Afternoon

I got nothin'

Lunch

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Not book smart or street smart or brain smart, but...somethin'

Can't argue with that, chief.

The Strait of Hormuz is open for transit, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping,” he said. “It is open for transit should Iran not do that.”

Mommy He Hit Me Back

"War with Iran is tricky because of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz" is something a precocious 9-year-old could tell you.

Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes, according to three sources familiar with the closed-door session.

 

It Started A Little Earlier

I think 'freedom of the seas' began its erosion when Hegseth started playing pew pew pew with boats in the Caribbean.

Freedom of the seas changed the world. Now, the world is changing in ways that threaten to make the global waters less free. The ability of people, goods and money to safely traverse the oceans turbocharged trade and underpinned global prosperity. American naval dominance has long kept the maritime commons secure.

But the current mess in the Middle East — especially Iran’s assault on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — is indicative of an era in which threats to freedom of the seas are increasing, chokepoints are growing more contested, and America’s ability to patrol the waves is in doubt.

I think we were doing a bit too much patrolling. 

Morning

Funky Friday

Thursday Night

Rock on.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Of The Willing?

Sure why not.

Speaking to Sky News' Wilfred Frost, Scott Bessent said: "My belief that as soon as it is militarily possible, the US Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will be escorting vessels through."

Market Wisdom

Stocks are down but not all that much. Clearly the money boys think that there's a floor, that if the line goes too far down then Trump will step in and fix whatever he broke. But what if he can't?

Seems Bad

I'm sure Jared and the gang were aware of this issue and have a plan.

The Gulf region is a key producer not only of liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil products but also of fertilizer. About one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been nearly entirely closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. In particular, Gulf countries are important producers of nitrogen fertilizers, which depend primarily on natural gas burned at high pressure in the presence of hydrogen to synthesize ammonia. (The hydrogen usually comes from natural gas as well.)

But it’s not just that Gulf fertilizer can’t make it to export markets such as Sudan, Brazil, or Sri Lanka. It’s also that fertilizer producers elsewhere lack key ingredients. This is where the second-order effects of a supply chain crisis appear, just as they did during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which sent fertilizer prices soaring.

Just Buy Some Insurance

Trump is Trump, but clearly the people around him pushed this idea before having any clue what it would entail (or if it would be workable at all).

Another reality is that the insurance safety net doesn’t address the core reason ships aren’t sailing, according to shipowners and insurance brokers.

“It’s more about the safety of the crews rather than taking on insurance for damages,” said Jerry Kalogiratos, Chief Executive of Capital Clean Energy Carriers, which runs more than 20 LNG carriers.

Insurance for ships in the region is readily available, with offers being made but not taken up, according to brokers. “Lloyd’s is open for business,” said Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo at insurance broker Marsh.

Maybe the Fox News crew will volunteer for this mission.

Welp

I haven't yet seen how this is all the fault of people trying to move us off fossil fuels, but I'm sure it's coming. Probably Yglesias will provide.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should close immediately as those bases will be attacked, in his first public statement since being appointed.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” he said, in televised comments translated by Reuters. Oil prices extended gains following the comments.

Iran Expert Signing On

I am not, obviously, but unlike most of the Trumpers, I probably could point to Iran on an unlabeled map.

You know Hegseth fired or sidelined anybody competent (or they extracted themselves), anybody who said anything other than, "boom boom kill kill win win."

"Real men go to Tehran" was long the mantra of the real nutters, none of whom would ever actually go to Tehran, of course.

I don't claim to have any insight about what will happen. My opinion on this stuff is of equivalent value to any random guy down at the bar. But it doesn't seem to be certain that Iran will offer any kind of face-saving (for Trump) "surrender" that he will demand.

They know very well that you can't make any deals with President Deals.

Morning

Thirsty Thursday

Wednesday Night

Rock on.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Beta Cucks

The insecure vanity of all these weirdos.

The Defense Department has barred press photographers from briefings on the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran after they published photos of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that his staff deemed “unflattering,” according to two people familiar with the decision who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation.

Real men don't care about stupid pictures.

@Grok, Is This A Good Target

War is hell, and I don't mean that glibly. Kids die.

The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, people briefed on the investigation said.

Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.

Someone forgot to type, "@Grok are you sure?"

Lunch

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