No Boom

Some good news. They are confident that they have averted the big explosion outcome in Garden Grove.

95%

Insider reporting from an unnamed White House official says the Iran deal is “95% done.”

The remaining 5% of negotiations are focused on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and turning over all nuclear material. https://t.co/GNlih9fUDj

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) May 24, 2026

The full Jennings tweet quoted:

After receiving a briefing from a Senior TRUMP Administration Official on the status of the Iran negotiations (someone in the know & not just speculating), I can tell you the following: 

-USA IS NOT GIVING IRANIANS MONEY FOR NOTHING. All speculation and propaganda to the contrary is false. Some hardline elements of Iran’s govt (IRGC) have pushed fake stories & propaganda to try to kill this negotiation.

-Iran deal is NOT done (95%, but still haggling over some language). No deal being signed today. May be a few more days before this is done. 

-Iran will NOT get any money or sanctions relief up front. 

-Iran must turn over nuclear stockpile to get anything. USA position is that failure to meet deal commitments means Iran gets nothing. 

-Long term USA objective is preventing Iran from having nuclear weapon.

-Initial deal point is to re-establish free flow of commerce by reopening Strait of Hormuz.

Deal should have 2 phases: 

Step 1 - Open Strait of Hormuz. Give world economy breathing room. Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium. 

Step 2 - Get the nuclear material turned over. Only then can Iran get sanctions relief. 

Bottom line: goal is to make a deal that lowers costs for Americans, calms world energy markets, and guarantees that Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon over the long term. We aren’t there yet. Iran takes forever to get you a response on even small things. But we are close although it still could be a few days. 

“If we get what we are demanding, this is going to be a historic deal,” SAO says.

SAO sounds prepared to do no deal at all if all Iran will do is a “bad deal.” SAO admits deal could fall apart yet. But if a deal is reached, SAO expects very senior USA admin officials to take part in a signing ceremony of some sort. 

Iran has agreed in principle to the framework but there are still a couple points USA isn’t satisfied with. 95% done. But literally changing words sometimes requires days in Iran’s system. Haggling over language. But USA feels like we have a commitment on nuclear stockpile and on opening Strait of Hormuz. 

If IRAN doesn’t deliver on commitments, they get nothing.

“Iran’s ability to project power is a lot more limited than it was two months ago,” SAO says. “Their industrial base for building ballistic missiles has been substantially destroyed.”

I honestly can't tell if Luntz is making a joke here or not. 

At Least The War Is Over

As I said before, Trump doesn't just lie, he believes he can manifest reality through his proclamations. I don't think most journalists get this.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says some progress has been made in talks with the United States with Pakistan’s mediation on “a large portion of the discussion topics”, but it does not mean that “the signing of an agreement is imminent”.

Iran's probably gonna hold out for getting Greenland.

(Just kidding, Greenlanders, you are not ours to give) 

 

I Was Proved Fucking Right

I don't know how much this is human nature generally and how much it is specific to the kind of person drawn to careers in public influence (punditry, top government positions, etc.), but it is certainly the case that many people in positions of influence would prefer to burn down Cincinnati (editor: where is that, again? our readers probably don't know) than admit to having ever been wrong about anything.

There was a brief "admitting we were wrong" period about Iraq. Lots of people who were wrong about Iraq were paid money to write pieces about being wrong about Iraq (funny how that works: those people must be listened to, even in error).  Most of the pieces were, at heart, pieces about the tragedy of someone with such a big brain being wrong and not the consequences of that.

If they'd burn down Cincinnati, they'd certainly nuke Iran, especially when so many of them want to anyway.

Morning

Holiday Monday Funday

At Least The War Is Over

 The greatest peace deal ever achieved (maybe).

Our Agent

Anyone who believed attacking Iran was a good idea for any reason was a sociopathic idiot, but as with many things, asking Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth to implement this cunning plan was insanity.

Oh No Our Precious War

Both Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham (plus all the usual suspects) are freaking out at the prospect of Trump's glorious Persian adventure ending as it will inevitably end (humiliating surrender by Uncle Sam, I mean the greatest peace deal ever made).

Mr. TRUMP, sir, you should not tolerate this disrespect and poor advice!

Or Maybe Not

Just like infrastructure week.

But Iranian officials have tempered expectations for a quick breakthrough. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said differences in the mediated talks between Tehran and Washington remain “deep and significant”, signalling that major obstacles still stand in the way of a formal agreement.

Something to understand about Trump is that he isn’t just a liar, though of course he is that. He truly believes in the power of willing the things he wants into being. Announcing things isn’t just lying. It is manifesting.

Morning

Sunday funday

At Least The War Is Over

We'll see!

Afternoon

The situation in the below post is not improving.

Evacuation

Scary stuff.

Emergency crews in Orange County are facing a highly complex race against time as they try to secure a bulging, pressurized tank loaded with 7,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate. Resolving the crisis has proven incredibly difficult due to a phenomenon known as a “thermal runaway” reaction, where the chemical generates its own uncontrollable heat, threatening either a massive toxic leak or a catastrophic explosion.

Evacuations around the failing tank in Garden Grove expanded to include tens of thousands of residents in six Orange County cities: Garden Grove, Cypress, Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park and Westminster.

Several years ago there was a near catastrophe in Philadelphia which could've killed everyone in the vicinity of Center City, including me.

The Harvard Daily

Harvad's grading policies should not be a regular topic for the New York Times.

Enough is enough, indeed! We know you all went to school near Boston! We don't care!

Also Jason Furman's career makes absolutely no sense except in the "it is who you know" sense.

Morning

Slacker Saturday.

Friday Evening

Onward to Cuba! (Probably)

Family Man

 

God Speed

I'm curious if he knows this is never happening and is just in on the grift or...

SpaceX may have failed to get Starship V3 off the ground on Thursday, but the company revealed some interesting information in the lead-up to its launch attempt. With less than 15 minutes left in the countdown, commentators introduced the man who plans to lead SpaceX’s first crewed mission to Mars.

During the live webcast, SpaceX played a video of cryptocurrency billionaire and civilian astronaut Chun Wang speaking from Bouvet Island in the South Atlantic Ocean. Wang, who has gone to space one time before, explained that he will embark on a Starship flyby of the Moon and Mars. SpaceX has not shared a target launch date for the mission, but it could be the world’s first interplanetary human spaceflight.

We Won't Have Tulsi Gabbard To Kick Around Anymore

Says she's resigning because her husband was diagnosed with cancer.

...or:

A source familiar with the matter said that ​Gabbard had been forced out by the White House.

Good Luck With That

Can't begin to comprehend what they are imagining they can accomplish.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul tells reporters that Germany is preparing to participate in securing the Strait of Hormuz under a UK-led mission, though he added that he did not see it as a NATO mission.

I don't claim to be an Advanced Military Understander but I do not think either country has much to offer here.