The Power Of Positive Thinking

Other Places Aren't Real

Awhile back I spent a month in Sicily. I'm not completely stupid. I travel a fair amount. I look at maps a lot (many people never do anymore). I have seen that big blob at the toe of the boot. Still, stuck in my mind was the idea that "Sicily is an island off the coast of mainland Italy." And islands are pretty small, right?

Sicily is actually quite big! It's bigger than New Jersey!

Generally, no matter how much I consult maps, I have a hard time getting the sense of the scale of a place before I actually visit. The consistent thing is everywhere is bigger than I expect.

Iran is very big.

Will Hopefully Will

 Okay then

At Least The War Is Over

I used to "joke" that the plan was to occupy Iraq until we had killed everyone who wanted us to leave. Then we would leave.

That was a lot more coherent than whatever the plan is with Iran.

Droney

I am mildly curious about when the brain geniuses in the Pentagon - I am sure there are some - started planning for a future in which everybody had access to cheap military drones.

Morning

Slacker Saturday

Friday Night

Rock on.

Afternoon

I got nothin'

Lunch

Shop while you eat! (Ad, I get a commission).

Not book smart or street smart or brain smart, but...somethin'

Can't argue with that, chief.

The Strait of Hormuz is open for transit, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping,” he said. “It is open for transit should Iran not do that.”

Mommy He Hit Me Back

"War with Iran is tricky because of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz" is something a precocious 9-year-old could tell you.

Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes, according to three sources familiar with the closed-door session.

 

It Started A Little Earlier

I think 'freedom of the seas' began its erosion when Hegseth started playing pew pew pew with boats in the Caribbean.

Freedom of the seas changed the world. Now, the world is changing in ways that threaten to make the global waters less free. The ability of people, goods and money to safely traverse the oceans turbocharged trade and underpinned global prosperity. American naval dominance has long kept the maritime commons secure.

But the current mess in the Middle East — especially Iran’s assault on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — is indicative of an era in which threats to freedom of the seas are increasing, chokepoints are growing more contested, and America’s ability to patrol the waves is in doubt.

I think we were doing a bit too much patrolling. 

Morning

Funky Friday

Thursday Night

Rock on.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Of The Willing?

Sure why not.

Speaking to Sky News' Wilfred Frost, Scott Bessent said: "My belief that as soon as it is militarily possible, the US Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will be escorting vessels through."

Market Wisdom

Stocks are down but not all that much. Clearly the money boys think that there's a floor, that if the line goes too far down then Trump will step in and fix whatever he broke. But what if he can't?

Seems Bad

I'm sure Jared and the gang were aware of this issue and have a plan.

The Gulf region is a key producer not only of liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil products but also of fertilizer. About one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been nearly entirely closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. In particular, Gulf countries are important producers of nitrogen fertilizers, which depend primarily on natural gas burned at high pressure in the presence of hydrogen to synthesize ammonia. (The hydrogen usually comes from natural gas as well.)

But it’s not just that Gulf fertilizer can’t make it to export markets such as Sudan, Brazil, or Sri Lanka. It’s also that fertilizer producers elsewhere lack key ingredients. This is where the second-order effects of a supply chain crisis appear, just as they did during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which sent fertilizer prices soaring.

Just Buy Some Insurance

Trump is Trump, but clearly the people around him pushed this idea before having any clue what it would entail (or if it would be workable at all).

Another reality is that the insurance safety net doesn’t address the core reason ships aren’t sailing, according to shipowners and insurance brokers.

“It’s more about the safety of the crews rather than taking on insurance for damages,” said Jerry Kalogiratos, Chief Executive of Capital Clean Energy Carriers, which runs more than 20 LNG carriers.

Insurance for ships in the region is readily available, with offers being made but not taken up, according to brokers. “Lloyd’s is open for business,” said Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo at insurance broker Marsh.

Maybe the Fox News crew will volunteer for this mission.

Welp

I haven't yet seen how this is all the fault of people trying to move us off fossil fuels, but I'm sure it's coming. Probably Yglesias will provide.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should close immediately as those bases will be attacked, in his first public statement since being appointed.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” he said, in televised comments translated by Reuters. Oil prices extended gains following the comments.