At Least The War Is Over

I am dumb about some things, but the more I think about it, the more it's clear that Iran should just hold out for Florida, or whatever. I mean, from their perspective, what exactly do they have to gain from "peace"?

WASHINGTON—For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.

This rapid chain of events suggests Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly threatened—and then backed away from—a massive escalation of its bombing campaign. But the recent chaos in negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared for a long and grinding conflict.

It is very funny:

One major complication for the Trump administration is money. Iran is seeking billions of dollars in war reparations in addition to an agreement to unfreeze the country’s assets around the world. Trump has said the White House wouldn’t allow any taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a deal appears unlikely without the U.S. unfreezing some assets, possibly with conditions attached.

"Business Decisions"

I will admit, in part because I am a optimist at heart, that Trump's overall "deport everybody" plans have been more aggressive in practice, if not in desire, than I expected, but it is probably the one general policy that was going to happen as promised.

If your business employed immigrants with less than stable status, and you truly though it would not affect you, then you need to recognize that you are a stupid, foolish person.

And I Had Such Hopes

Mr. Trump, sir, that Mr. Netanyahu is very unappreciative of all you have done for him.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected US President Donald Trump's 15-point plan for Gaza, stating that no military pull-out will happen until Hamas is "genuinely" disarmed.

Hamas will not be disarmed until they no longer want arms, you see. 

Sunday Funday

Each more fun than the last.

Last Sunday I did a 10 mile race (I did not win) which wiped me out for 2 days. Half marathon soon...

Saturday Evening

Enjoy

This Is A Great Victory, Sir, The Greatest

A most excellent outcome.

“However, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on other conditions, including the United States compensating for its violations of the Islamabad Memorandum,” Mr. Araghchi was quoted as saying, referring to the cease-fire agreement that Iran and the United States signed in June.

The June agreement — a “memorandum of understanding” brokered by Pakistani mediators in Islamabad — called for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. Yet the deal’s language was vague, and the United States and Iran had differing interpretations of what it meant.

The "differing interpretations" were just that Trump had no idea what he had agreed to, and then decided he didn't like it.

The first draft of history sucks ass.

One For Troop Respecter Tapper

I suppose I should go check to see if he is ON IT.

Morale is plummeting on an American aircraft carrier that's running short of food and other supplies as its exhausted crew wages President Donald Trump's war against Iran, worried family members say.

Sailors and Marines serving on the USS Abraham Lincoln have told relatives about being served a half-cup of rice and two tortillas for a meal, and said the ship's store often lacks soap, deodorant and toothpaste, MS NOW reported Wednesday.

Scurvy AND protein deficiency.

I forget what they changed, but it used to be very easy to search CNN transcripts and now it's less easy, at least as far as I can figure out. 

I didn't go through them all, but none of the segment titles of Tapper's show Wed-Fri refer to it.

Tapper made Troop Respecter his brand but he is pretty inconsistent!

"Privately"

That source's name? Can Daine. 

Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achieve President Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.

Morning

Slacker Saturday.

Friday Evening

Enjoy

The Fourth Way

One failing I will admit to is being a bit too ready to take the bait of newspaper articles touting Third Way as representing a force within the Democratic tent. I don't think you can dismiss them entirely, and they do speak for forces greater than their dumb organization, but the main power of that organization is finding journalists in our premier publications who are willing to type up anything they say.

That's an indictment of political journalism, and worth observing, but it isn't, mostly, an indictment of The Democrats.

Fear of Consequences

Institutions and individuals are not as fearful as I would like them to be that there will be consequences for their complicity when President Democrat, or even just Senate Majority Leader Democrat, is in charge.

We can debate why, precisely, that is.

Ah, Well, Too Late

Likely the Supremos will swat it down with some version of that:

The Trump administration has been ordered to stop construction on President Donald Trump's $400m (£297m) ballroom at the White House.

But it is never too late.

A group of property developers have been ordered to rebuild a Grade II-listed pub that they demolished without permission.

The historic Punch Bowl Inn at Hurst Green, Lancashire, needs to be rebuilt brick by brick within a year, a judge has ruled.

Sure Elon

One depressing thing has been feeling like it was necessary - starting with HYPERLOOP specifically - to swat away Elon's fantasies because they should be understood to be ridiculous without refutation.

You might think about rockets as powerful vehicles that blast astronaut crews and robotic missions off into space. But what if they could be used to send cargo from one side of the Earth to the other, in a fraction of the time it would take a plane? The company SpaceX recently announced a project that aims to use its rockets to do just that.

Most goods, at scale, don't be be need to shipped across the globe quickly. Things spoil. Some time-sensitive specialty production inputs. That's about it. Those that do have plenty of plane-based freight options that can get from airport to airport in under 24 hours.

We have a large number of airports in close proximity to population.  We are unlikely to have a large number of launchpads. Even as a niche product, even if it works it doesn't actually work unless your time sensitive goods can get to and from the departure/arrival points quickly.

Space cargo transport likely will not replace conventional transportation methods, such as sea shipping or air freight. Instead, it offers a new option: ultrafast emergency transport. This type of transport could deliver critical medical products, deploy emergency disaster relief, or supply urgent defense support within a few hours.

The only way to have broad launch coverage is if it operates at scale. If you don't have a launchpad near you, it isn't fast.

Sure we might have 25th century technology eventually, but rockets as we currently have them are not going to provide useful freight transport.

[oops typos fixed]

They Are Begging Me, With Tears In Their Eyes, "Please, Sir, Show Mercy"

I am wondering if there are ever conversations in newsrooms with journalists considering whether they should tone down criticism of Trump (and increase the praise) in order to encourage him to do the right thing.

WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump ​on Thursday told reporters that he believed ‌the war with Iran would be over soon and said the armed forces were experiencing issues ​with supplies of some weapons.

"I think ​it's going to end pretty soon. I ⁠don't think they can go much ​longer," Trump said in the Oval Office ​in a reference to Iran.

I'm not saying this is happening, but it is the case that the probability of ending the war is more likely the more we all pretend Iran has surrendered unconditionally and Trump has managed to get the best deal in human history.

Extra points for "Barack Obama started the war, which President Trump ended."

Gotta have full team effort to create the pretend world for the president.

Jobs

I'm sure others will have more detailed analysis, but the headline number for the monthly jobs report is -23,000.

Morning

Firkin Friday.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Growing Up Trump

I regularly ponder what it must like to grow be be an older child/teen with President Trump. Your sense of what authority figures are supposed to be like must get a bit warped.

Fees

Funny to remember that when Trump briefly declared that the US would run the Hormuz toll both, he came up with 20%.

According to the senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.