Saturday, September 17, 2016
The Wall
In generational all the fretting about "demographic time bombs" that I've been reading about for 30 years have just been one more piece of ammunition in the "we need to gut retirement benefits" movements, even if there was no logic to this. And nationally there is no logic to this. But locally, it can be a bit of a problem, especially given our federal system, if you have an ageing problem not being replaced by younger ones, especially if your crackpot governor isn't exactly lowering the drawbridge.
Friday, September 16, 2016
Only Spongebob Can Save Us Now
What's more likely, real self-driving cars in my lifetime or the American Dream actually opening?
A giant empty husk will serve as a great metaphor. Future archeologists will think it's a massive piece of art.
A giant empty husk will serve as a great metaphor. Future archeologists will think it's a massive piece of art.
Have You Not Been Paying Attention?
There's nothing wrong with Apple products until they quietly put out a fix for what wasn't really a problem unless the fix is too expensive in which case you are out of luck.
Also they make iTunes.
“The thing I’m really surprised at is that as much as Apple has worked on its brand image with customers, that it would allow this significant, widespread problem to be going on and not say a word.”
Also they make iTunes.
Is Voting For A Third Party Stupider Than Voting For Trump?
Contra Drum, the point of this wasn't that there's generational warfare and people are mean to the Kids which is nothing new so stop bringing it up and besides both sides do it, the point is that by the stated (implied at least) measure of judgment, The Kids Today are far superior to every other generation including the generation of the person making the comment. Do polls show The Kids Today will vote for Hillary Clinton? Yes. Damn kids today are voting for third parties and if Clinton loses it'll be all their fault!!!
I get that the olds always hate on the young. There is nothing new under the sun, as us old people are prone to say. But this kind of comment would be like saying "young people need to get more STEM degrees like my generation did!" after looking at data showing young people are actually getting record numbers/proportions of STEM degrees (made up example, also the STEM degree shortage has always been a myth so shut up about that too). It isn't just blasting the youngs for being youngs, it's blasting them for not living up to the arbitrary standards you set for them despite the fact that they actually lived up to them as is shown in the thing you just linked to.
In general in this election season there's been a lot of "the young people suck, why won't those idiots vote for us???" First, they will vote for you. Second, I'm not sure your campaign outreach is going to help that very much. But you'll be smug on the internet, which is almost as important as being right on the internet.
Nothing to See Here
Move along, folks.
A grim new study led by a UCLA geography professor revealed that the current 5-year drought in California could last indefinitely, with the resulting arid conditions becoming "the new normal" for the state.
Morning Thread
Echidne is back from vacation and she has something to say about the recent polls. Good and bad news.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
The Kids Today
About sums it up.
You kids really need to get your damned asses off of @MotherJones's lawn. pic.twitter.com/JpGnVof6Bq
— Billmon (@billmon1) September 15, 2016
@ClaraJeffery IN THE SAME POLL
— joftius (@joftius) September 15, 2016
Under 30: 48% HRC to 29% Trump
Clara's age group: 46% HRC to 48% Trump
Personal Responsibility
It's one of those things that frames any discussion of public policy in our glorious era of late capitalism. It comes up especially in discussions of retirement issues, but in plenty of other areas as well. Though it's randomly applied without any sort of consistency, expect of course to apply the concept extra hard to poorer people. I'm not especially sure why I should be responsible for making sure I have enough money saved up for retirement in order to not be homeless, but I'm not responsible for fixing the potholes (or hiring someone to fix the potholes) on my city street. The point is that there are some things that public collective action does well, or can do well, such as the provision of certain public services and goods and certain kinds of insurance. Having government do stuff doesn't remove my "personal responsibility" any more than having someone else manufacture my washing machine does. These are arbitrary distinctions. Except for defense contractors, no one is a complete government moocher in our society in any case. Pretty sure working most of my adult life and paying taxes as required shows a reasonable amount of personal responsibility. If the goal is to make sure most people of retirement age can be reasonably assured that they won't live a life of misery and poverty, and a program like Social Security is the best way to do that, then what the hell does personal responsibility have to do with it?
Pretty Simple Formula
They built a ballpark and didn't surround it with acres of parking lot. These things aren't that complicated. Get 20,000-40,000 people showing up to 80+ home games per year, easy enough to be a quick after work diversion, and you create a lot of foot traffic by people looking for something to do before/after the game.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Anecdote!
In 2008, Obummer was everywhere. Not the man himself, of course, but signs of his campaign. I'm talking about in my little corner of the world, which is representative of nowhere other than my little corner of the world. I don't notice the physical presence of the Clinton campaign here, though maybe it is just a little bit early still. I don't notice the Trump campaign, either, but that's to be expected.
I draw no conclusions from this observation. Clinton isn't going to lose PA.
I draw no conclusions from this observation. Clinton isn't going to lose PA.
But
Perhaps stop calling them self-driving then?
The technology is neat, but unless you get to 100% it just isn't more than neat, and it certainly won't do a damn thing for car services like Uber. Segways are neat, too.
Uber provided ride-alongs to reporters on Tuesday. During a ride of about one hour, Reuters observed the Uber car safely - and for the most part smoothly - stop at red lights and accelerate at green lights, travel over a bridge, move around a mail truck and slow for a driver opening a car door on a busy street. All without a person touching the controls.
But the Uber driver and the engineer in the front two seats did intervene every few miles.
The technology is neat, but unless you get to 100% it just isn't more than neat, and it certainly won't do a damn thing for car services like Uber. Segways are neat, too.
Show Up, Enroll, Drop Your Kid Off
Sometimes I wonder if the people who make policy in the country have ever dealt with the cable company. I'm not even picking on the cable company, just a useful symbol. Anything that helps people is progress, I guess, but people working two jobs and who might not have stable housing (I don't even mean potentially homeless, just people who move) shouldn't have to worry about income eligibility and form filling and record keeping and finding a new provider and jumping through all the steps again if they move blahblahblah for every single government program they interact with. Not everything can be simple, but pay skilled people to do the complex stuff so the rest of us don't have to worry about it.
The Kids Today joke about "adulting" - actually taking the time to take care of all of the random shit they need to take care of in the adult sphere instead of taking their brunch selfies. I suspect that "adulting" is more time consuming than it used to be, that the need to check all the boxes and return the forms and return those confirmation calls fills more hours of our day, and the consequences for failing to do so appropriately are greater still. I might be wrong about that. But any time there's some new government proposal that's privatized outsourced and means tested, it means that receiving the benefits of that program are going to require a big additional burden. And can someone other than me point out that income is a flow which changes over time. Past income is no guarantee of future income. People shouldn't have to constantly worry about moving in and out of eligibility. And if you do it through the tax system, eligibility for all "middle class" friendly stuff phases out at about the same income level, meaning people face a massive effective tax rate, and unless it's a refundable credit, doesn't help the poor a damn bit.
Keep it simple stupids.
The Kids Today joke about "adulting" - actually taking the time to take care of all of the random shit they need to take care of in the adult sphere instead of taking their brunch selfies. I suspect that "adulting" is more time consuming than it used to be, that the need to check all the boxes and return the forms and return those confirmation calls fills more hours of our day, and the consequences for failing to do so appropriately are greater still. I might be wrong about that. But any time there's some new government proposal that's privatized outsourced and means tested, it means that receiving the benefits of that program are going to require a big additional burden. And can someone other than me point out that income is a flow which changes over time. Past income is no guarantee of future income. People shouldn't have to constantly worry about moving in and out of eligibility. And if you do it through the tax system, eligibility for all "middle class" friendly stuff phases out at about the same income level, meaning people face a massive effective tax rate, and unless it's a refundable credit, doesn't help the poor a damn bit.
Keep it simple stupids.
tl;dr
Your assignment for the day.
If Donald Trump is elected president, will he and his family permanently sever all connections to the Trump Organization, a sprawling business empire that has spread a secretive financial web across the world? Or will Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States?
Did I Say The Worst?
Heckuva job.
Another one who just wanted to bomb and then have a parade. Why can't they all be lovely little wars?
David Cameron’s intervention in Libya was carried out with no proper intelligence analysis, drifted into an unannounced goal of regime change and shirked its moral responsibility to help reconstruct the country following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, according to a scathing report by the foreign affairs select committee.
The failures led to the country becoming a failed a state on the verge of all-out civil war, the report adds.
The report, the product of a parliamentary equivalent of the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war, closely echoes the criticisms widely made of Tony Blair’s intervention in Iraq, and may yet come to be as damaging to Cameron’s foreign policy legacy.
It concurs with Barack Obama’s assessment that the intervention was “a shitshow”, and repeats the US president’s claim that France and Britain lost interest in Libya after Gaddafi was overthrown. The findings are also likely to be seized on by Donald Trump, who has tried to undermine Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy credentials by repeatedly condemning her handling of the Libyan intervention in 2011, when she was US secretary of state.
Another one who just wanted to bomb and then have a parade. Why can't they all be lovely little wars?
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Hot Pursuit
Stop the high speed chases over nonviolent crimes (and the violent ones, too, usually). People die.
HAMILTON TWP., N.J. (WPVI) -- Authorities say a man fleeing police after a drug deal crashed his SUV into another vehicle, killing the other driver.
Through The Looking Glass
The olds among us remember when it was controversial that candidate Bill Clinton played sax on the Arsenio Hall show. The political world will be glued to their televisions when candidate Trump gives his fake medical records to quack "miracle cure" purveyor Dr. Oz on the teevee.
Jayuuuuuuubs
One of the enduring contradictions in our discourse is that politicians are always promising their policies will create jobs and their proposals judged to some extent on whether their policies would actually create them. At the same time any tick down in the unemployment rate starting at about 6.5% increases the number of Very Serious People who demand that the Fed raise rates in order to choke off the job growth before we get wage (oh noees!) and price increases (inflation). Policies that create jobs are good, actual job growth is bad.
Weird how that works.
Weird how that works.
Tuesday Crass Commercialism
Get your very own self-driving Lamborgini. Okay, it's not quite self-driving, but the driver isn't actually physically in the seat... close enough.
Tweedledee and Tweedledum
That the vapid twins have people that think their insights are, well, insightful does not surprise me. That none of their peers - who, in their own way, they represent - ever call them out on it does a bit, I admit.
As I said, my contempt for the politics coverage in this country had started to wane a bit. Not that I thought it had entered some new enlightened era, just that some of the worst of it seemed to have diminished. Then 2016 happened.
As I said, my contempt for the politics coverage in this country had started to wane a bit. Not that I thought it had entered some new enlightened era, just that some of the worst of it seemed to have diminished. Then 2016 happened.
Keep Your Eyes On The Road
Apparently Google screwed up by trying to make an autonomous car that was actually autonomous.
At least we'll have cruise control plus, which will be safe as long as you keep paying attention.
I've never understood the "oh, drivers will just take the wheel if ever they need to" concept. I guess that works if you're entering a parking garage or similar, but otherwise that driving thing operates at higher speeds. There isn't time.
I keep reading about how Singapore already has self-driving taxis. I guess?
The team knew what it would take to deliver a fully-autonomous system, known in the industry as L4, but some Google executives didn’t understand the complexity, according to one former member of the project. The person left to help run an active business with paying customers, something that’s missing from the car project. A Google spokesman declined to comment for this story.
Several years ago, some on the team wanted to push ahead with a service that didn’t require full automation, but Google co-founder Larry Page insisted on complete human driver replacement, another person said.
At least we'll have cruise control plus, which will be safe as long as you keep paying attention.
In 2012, Google let employees test a partially autonomous system for automated highway driving and discovered the attention of the human drivers quickly drifted, leaving them incapable of taking back control quickly and safely. That persuaded the company to pursue full autonomy, even if it took longer.
I've never understood the "oh, drivers will just take the wheel if ever they need to" concept. I guess that works if you're entering a parking garage or similar, but otherwise that driving thing operates at higher speeds. There isn't time.
I keep reading about how Singapore already has self-driving taxis. I guess?
For now, the taxis are only running in a 2.5-square-mile business and residential district called "one-north," and pick-ups and drop-offs are limited to specified locations. And riders must have an invitation from nuTonomy to use the service. The company says dozens have signed up for the launch, and it plans to expand that list to thousands of people within a few months.
The cars — modified Renault Zoe and Mitsubishi i-MiEV electrics — have a driver in front who is prepared to take back the wheel and a researcher in back who watches the car's computers. Each car is fitted with six sets of Lidar — a detection system that uses lasers to operate like radar — including one that constantly spins on the roof. There are also two cameras on the dashboard to scan for obstacles and detect changes in traffic lights.
He Knows Too Much
I can't remember specifics, but a few times over the years I've heard this "excuse" expressed by journalists about why their "objective" coverage was perhaps maybe not quite as objective. Basically, it's because they know things the mere mortals known as the public don't know, and that those things justify monstering a candidate over anything they can make stick because.
But of course it's bullshit. Those secret things they know would be reported if they were important and, you know, verifiable. I'm sure gossip is currency in our political press corps, and most of these "things" are stories traded at the bar. "Everybody" knows them, they just don't know if they are true, though they probably think they know it.
Leaving aside the fact that what's plainly obvious about Donald Trump is clearly worse than any secret gossip about Hillary's role in killing Vince Foster.
One could pick apart the whole thing - oh, yes, the Clintons are the only presidents to hang out with "Wealthy McWealthersons" - but basically it's the kind of thing which confirms every liberal fear about a vapid, preening, self-important, privileged, and ultimately very stupid political press (#notallmembersofthepoliticalpress).
But of course it's bullshit. Those secret things they know would be reported if they were important and, you know, verifiable. I'm sure gossip is currency in our political press corps, and most of these "things" are stories traded at the bar. "Everybody" knows them, they just don't know if they are true, though they probably think they know it.
Leaving aside the fact that what's plainly obvious about Donald Trump is clearly worse than any secret gossip about Hillary's role in killing Vince Foster.
One could pick apart the whole thing - oh, yes, the Clintons are the only presidents to hang out with "Wealthy McWealthersons" - but basically it's the kind of thing which confirms every liberal fear about a vapid, preening, self-important, privileged, and ultimately very stupid political press (#notallmembersofthepoliticalpress).
Morning Thread
Primary Day here. For statewide offices, whichever Dem wins the primary, wins the election.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Oh, Inqy
The article in question was about the first thing I read after I got up this morning. My first reaction was positive, as it's rare to read an actual positive story about urban public schools which, despite various problems with the system, aren't always post-apocalyptic nightmares. But then I kept reading and just kept thinking "Oh, Inqy, you really did this, didn't you..."
Grifters Gonna Grift
A lot of eventheliberals who used to be supportive of charter schools have just kinda gone silent on the subject. I wonder why.
Of course individual charter schools can be good and run well, but the system as a whole was designed for grifters.
Of course individual charter schools can be good and run well, but the system as a whole was designed for grifters.
The Worst Prime Minister
It is true that David Cameron was horrible. It's also true that this mostly will never make it into the political discourse in the UK (except a few attempts by people like Owen Jones). He didn't just fail by the standards of his political opposition (an opposition which often failed to oppose), but he failed to live up to his own promises, both sincere and insincere. He's not the only one to blame. Austerity madness gripped almost everyone in power in the UK, even many members of the prominent Left, but as the Republicans here always do, Cameron used it as an excuse to abuse the less than rich and enrich those with more than enough. In truth, there wasn't even austerity, just a gutting of the social compact and social cohesion in the country. He lit the match to burn the place down and then ran out the back door.
...and as I was typing this, slammed it shut.
...and as I was typing this, slammed it shut.
Amateur Campaign Consultant
It's a bit difficult in a role - blogging! - which is admittedly largely about being right on the internet to resist the temptations of merely trying to be right on the internet. I figure my epic 37 part series on What The Clinton Campaign Should Do To Win will change the world for the better or affect the Clinton campaign not at all. That ship has a full crew and will do their thing no matter what I write on this blog, and there's already enough unsolicited (and hopefully generally unheard) advice from elsewhere.
A presidential campaign is largely theater wrapped around a core of policies, explicit and implied. The theater matter, I'm just not sure that yet another theater critic does.
Of course, depriving myself of putting on my Very Serious Political Journalist hat and commenting on "the optics" while making definitive statements about voter reactions absent any polls to back me up is, I admit, limiting. Much easier to feel it at you. But I try not to.
A presidential campaign is largely theater wrapped around a core of policies, explicit and implied. The theater matter, I'm just not sure that yet another theater critic does.
Of course, depriving myself of putting on my Very Serious Political Journalist hat and commenting on "the optics" while making definitive statements about voter reactions absent any polls to back me up is, I admit, limiting. Much easier to feel it at you. But I try not to.
Why Do People Love The Idea Of Monorails?
Basically any online discussion of mass transit has people chiming in saying we should build monorails. I've never been able to figure out why. I get mass transit haters. I don't get the monorail fetishists. Is it just that they thought they were cool when they rode one at Disney when they were kids? Have they not ridden one of the numerous airport monorails and noticed some of their obvious shortcomings?
But leaving aside any rational discussion of whether monorails are a superior choice over other options, they just seem to capture the imagination somehow. Two rails bad, one rail good!
I don't get it.
But leaving aside any rational discussion of whether monorails are a superior choice over other options, they just seem to capture the imagination somehow. Two rails bad, one rail good!
I don't get it.
Sunday, September 11, 2016
Jeremy Corbyn Doesn't Have A Plan To Win The Election
However sitting naked in a hot tub in Trafalgar Square for the next 4 years would probably be superior to Owen Smith's cunning plan.
Joining the Euro is right at the intersection of "wrong" and "hideous unpopular". At least it's a plan to win the election and that Corbyn doesn't have one.
Owen Smith has said the UK could apply to rejoin the EU if Labour wins power under his leadership – even if it means signing up to the euro and fully open borders.
Joining the Euro is right at the intersection of "wrong" and "hideous unpopular". At least it's a plan to win the election and that Corbyn doesn't have one.
A Better Way To Elect A President?
I'd suggest arm wrestling, but I'm not sure how Clinton would deal with Donald's sad tiny little hands.
That 9/11 Feeling
For some it was the greatest day of their lives.
For some, the last.
Potato, potahto.
I wish today people, especially young people, could go back in time to feel the gravity of the day. It was astounding.
— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) September 11, 2016
For some, the last.
Potato, potahto.
9/11 Day
It was horrible, then the country went mad. Not sure how one would explain it to The Kids Today except by propping their eyes open Clockwork Orange style, and forcing them to watch months of CNN from that time without interruption.
Or maybe Get Your War On.
Or maybe Get Your War On.
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