of folk obtain certain positions in society. Almost as if by design, really. Personally I was never aware of a whole range of opportunities potentially available to me at that age because it never occurred to me that taking an unpaid internship was a realistic thing to do. Because, you know, it wasn't.
The Fix Is In
Reading the tea leaves, I gather that trying to increase the social security retirement age is pretty much a given. Odd, really, that politicians don't realize that the phrase "raising the retirement age" causes spitting fits for everyone regardless of party affiliation.
Also, Charles Krauthammer Gets Excited When Brown People Die
But some filters really require neon disclaimers.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
plus ça change
No deep thoughts for the late night, just occasionally look back and marvel at how much things have changed and yet... how much they haven't.
Apocalypse Now
I'm sure future historians will recognize THE TRUTH, that there are actually plenty of jobs and lots of lazy people, and will name this era The Great Shirk, or The Long Time Of Funemployment, or something similar. But meanwhile, people are still losing their homes.
Fifty-six percent of all home sales in Riverside County in the first three months of the year involved foreclosure or bank- owned properties, according to RealtyTrac, an online service that monitors distressed property.
US Public Health Spending
A point which is not made often enough, though I have made it, is that not only does the US spend a stupid amount of money in total on health care, we also beat a lot of countries in the amount of public money spent on health care (bottom graph).
Not sure we get a lot for that money, but we spend it.
Not sure we get a lot for that money, but we spend it.
Plan B
The administration is not big on Plan B, and while they occasionally admit error they seem to do it without actually changing direction.
I think they genuinely believed the economy was turning around this winter despite the fact that signs of that were paltry at best.
I think they genuinely believed the economy was turning around this winter despite the fact that signs of that were paltry at best.
Job Fair In A Box
This sounds like an especially bad idea. People who show up to town meetings because they're concerned about jobs are going to be the people who, you know, don't have any goddamn jobs.
False Choices
I generally don't bother to engage Kotkin, but there is no stark choice between suburban and urban* and urban living does not equal condo in a skyscraper. More than that, there are a variety of preferences out there and it's dumb to read polls on issues like this in the way he does. There is no one way.
Anyway, for the billionth time, the urban hellhole revolution I promote does involve improving certain elements of infrastructure and it also involves getting rid of the creeping suburbanization policies which make urban hellholes difficult to build even in urban hellholes, but for all of you suburb lovers it just involves reducing some of the worst elements of recent suburban design by removing policies which mandate those elements. Nice, walkable, if still largely car-centric, neighborhoods with good transit links are desirable and command a premium in many areas, and they're still suburbia. You can keep your car, and your kids can walk to the playground and when they get older take the train to the urban hellhole where they can get up to no good as is expected.
*Yes, DWD, I know there are rural places too, but the land use, transportation, and zoning issues aren't especially interesting or complicated in places with lots of empty space.
Anyway, for the billionth time, the urban hellhole revolution I promote does involve improving certain elements of infrastructure and it also involves getting rid of the creeping suburbanization policies which make urban hellholes difficult to build even in urban hellholes, but for all of you suburb lovers it just involves reducing some of the worst elements of recent suburban design by removing policies which mandate those elements. Nice, walkable, if still largely car-centric, neighborhoods with good transit links are desirable and command a premium in many areas, and they're still suburbia. You can keep your car, and your kids can walk to the playground and when they get older take the train to the urban hellhole where they can get up to no good as is expected.
*Yes, DWD, I know there are rural places too, but the land use, transportation, and zoning issues aren't especially interesting or complicated in places with lots of empty space.
Eschaton Assignment Desk
Perhaps some enterprising reporter could look into the case of the missing Social Security Trustees report.
Make Some Noise
One of the mysteries to me is why state lawmakers with budget and unemployment problems aren't putting more pressure on federal officeholders to do more. I guess the answer is that they just don't have any real influence over them.
Remember That Foreclosure Crisis, A Lovely Thing Of The Past
Actually not a thing of the past. People withhout jobs or unemployment benefits can't pay their mortgages.
The big myth is the crisis was "averted" because the financial system was "saved." The reality is that they saved the banksters, but left the unemployment and foreclosures crises in place.
As Philadelphia economist Kevin Gillen sees it, "The recession that started with the bursting of the housing bubble has come full circle.
"Whereas housing led us into the recession, the recession is now leading housing."
The big myth is the crisis was "averted" because the financial system was "saved." The reality is that they saved the banksters, but left the unemployment and foreclosures crises in place.
Truly Depressing
Krgthulu.
I have no idea why any sentient people think this makes any sense. Businesses have no incentive to invest if they have slack demand and are producing under capacity. The only reason businesses would care what government was doing is if government borrowing was causing interest rates to spike which, you know, isn't happening. We're getting into underpants gnome territory.
I was on Good Morning America this not-so-good morning, doing what I could. But I was struck by something that George Stephanopoulos said: he claimed to have been speaking to an administration official who asserted that what we need to get businesses investing is for business to know that the government has stopped — presumably, that means no new spending, no new regulation, whatever.
I have no idea why any sentient people think this makes any sense. Businesses have no incentive to invest if they have slack demand and are producing under capacity. The only reason businesses would care what government was doing is if government borrowing was causing interest rates to spike which, you know, isn't happening. We're getting into underpants gnome territory.
I SEE THE FUTURE
Depressingly, the script for the autumn is already easy to see. Dems will lose seats, in part because it was inevitable and in part because the economy sucks completely. All the very serious people will tell us that Obama "overreached" and was this crazy marxist hippie, and if only he'd be "center right" like the country supposedly is then Dems would be popular again.
They should unveil a major new jobs plan like today, and then spend the next few months talking about it nonstop even if they can't pass it. I have no sense that there's anything like that in the pipeline.
They should unveil a major new jobs plan like today, and then spend the next few months talking about it nonstop even if they can't pass it. I have no sense that there's anything like that in the pipeline.
heckuva job
Nobody could have predicted, yada yada...
In the 77 days since oil from the ruptured Deepwater Horizon began to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, BP has skimmed or burned about 60 percent of the amount it promised regulators it could remove in a single day.
Morning
It's now official. Reporters and photographers going pretty much anywhere BP doesn't want them can face criminal charges and/or fines of up to $40,000. While the big news corporations may be willing to bring it to court, this new rule will certainly stifle smaller, independent news outfits that don't have deep pockets. So much for that freedom of the press thingy.
Monday, July 05, 2010
I Don't Know What They're Thinking
This level of unemployment is not ok. Maybe it's time for Jared Bernstein to resign and tell us.
Fresh Thread
Sadly the urban hellhole rooftop does not have good views of either of the main fireworks locations due to various buildings being in the way, but fortunately some people in the neighborhood were putting on a show of their own.
Straight Lines
The administration doesn't have super powers and I certainly don't fault them for things they truly did inherit, but either they believe they've done all that they can do or they don't. If there's more that they can do, whether or not President Snowe agrees, they should make the case. Loudly. Continuously.
Even More Depressing
Important people in the White House waste valuable time giving a shit what David Brooks thinks.
In a world where there were archetypal Republicans who could be influenced by the archetypal David Brooks (as opposed to the real one, who really is a conservative hack with a fake reasonable face), this might make sense. But we do not live in a world with Republican senators who give a shit what David Brooks thinks.
Times are tough for the president, too—which isn’t a coincidence. It sometimes seems as if Barack Obama and David Brooks share the same rational, unflappable DNA. Every Monday and Thursday, as his deadline approaches, Brooks gets a call from someone in the White House—“I’m not going to say who,” he says, which means Rahm—asking if tomorrow is going to be a good day.
In a world where there were archetypal Republicans who could be influenced by the archetypal David Brooks (as opposed to the real one, who really is a conservative hack with a fake reasonable face), this might make sense. But we do not live in a world with Republican senators who give a shit what David Brooks thinks.
Depressed
Our elites are populated with significant numbers of people who truly believe that the biggest problem this country faces is that poor people have it a bit too good.
It's all very depressing.
It's all very depressing.
Confusion
None of these things trouble readers, they trouble reporters and editors who are upset that the well-established pecking order is being dismantled.
The Catfood Commission
I go back and forth on whether it's truly a danger. It's hard to imagine them coming up with something that would actually achieve their stated goals while getting Republican support. Still it's important to keep our collective eye on it, and remember that come December there may be a big fight...
Nothing Creates Confidence Like A Deep Recession
I guess it's comforting in some weird way that global elites are as awful as ours are.
Paying Bills
This is from a couple of days ago, but highlights what happens when a state stops paying its bills. People lose jobs, businesses go under, etc...
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Happy Hour Thread
One day we'll find the right strategy to complete the mission, just as soon as we figure out what the mission is.
The Liars Who Rule Us
Catfood commission takes to Parade:
So they're only going to cut it for people under 58. The system can sustain itself, if current projects are correct, by paying promised benefits out in full until 2036 and then could pay 76% of scheduled benefits after that.
The catfood commission is not about "saving social security," it's about stealing from a regressive tax so that rich people don't have to pay more in taxes.
Are you willing to recommend cuts to Social Security?
SIMPSON: We’re not going to cut Social Security—we’re going to stabilize it. None of the ideas that have been presented will affect anyone over age 58. But we’re going to make the system work. As it is, it can’t sustain itself.
So they're only going to cut it for people under 58. The system can sustain itself, if current projects are correct, by paying promised benefits out in full until 2036 and then could pay 76% of scheduled benefits after that.
The catfood commission is not about "saving social security," it's about stealing from a regressive tax so that rich people don't have to pay more in taxes.
Just Like Toothpaste
Heckuva job.
Don't know why so many politicians think that denying reality is a plan.
Just weeks ago, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour claimed that oil was not a big threat to the people of the Gulf Coast. Now, with oil hitting his state's beaches for the first time since the start of the BP spill, the Republican governor says his state isn't prepared for the spill and needs more help.
Don't know why so many politicians think that denying reality is a plan.
Sunday Bobbleheads
It must be wanker sweeps week!
Face the Nation has an EXCLUSIVE with Lindsey Graham.
This Week has an EXCLUSIVE with President John McCain.
Fox News Sunday has Joe Lieberman and Jim DeMint.
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Wimbledon.
Face the Nation has an EXCLUSIVE with Lindsey Graham.
This Week has an EXCLUSIVE with President John McCain.
Fox News Sunday has Joe Lieberman and Jim DeMint.
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Wimbledon.
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Tales From A Crappy Economy
Nothing to add, just that New Rivers was my favorite restaurant when I lived in Providence and could, very occasionally, afford such a thing on a grad student salary (or the credit card that came with it). Wish them well.
Infrastructure Spending!
What a complete fucking disaster.
The American reconstruction authorities decided, however, that the first big rebuilding project to win hearts and minds would be a citywide sewage treatment system.
Now, after more than six years of work, $104 million spent, and without having connected a single house, American reconstruction officials have decided to leave the system unfinished, though they portray it as a success. It is just one element in a strategy to complete or abandon rebuilding projects before American troops leave in large numbers over the next year.
Depressing
This Times article is very depressing. The political guys are totally schizophrenic about jobs vs. deficit.
The public doesn't give a shit about deficits. They give a shit about their fucking jobs. Give them some.
The public doesn't give a shit about deficits. They give a shit about their fucking jobs. Give them some.
Morning and Shit
So it turns out that Tea Partiers and Conservative Republicans are one and the same. Who knew?
Friday, July 02, 2010
The Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Just Around The Corner
I take no pleasure in being proved fucking right (and, who knows, things could change), but it seems economy pessimists are currently winning. I don't expect that my mighty blogs will really change the world, but I have for some time been saying that more needs to be done. At this point it seems the administration is more wedded to pretending things are ok, if not good enough, than screaming that things are awful and trying to do something about it. Yes constrained by Congress, yada yada, but they could at least make the case. Who knows, maybe charismatic politicians can sway a few votes, even in the Senate.
....epic FAIL.
....epic FAIL.
They Shouldn't Be In Charge Of The Cleanup
BP's interests are not aligned with the public good, and there's no mechanism for forcing them to be.
BILOXI, Miss. — From Washington to the Gulf, politicians and residents wonder why so few skimming vessels have been put to work soaking up oil from the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe.
...
“By sinking and dispersing the oil, BP can amortize the cost of the cleanup over the next 15 years or so, as tar balls continue to roll up on the beaches, rather than dealing with the issue now by removing the oil from the water with the proper equipment,” McCallister testified earlier this week before the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. “As a financial adviser, I understand financial engineering and BP’s desire to stretch out its costs of remediating the oil spill in the Gulf. By managing the cleanup over a period of many years, BP is able to minimize the financial damage as opposed to a huge expenditure in a period of a few years.”
Tune Changing
I wonder if any level of economic disaster will cause the BIG GOVERNMENT IS DESTROYING THE ECONOMY crowd to start suggesting that maybe a bit more stimulus would be a good idea...
If You Go To Phoenix Someone Will Slit Your Throat
Someone made this point recently (sorry, forget who, information overload), that even in-state proponents of the horrible Arizona anti-brown people law like to portray their country as a crime-filled hellhole in order to justify the law. Way to make your state appealing!
Abundance Of Caution
While I certainly don't know all the details, I gather that from the beginning the White House was greatly concerned with both the reality and politics of stimulus money being "wasted," as in spent on things that Republicans could, rightly or wrongly, criticize. This was a valid concern, but another valid concern is... that it's July 2010, unemployment is at 9.5% and is only that "low" because so many people left the labor force. They should have put more emphasis on shoveling money out the door faster.
Very, Very Modest
The consequences of this disaster are going to be immense.
BAYOU LA BATRE, Ala. -- Alabama Conservation Commissioner Barnett Lawley says officials have found oil on the seabed just off the state's coast, confirming fears that the Gulf oil spill could be doing more damage than is readily apparent from the surface.
Barnett said Thursday that nets used by the state to determine what's on the bottom pulled up submerged oil and shrimp as recently as last week.
I Don't Think It Makes Political Sense
At some point the disconnect between happy talk and reality makes you seem a wee bit out of touch.
THIRTY ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS PER YEAR
Lovely article in the New York Times about how companies would love to hire people, but they're all too stupid. Perhaps the problem is you want highly skilled workers but you want to pay them crap, or you aren't willing to pay to train them.
Here in this suburb of Cleveland, supervisors at Ben Venue Laboratories, a contract drug maker for pharmaceutical companies, have reviewed 3,600 job applications this year and found only 47 people to hire at $13 to $15 an hour, or about $31,000 a year.
Jobs
-125K, unemployment at 9.5%...
...+83K private-sector jobs.
...unemployment drop due to shrinking labor force/participation rate. I'm so old I can remember when Larry Summers told me the increase in unemployment was good news because it reflected an increasing labor force due to people getting excited about the newly awesome economy.
...+83K private-sector jobs.
...unemployment drop due to shrinking labor force/participation rate. I'm so old I can remember when Larry Summers told me the increase in unemployment was good news because it reflected an increasing labor force due to people getting excited about the newly awesome economy.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
Making Me Cranky
Dems might pull off what even George Bush couldn't do.
The triumph of the catfood commission.
BREAKING: WHILE FUNDING THE WAR, LET'S LAY WASTE TO THE NEW DEAL WHILE WE'RE AT IT - In the House summary of the rule that governs tonight's war-funding vote is this gem: "Commits the House to vote on any Senate-passed recommendations of the bipartisan Fiscal Commission and that net savings from any Commission recommendations will go to deficit reduction."
The triumph of the catfood commission.
Looking For Bad News
As I've written before, I have no desire to destroy the Village to save it, and I have no desire for a single more person to be without a job. But the number that comes out tomorrow is just an estimate, and all estimates are imperfect. I'm not confident that anything will spur elites to do more, but the best chance we have is bad news, or a bad estimate of the actual news. The reality should be bad enough, but for some reason it isn't.
Jobs
Monthly jobs report comes out tomorrow. Forecast is -100K. I'll go with the under, predicting greater job losses.
The Bond Vigilantes Are Coming! The Bond Vigilantes Are Coming!
At 2.9%, it's irresponsible not to borrow.
Helicopter Drop
Bernanke could have sent money from the Fed's magic money machine in all kinds of ways. They could have paid down mortgages. They could have put money in my bank account. They could have given it to state governments. What they did was prop up a failed banking system, and the worst failures of the failed banking system, under the premise that capital misallocating financial intermediaries were necessary for a stable economy.
It's one way to do things.
It's one way to do things.
Ground Level Retail
I don't know this spot (or at least can't remember at the moment), but hopefully they do go ahead with adding ground level retail. A lot of central cities are plagued with many large civic buildings which lack it, creating major urban dead zones especially at night.
They Could Have Shored Up My Balance Sheet Too
But Fed charity is only for the banksters.
In very simple terms, what the Fed did was say, "What? You say you lost all your money gambling? Well, let us replace it for you. Go have some more fun at the craps table!"
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.” They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.
...
“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks and is only now discovering their true value, or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in an e-mail when informed about the credit quality of holdings in the Maiden Lane LLC portfolio. The committee held the April 3 hearing.
In very simple terms, what the Fed did was say, "What? You say you lost all your money gambling? Well, let us replace it for you. Go have some more fun at the craps table!"
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Greenspan sticking with it.
I was calling it a game of Jenga back in 12/07. Just saying.
In the far ranging interview, Greenspan said that raising the capital gains tax in the US would be ill advised. He also added that the financial crisis could not have been foreseen.
“It is just not feasible to forecast a financial crisis,” he said. “A financial crisis by definition is a sharp abrupt, unexpected decline in asset prices.”
I was calling it a game of Jenga back in 12/07. Just saying.
Protecting The Powerful
I think there's a bit of truth in the idea that reporters shouldn't run with every single quote just because it might be damaging, though it's not because I think powerful people need to be protected. It's more that there are things which will obviously make news even though they aren't really news worthy. An obvious example would be, say, candidate Obama saying (horrors!) the word fuck and being overheard by a reporter. Yes it would make news because Politico would win the morning noon and night with it, but it would be idiotic as a piece of news. So, yes, reporters should use some judgment about when comments are genuinely newsworthy, but not because those they cover need to be protected.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still high. Surprise!
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 472,000 in the week ended June 26, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to slip to 452,000 from the previously reported 457,000, which was revised slightly up to 459,000 in Thursday's report.
Exceptionally Mediocre
There was a significant amount of money allocated both directly to industry (well, via grants) and to research institutions in the stimulus last year, but looking at the pace of deployment in other countries should embarrass quite a few people in DC. It's even more shameful when you compare our insolation with that of Germany, Italy, or Japan.
I mean, as long as we're looking* for things to throw money at, there are plenty of places in PV to throw it. Maybe we could even begin to approach the total installed capacity of countries significantly smaller and less solar resource rich than us?
*I know, I know. Nobody in a position to do anything about it is actually looking.
I mean, as long as we're looking* for things to throw money at, there are plenty of places in PV to throw it. Maybe we could even begin to approach the total installed capacity of countries significantly smaller and less solar resource rich than us?
*I know, I know. Nobody in a position to do anything about it is actually looking.
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